ATL: IRENE - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

I will do a comparison of hour 48 from the 6Z and hour 54 from the 12z to see what the difference is.

An accurate comparison would be 54 hours from the 6Z and 48 hours from the 12Z so we are comparing the same time frame.

[BensonTCwatcher]

That's what was covered (the ridge building back) in this mornings NHC dicussion. A lot of folks were watching the wrong trough relative to the forecast window. The zonal flow setup will keep this close the FL coast (close enough to be a real concern) under any likelihood.

[chris_fit]

+54hrs... still moving WNW... ridging trying to make it all the way west to NC!




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[SFLcane]

About to make that NW turn?

[micktooth]

Thanks for posting the model runs for those of us who are unable to do so. Is it me, or do these runs always seem excruciatingly slow to run...anticipation...

[SouthFloridawx]

06Z at 48 Hours


12Z at 54 Hours

[Blown Away]

Will somebody kick the GFS machine so it will kick out the 60 hour chart!!

[chris_fit]

+ 60 hrs.... starting to go a little more NW




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[gatorcane]

Looks like it will go East of Florida again on this run.

[jhpigott]

+ 60 hrs.... starting to go a little more NW




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looks like it is going to pass safely off to the E of FL again

[chris_fit]

+66 hrs... bombing out in the Bahamas - moving NW



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[BensonTCwatcher]

So by this evening we'll have a hyperbolic media consensus on the models for a Charleston doomsday scenario?? We shoudl be used to that by now. The reality is that I am liking the handle the pros have on this from a forecast point of view. The 3 day window of "nailing it" seems to be reliable looking at what the models are telling us i.e. I don't see bogey here in the synoptics, just the "usual" difficulty timing the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere

[chris_fit]

+72hrs -NW



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[Blown Away]

Slow moving.

[Blown Away]

72 hours, trough retreats a bit ridge building. No recurve I bet!!

[Stormcenter]

It's hard to believe that almost a week ago the GFS had Irene hitting New Orleans at a major hurricane.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the Low over NE mexico will do the job of venting ther SW outflow. Models seem to be confirming this will be the case this group of runs?

[SouthFloridawx]

East of Florida it looks like indeed on this run.

[storm4u]

im guessing you dont see whats digging like crazy near the great lakes

72 hours, trough retreats a bit ridge building. No recurve I bet!!

[GTStorm]

So by this evening we'll have a hyperbolic media consensus on the models for a Charleston doomsday scenario?? We shoudl be used to that by now. The reality is that I am liking the handle the pros have on this from a forecast point of view. The 3 day window of "nailing it" seems to be reliable looking at what the models are telling us i.e. I don't see bogey here in the synoptics, just the "usual" difficulty timing the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere

Charleston, followed by Wilmington tomorrow, and then the Outer Banks on Wednesday...that's my projection, anyway.

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