ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Bocadude85
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Re:

#3361 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 605W, 30, 1006, LO, 34,

NHC is unimpressed. That just updated 6 minutes ago.



I am not really surprised they have not upgraded this. I am sure they want to make sure this doesnt go poof in the next few hours
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#3362 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:50 pm

Image

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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3363 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:50 pm

I have never seen such a delay. They found a center and winds on all sides right??? I mean not the healthiest of all storms, but what is the criteria that I am missing? Does this have to last for 6 hours for it to be declared? Wow for us tropical enthusiasts, it's complete torture!! :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3364 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:50 pm

If they upgrade now, then they would have to issue instant TS warnings. not very attractive.
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#3365 Postby southerngale » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:51 pm

artist wrote:
southerngale wrote:Let's try to keep this thread to models and model discussion. Thanks. :)

That discussion was about the models, southerngale. Do you want us to keep all the local discussions about the models in the general thread then, right?



No, it wasn't about that discussion. Just a general reminder after reading several pages.
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#3366 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:52 pm

GFS farther north.. and ridging little weaker..
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Re:

#3367 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:52 pm

lonelymike wrote:Ship really doesn't do much with this system barely a hurricane.



Barely and hurricane shouldn't be in the same sentence imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3368 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:52 pm

drezee wrote:If they upgrade now, then they would have to issue instant TS warnings. not very attractive.



They have been suggesting that there would be short fuse warnings in the updates though.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3369 Postby maxx9512 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:53 pm

Should not be suprized about the non-upgrade givien the up and down, up and down history
of this storm. Gun-shy I suppose. I would be!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3370 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:53 pm

drezee wrote:If they upgrade now, then they would have to issue instant TS warnings. not very attractive.

but they have been warning people that .. that was likely to happen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3371 Postby underthwx » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:53 pm

Folks Im new here and I apologize if I did something wrong.....Ill keep my posts limited and watch and learn from this forum as Ive done for years...Thanks :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3372 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:55 pm

Well if she is a tropical storm ????? then Emily is no beauty queen. Perhaps she'll be an "ugly duckling" who grows up to wow all the guys at the prom. Latest image.
Image
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Re: Re:

#3373 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:55 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Ship really doesn't do much with this system barely a hurricane.



Barely and hurricane shouldn't be in the same sentence imo.



Well let me amend that to major hurricane status :D
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#3374 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:56 pm

I never saw a west wind from Recon. Did I miss something?
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Re: Re:

#3375 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:56 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
I am not really surprised they have not upgraded this. I am sure they want to make sure this doesnt go poof in the next few hours


Yep, no real problem at this stage in waiting for a few extra hours, afterall I'm sure the NHC has warned most people behind the scenes of a possible storm/hurricane to come in a few days time.

I honestly think this burst is the one thats going to tip it into a proper strengthening phase, the MLC will form over the LLC and it'll get stacked and things will get going.
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Re:

#3376 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:57 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:I never saw a west wind from Recon. Did I miss something?


Here's a whole page of them

URNT15 KNHC 012146
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 34 20110801
213600 1456N 06136W 9760 00274 0067 +248 +232 313015 015 009 003 00
213630 1454N 06136W 9761 00273 0068 +249 +233 306014 015 015 001 00
213700 1453N 06135W 9760 00274 0069 +250 +233 304014 015 010 002 00
213730 1451N 06134W 9759 00277 0070 +250 +233 300014 014 014 001 00
213800 1450N 06133W 9761 00275 0070 +250 +233 300013 015 014 001 00
213830 1448N 06133W 9757 00279 0070 +245 +233 304014 014 014 000 00
213900 1447N 06132W 9759 00278 0071 +246 +233 305014 014 011 001 00
213930 1445N 06131W 9759 00276 0071 +245 +233 305013 014 013 000 00
214000 1444N 06131W 9761 00274 0070 +248 +233 300013 014 008 000 00
214030 1442N 06130W 9759 00277 0070 +250 +233 284014 014 005 002 00
214100 1441N 06129W 9758 00278 0071 +250 +232 278012 013 009 000 00
214130 1440N 06128W 9758 00277 0071 +249 +233 284012 012 006 001 00
214200 1438N 06128W 9761 00275 0070 +250 +233 282012 012 005 001 00
214230 1437N 06127W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +233 284012 013 005 002 00
214300 1435N 06126W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +232 288012 014 006 001 00
214330 1434N 06126W 9760 00276 0070 +251 +232 288013 014 006 002 00
214400 1432N 06125W 9758 00276 0069 +250 +232 295015 016 009 000 00
214430 1431N 06124W 9761 00275 0069 +250 +232 303014 014 007 001 00
214500 1429N 06124W 9761 00274 0069 +250 +232 306014 014 007 000 00
214530 1428N 06123W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +232 307014 014 008 001 00
$$
;
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#3377 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:57 pm

Sorry missed that set :-(
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#3378 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:57 pm

There were also a couple 255 and 258 earlier..
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Re:

#3379 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:58 pm

vacanechaser wrote:everyone talking about it going over hispaniola.. lets remember, if it stays weaker before crossing, then the disruption will be less.. sounds crazy but i remember a system a few years ago staying weak as it crossed and it did little to disrupt the circulation.. just a thought.. it tends to be a bigger problem with stronger systems...

Its not crazy at all. I often think the same thing when people talk about the effect of the mountains of Hispaniola.


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#3380 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:58 pm

Observation 35


000
URNT15 KNHC 012156
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 35 20110801
214600 1426N 06122W 9760 00275 0069 +255 +232 312014 014 007 001 00
214630 1425N 06121W 9760 00275 0070 +253 +232 317014 014 007 002 00
214700 1424N 06121W 9761 00275 0070 +250 +232 319013 014 006 002 03
214730 1422N 06120W 9757 00278 0070 +250 +232 326014 014 010 000 03
214800 1420N 06120W 9761 00275 0071 +250 +232 329013 013 010 000 00
214830 1419N 06120W 9758 00278 0071 +250 +233 333012 012 007 000 00
214900 1417N 06120W 9762 00274 0071 +250 +233 332011 011 009 000 00
214930 1416N 06120W 9760 00278 0071 +250 +233 330011 011 008 001 00
215000 1414N 06121W 9757 00280 0071 +249 +233 338011 011 007 001 00
215030 1414N 06121W 9757 00280 0071 +245 +233 341011 012 008 001 00
215100 1411N 06121W 9760 00276 0071 +245 +232 341012 012 011 000 00
215130 1409N 06121W 9760 00278 0072 +245 +232 341012 013 007 001 00
215200 1408N 06121W 9761 00276 0072 +245 +231 339011 012 005 002 00
215230 1406N 06121W 9761 00277 0073 +245 +230 336010 011 004 000 00
215300 1404N 06121W 9760 00279 0073 +245 +230 330010 010 004 001 00
215330 1403N 06121W 9761 00278 0073 +245 +229 333011 011 002 003 00
215400 1401N 06121W 9760 00278 0073 +245 +229 339012 012 004 001 00
215430 1400N 06121W 9761 00278 0074 +245 +228 335011 011 005 001 00
215500 1358N 06121W 9758 00281 0075 +248 +228 337011 011 003 001 00
215530 1356N 06121W 9761 00278 0075 +249 +228 337010 011 005 001 00
$$
;
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