ATL: IRENE - Models

[Blown Away]

18z TVCN looks a bit W.

[Jevo]

Common sense has me following Irene East of FL along with the consensus.. Living in South florida and watching Katrina, Frances, Jeanne, and Charlie has me still on the look out

[Scorpion]

12Z Euro is well east of the NHC's track. Looks like it's hooking right as it nears the SC coast. Will probably show a NC landfall.

Or miss the CONUS all together

Huh? Euro showed a further west landfall

[GTStorm]

12Z Euro is well east of the NHC's track. Looks like it's hooking right as it nears the SC coast. Will probably show a NC landfall.

No...it actually hooked left into the NC/SC border...crawling inland

so....what long range feature would have it doing that? something new to consider?

[SeminoleWind]

i just keep thinking back to Frances and how she was forecast to pass to the north of us and then it seemed like we only had a couple days to prepare.
i know this is not the same setup as Frances but i would sure feel better when the G-IV data comes in

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I guess we have 24 to 36 hours to wait... if its still heading more wnw by that time.. the models are going to shift back west. nothing else to do but watch her spin either over or by hispaniola.

Unfortunately, you could be right on us all just having to wait to know. I'm in camp with you...I am a little surprised to not see a ridge of any significance on the majority of the models, even though you would expect it to be there and have a distinct affect on Irene's path. The problem is, while a huge population sees just the line, and not the cone, they will not think seriously about this threat. If it isn't another day or 2 until we know of a shift in path, that will result in added chaos to enact plans (or even think about them the first time around!) for many people that dismissed this threat yesterday or today.

i.e. lets hope FL folks don't watch tonight's nightly news to see this passing far out to sea and assume all is safe. If something changes, they may not know until they are already in a watch/warning area. It will take a lot of time to move that many people...and to where???

[plazaglass]

What data does the Gulfstream flight provide that the other missions do not? Is it used more for track or intensity, or both?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What data does the Gulfstream flight provide that the other missions do not? Is it used more for track or intensity, or both?

samples the surrounding environment at various levels

[AdamFirst]

What data does the Gulfstream flight provide that the other missions do not? Is it used more for track or intensity, or both?

Gulfstream dropsondes provide data in the upper atmosphere...high pressure and things of that sort. It gives an idea on how the setup will be around and ahead of a storm

[Aric Dunn]

18z TVCN looks a bit W.

yeah it is up to the northern bahamas. and a little to right near the NC coast.. typical of very sharp forecast turns. ever run it does not turn the sharpness increases till they have to shift again.. only time will tell

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ok,

Someone please clarify several post up someone stated that the Euro had shifted west and brushed S.FLA. But I see no other post about it, I don't thnk it has even run yet.

[bucman1]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

[Aric Dunn]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

probably hurricane jeanne in 2004..

[micktooth]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

Go back and check the Katrina archives, simply amazing!

[SeminoleWind]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

hurricane Charley comes to mind

[JPmia]

Speaking of G-IV plane data.. When they had a similiar schedule like today with Emily, the models didn't reflect that data until the next day at 12z... meaning this afternoon's data will be in tomorrow's 12z model runs.

[clfenwi]

In addition to Gulfstream IV data, additional upper-air observations from a number of shore stations...

NOUS42 KWNO 221340
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1340Z MON AUG 22 2011

...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY FROM THE FOLLOWING STATIONS:
KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE, TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL,
JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY, CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY,
GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON, PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG,
STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.

[SouthDadeFish]

Seems like the 00Z model runs will be overflowing with data.

[Bocadude85]

18z TVCN looks a bit W.

yeah it is up to the northern bahamas. and a little to right near the NC coast.. typical of very sharp forecast turns. ever run it does not turn the sharpness increases till they have to shift again.. only time will tell

Where was the 12z TVCN? The 18z looks close to the NHC track the first 3 days...

[ObsessedMiami]

Seems like we are in DKS mode at this point ( Don't Know S----)!