ATL: IRENE - Models

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gatorcane
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#3381 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:42 am

Wow may even miss the Bahamas (and maybe U.S.) in this run if it hits that huge weakness!!!
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#3382 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:43 am

That trough is lifting out very quick though. Ridge should build back in before the second trough comes.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3383 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:43 am

Thanks for the info - :wink: Jeez, never really realized thats just as bad as the EURO ( in terms of run delay ). The GFS 500mb I check out, typically indicates the 500mb values. Chris, given that these maps are depicting the surface pressure values, could you comment if you happen to see any distinct change from the previous run? ( assuming you have both to look at ).
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#3384 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:44 am

Ridging still there, enough to probably not let it escape...

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3385 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:44 am

06Z GFS @ 06 hours

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12Z GFS @ 00 Hour

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#3386 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:44 am

+30hrs - Moving NW / NNW - Ridge building back in?

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Edit: Moving WNW
Last edited by chris_fit on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3387 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:46 am

I definitely do not concur with your "NW-NNW" movement....from 18hr to 30hr it's heading WNW...
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#3388 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:46 am

Heading WNW right along the northern coast:

Ridging still there...

Will the ridge build back in though like the NAM is showing?

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3389 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:47 am

AdamFirst wrote:I definitely do not concur with your "NW-NNW" movement....from 18hr to 30hr it's heading WNW...


Yea I take that back... thought it jogged, didn't look at it long enough.
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#3390 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:47 am

+36 Hrs .. deepening

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#3391 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:48 am

chris_fit wrote:+30hrs - Moving NW / NNW - Ridge building back in?

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Chris, awesome job posting the updating maps, but........ NW/NNW? I have to admit, my eyes are not close to what they used to be, but I don't know...., looks like steady WNW to me.
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#3392 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:49 am

Seems to be slower than other runs?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3393 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:49 am

Comparing the two runs, Troughing is definitely flatting out in the short term.

06Z @ 24 Hours
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12Z @ 30 Hours

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Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3394 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:49 am

How does the run compare to the 06z so far?
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#3395 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

+42 hrs... seems to be moving pretty slow to the WNW/NW

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3396 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

You can also see the system tightening up @ hour 39.
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#3397 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

Looks like ridging it slowly trying to build back in on top (Bermuda High ridge)
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#3398 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:52 am

The multi-model trend is worrying for the mainland. The core of Irene should now spend much more time over water now than land. :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3399 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:53 am

I will do a comparison of hour 48 from the 6Z and hour 54 from the 12z to see what the difference is.
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#3400 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:53 am

+48Hrs... still WNW Ridge seems to be creeping back to the W, W of Bermuda

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Last edited by chris_fit on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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