ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

Welcome Emily. You kept us waiting long enough, I'd say

Talk about some labor pains getting her here...Geez! I'm thinking everyone on S2K should go and have a pink cigar now.

SFT

[HurricaneWarning92]

Emily is finally born.

[Aric Dunn]

now that we have emily and lots of data.. tonights 00z should be interesting..

[Fyzn94]

I'm expecting the first advisory in about an hour...

[Extratropical94]

I forgot 36

URNT15 KNHC 012206
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 36 20110801
215600 1355N 06121W 9761 00279 0075 +250 +228 330010 010 006 001 00
215630 1353N 06121W 9761 00279 0075 +250 +227 327008 009 006 001 00
215700 1352N 06121W 9758 00282 0075 +245 +227 331007 008 004 002 00
215730 1350N 06121W 9760 00280 0076 +245 +227 328007 007 004 001 00
215800 1349N 06121W 9761 00280 0077 +245 +227 312007 007 005 000 00
215830 1347N 06121W 9761 00281 0078 +245 +227 297007 007 003 003 00
215900 1345N 06121W 9760 00283 0078 +245 +226 287007 007 007 001 00
215930 1344N 06121W 9755 00286 0078 +240 +226 254005 007 011 002 00
220000 1342N 06121W 9766 00274 0076 +236 +225 182006 008 018 002 00
220030 1341N 06121W 9764 00276 0075 +240 +224 167005 005 019 002 00
220100 1339N 06121W 9764 00276 0075 +241 +222 192002 004 022 001 03
220130 1338N 06122W 9762 00277 0076 +239 +222 194001 005 018 003 00
220200 1337N 06122W 9757 00283 0076 +242 +220 330007 008 016 003 00
220230 1335N 06123W 9764 00276 0076 +240 +219 321009 010 012 008 00
220300 1334N 06123W 9758 00283 0078 +237 +218 307008 008 /// /// 03
220330 1333N 06122W 9760 00281 0077 +235 +217 290009 009 010 005 03
220400 1332N 06120W 9757 00283 0078 +235 +215 275008 008 020 002 03
220430 1332N 06119W 9757 00284 0079 +237 +212 263008 008 010 002 00
220500 1332N 06117W 9762 00279 0078 +241 +209 239008 009 009 001 00
220530 1332N 06116W 9759 00282 0078 +240 +209 215009 010 012 001 00
$$
;


and here is Observation 38


000
URNT15 KNHC 012226
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 38 20110801
221600 1332N 06043W 9760 00286 0082 +240 +222 141005 006 007 001 00
221630 1332N 06042W 9760 00285 0081 +240 +222 150005 006 007 000 00
221700 1332N 06040W 9759 00285 0081 +240 +222 155005 006 008 000 00
221730 1332N 06039W 9760 00285 0080 +240 +222 158006 006 004 002 00
221800 1331N 06037W 9761 00283 0081 +241 +221 157007 007 006 000 00
221830 1331N 06036W 9759 00286 0082 +240 +221 144007 007 009 000 00
221900 1331N 06034W 9760 00286 0083 +240 +221 138008 008 007 000 00
221930 1331N 06033W 9761 00285 0083 +241 +221 155008 009 006 001 00
222000 1331N 06031W 9761 00285 0083 +240 +220 151008 008 008 000 00
222030 1331N 06030W 9759 00287 0084 +240 +220 149008 009 002 003 03
222100 1332N 06028W 9761 00286 0084 +240 +220 138008 009 007 001 00
222130 1333N 06027W 9760 00287 0084 +240 +220 147008 008 006 001 00
222200 1333N 06025W 9761 00286 0084 +240 +220 144008 008 006 000 00
222230 1334N 06024W 9757 00288 0083 +240 +220 143008 009 004 000 03
222300 1335N 06023W 9764 00284 0084 +240 +220 142009 009 009 000 00
222330 1336N 06022W 9764 00283 0084 +240 +220 141011 011 010 000 00
222400 1337N 06021W 9765 00282 0084 +240 +220 148011 013 009 001 00
222430 1339N 06020W 9764 00284 0084 +240 +219 152011 012 011 001 00
222500 1340N 06019W 9765 00281 0085 +231 +220 151012 013 021 006 00
222530 1341N 06018W 9764 00284 0085 +238 +218 153013 013 009 001 03
$$
;

[stormreader]

I'm sure NHC has reasons for holding back and I suspect that it is to verify that this center remains viable as it appears to be doing so per sat. presentation.

Thank You. I don't understand why some seem angry that this system has not been called yet. C'mon. Everyone knows that this system has been tough to get a handle on for several days now. No one is better qualified than the guys at NHC to make the call (sounds like I'm sucking up--but not really). And last, if it really is a TC like many think, then what difference will a few hours make??

[KWT]

I'm expecting the first advisory in about an hour...

I expect them to track over Hispaniola, T&C and through the E.Bahamas and slow down to reflect uncertainty past 96hrs.

[painkillerr]

Welcome EMILY... you only took 100 pages in S2K to show your face!!!!

[knotimpaired]

Welcome EMILY... you only took 100 pages in S2K to show your face!!!!

But not offical yet??

[gatorcane]

yeah... its a lot stronger this run...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah it is. The models have indeed shifted west over the past day or so, but only because they were reacting to an unorganized system. Today the system has improved in organization and we have a possible LLC that the models can initialize better on.

The system would need to stay a broad low to move more west and in that case, I can't see it developing enough to become a significant (hurricane or major hurricane) for Florida. The reasoning behind that is because if it actually develops then it goes east of Florida it looks like (maybe even east of the Bahamas), there is not much ridging at all to bend it back West.

The way it hits Florida right now is if it stays weak and moves WNW through some islands with some high mountains to disrupt the circulation....leaving it not much time to become a significant system into Florida.

In general the way Florida is vulnerable to a significant system is when there is a building ridge to bend a system West with a direct hit from the east (AKA Frances or Andrew)

OR

There is a big weakness over Florida that can cause a hurricane in the Caribbean to start a recurve path South of Cuba, especially a recurve path from the Western Caribbean where the system can go over Western Cuba which does not have alot of high mountains (Wilma, Charley, etc).

Most of Florida's hits come from the South not the East (i.e. the latter scenario not the former)

[KWT]

I think its the jump NNW from Hispaniola that causes the system to get taken up further east then previous runs...not going to be able to say either way whats likely in that respect...given mountions can do interesting things to storms...

nopte the ridging is a good deal weaker...

Gatorcane, interesting but previous runs have seen this system bomb and still head WNW/NW close to Florida...so not sure its all because of strength, I think its highly likely just a case that the upper ridging is quite ALOT weaker this run eyeballing it...

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

yeah... its a lot stronger this run...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah it is. The models have indeed shifted west over the past day or so, but only because they were reacting to an unorganized system. Today the system has improved in organization and we have a possible LLC that the models can initialize better on.

The system would need to stay a broad low to move more west and in that case, I can't see it developing enough to become a significant (hurricane or major hurricane) for Florida. The reasoning behind that is because if it actually develops then it goes east of Florida it looks like (maybe even east of the Bahamas), there is not much ridging at all to bend it back West.

The way it hits Florida right now is if it stays weak and moves WNW through some islands with some high mountains to disrupt the circulation....leaving it not much time to become a significant system into Florida.

In general the way Florida is vulnerable to a significant system is when there is a building ridge to bend a system West with a direct hit from the east (AKA Frances or Andrew)

OR

There is a big weakness over Florida that can cause a hurricane in the Caribbean to start a recurve path South of Cuba, especially a recurve path from the Western Caribbean where the system can go over Western Cuba which does not have alot of high mountains (Wilma, Charley, etc).

Most of Florida's hits come from the South not the East (i.e. the latter scenario not the former)

to many factors yet.. land interaction.. also its still screaming straight west GFS initializes wnw .. also this is the 18z no new data inputed. for sure need to wait for 00z

[madinina]

Hi,

Emily or not?
What's happen for the sea? Because there are people on the sea, for a course of "yoles"( famous boat from martinique). They are in "protected aera" near coast, for the night...
For the moment, people think it will be just rain, that's right? The alert change just one hour and half ago.
Thanks you

[bella_may]

still wouldnt be surprised to see the westward model trends continue

[JPmia]

GFS appears to ramp her/it up quickly.. do we really believe this will happen considering what we've gone through today? lol

[knotimpaired]

Google Earth says "Low (emily)" I am confused, please straighten me out. Does this mean she is a TS?

[KWT]

GFS appears to ramp her/it up quickly.. do we really believe this will happen considering what we've gone through today? lol

simple answer is yes...probably will be able to develop at a decent clip from now on...

[AdamFirst]

It's official. It has been RENUMBERED and recon supports a tropical storm.

[bella_may]

im still not sold on the recurve. i still expect this thing to go in eastern gulf or even possibly the central gulf. JMO