ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

I thought he was a poker player?

[ozonepete]

If this is only the northwestern quadrant, I wonder what they'll find in the northeast. That's generally where the strongest winds are, right?

NW will be strongest since it is moving more west than north.

Shouldn't use NW or NE. It's the RIGHT FRONT quadrant along the direction of motion.

Which in this case is to the N and NW of the center so NW I guess was right . Just sayin...

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 4

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 23:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:25:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°41'N 68°39'W (19.6833N 68.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (187 km) to the NE (44°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,278m (4,193ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 88 nautical miles (101 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 240° at 56kts (From the WSW at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (171°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 310° to 130° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the south quadrant at 23:21:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the S (175°) from the flight level center

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 222332
XXAA 72238 99197 70686 04398 99982 27009 06510 00663 ///// /////
92528 23807 03013 85269 21822 06008 88999 77999
31313 09608 82325
61616 AF303 0709A IRENE OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1970N06865W 2326 MBL WND 05009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 04
510 981843 WL150 06008 083 REL 1971N06864W 232528 SPG 1970N06865W
232638 =
XXBB 72238 99197 70686 04398 00982 27009 11850 21822 22843 21018
21212 00982 06510 11962 06007 22938 03011 33911 04514 44899 02512
55892 04511 66883 04511 77875 03010 88866 05011 99858 04512 11843
09005
31313 09608 82325
61616 AF303 0709A IRENE OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1970N06865W 2326 MBL WND 05009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 04
510 981843 WL150 06008 083 REL 1971N06864W 232528 SPG 1970N06865W
232638 =
;

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde pressure: 982mb with 10 kt surface wind. Pressure likely 981mb.

It also strengthened without the eyewall closed, so watch out if it closes!

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 5

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 23:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 05

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 19.7N 68.6W
Location: 119 miles (192 km) to the NE (45°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
982mb (29.00 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F) 65° (from the ENE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb -163m (-535 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 528m (1,732 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F) 30° (from the NNE) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 1,269m (4,163 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 60° (from the ENE) 8 knots (9 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:25Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 19.7N 68.65W
Splash Time: 23:26Z

Release Location: 19.71N 68.64W View map)
Release Time: 23:25:28Z

Splash Location: 19.7N 68.65W (
Splash Time: 23:26:38Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 981mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
982mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F)
850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F)
843mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
982mb (Surface) 65° (from the ENE) 10 knots (12 mph)
962mb 60° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
938mb 30° (from the NNE) 11 knots (13 mph)
911mb 45° (from the NE) 14 knots (16 mph)
899mb 25° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph)
892mb 45° (from the NE) 11 knots (13 mph)
883mb 45° (from the NE) 11 knots (13 mph)
875mb 30° (from the NNE) 10 knots (12 mph)
866mb 50° (from the NE) 11 knots (13 mph)
858mb 45° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
843mb 90° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)


---



[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 222341
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 10 20110822
233100 1957N 06850W 8428 01422 //// +146 //// 051096 101 074 045 01
233130 1958N 06851W 8420 01437 //// +141 //// 057096 101 073 044 05
233200 1959N 06852W 8440 01433 //// +142 //// 053090 091 071 043 01
233230 2000N 06854W 8418 01463 //// +144 //// 054087 088 068 037 01
233300 2001N 06855W 8435 01461 //// +143 //// 051084 086 063 027 01
233330 2003N 06856W 8430 01472 //// +153 //// 051080 080 059 018 01
233400 2004N 06857W 8425 01484 //// +174 //// 053081 082 054 007 01
233430 2005N 06859W 8428 01483 //// +164 //// 055073 075 053 011 01
233500 2006N 06900W 8435 01481 //// +170 //// 055066 067 053 012 01
233530 2007N 06901W 8428 01496 //// +183 //// 053067 068 051 007 01
233600 2008N 06903W 8424 01499 //// +176 //// 055065 067 048 008 01
233630 2009N 06904W 8435 01492 //// +171 //// 060067 067 047 008 01
233700 2011N 06905W 8433 01496 //// +180 //// 060062 064 050 007 01
233730 2012N 06907W 8425 01506 //// +181 //// 062060 062 050 008 05
233800 2013N 06908W 8428 01507 //// +180 //// 064063 064 050 006 01
233830 2014N 06909W 8432 01506 //// +171 //// 066066 066 048 005 01
233900 2015N 06911W 8430 01507 //// +168 //// 067068 069 046 003 01
233930 2017N 06912W 8429 01512 //// +170 //// 068067 068 045 000 05
234000 2018N 06914W 8431 01513 //// +169 //// 069067 069 044 001 05
234030 2019N 06915W 8428 01519 //// +167 //// 071065 065 046 001 05

[CrazyC83]

So we wait - special advisory? update? just the normal intermediate? Given the large strengthening (wasn't forecast to be Cat 2 for 24 hours), a special is warranted IMO.

[ronjon]

From Denis Phillips facebook:

"Hey guys...new model data continues to come in. It's ALL to the East for now. I'm telling you, this track will shift even MORE East at 11 and I wouldn't be surprised if it only brushes the outer banks of NC. Still could be a big event for New England. "

Should I know who Denis Phillips is? If he's a Tampa met then, yeah, it's all to the east of Tampa.

Plus, sounds like an opinion mixed in.

That's really what bothers me...people say "models" and give their own personal opinion in the same breath and you have to know this stuff to untangle the two. No 18Z model I've seen shows Irene missing NC/SC/GA....

MW

MW, I'm from the Tampa Bay area and this guy has to be the worst on-air MET we have. He constantly offers his opinions about things on the skimpiest of data. He needs to look at 18z HWRF and swallow his tongue - it shifted about 120 miles west from its 12z run.

[Dave]

[ozonepete]

Wow, running into a lot of 80+ knot winds if those color coded barbs can be trusted.

[stormhunter7]

not bad on the VDM 982mb

[supercane]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 222348
TCUAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 222348
TCUAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Battlebrick]

special update from NHC: 100mph, 982 mb, CAT 2!

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, running into a lot of 80+ knot winds if those color coded barbs can be trusted.

Yeah, I don't think anyone can deny she's getting stronger as we speak. Glad we have recon in there for a couple hours now to show how fast she does or does not strengthen throughout the evening hours.

[boxwes]

TWC just reported 981mb and 100MPH

[Zampanò]

Wow, running into a lot of 80+ knot winds if those color coded barbs can be trusted.

The orange barbs actually indicate 60+ knot winds, but yes. There have been several >100 knot readings, in fact. (Flight level, of course)

[Fyzn94]

More details at :15 past the hour...

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 222351
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 11 20110822
234100 2020N 06916W 8428 01519 //// +171 //// 072064 066 046 000 05
234130 2022N 06918W 8432 01517 //// +169 //// 074064 065 /// /// 05
234200 2023N 06919W 8434 01519 //// +164 //// 074066 067 047 000 05
234230 2024N 06921W 8430 01525 //// +158 //// 071068 069 045 000 05
234300 2025N 06922W 8427 01527 //// +157 //// 070072 076 047 000 05
234330 2027N 06924W 8424 01532 //// +159 //// 073069 070 043 000 05
234400 2028N 06925W 8434 01527 //// +159 //// 071067 068 044 000 05
234430 2029N 06927W 8436 01527 //// +159 //// 069067 068 044 000 05
234500 2030N 06928W 8432 01530 //// +158 //// 070065 067 044 001 05
234530 2032N 06929W 8429 01532 //// +160 //// 070069 070 042 001 05
234600 2033N 06931W 8426 01539 //// +162 //// 069069 071 043 001 05
234630 2034N 06932W 8433 01535 //// +164 //// 065070 070 043 000 05
234700 2035N 06934W 8426 01542 //// +165 //// 067071 073 041 000 05
234730 2037N 06935W 8429 01541 //// +162 //// 070069 070 041 000 05
234800 2038N 06937W 8422 01549 //// +162 //// 072066 067 /// /// 05
234830 2039N 06938W 8426 01546 //// +169 //// 074063 064 /// /// 05
234900 2041N 06939W 8436 01536 //// +168 //// 077061 063 /// /// 05
234930 2042N 06941W 8433 01539 //// +173 //// 079060 060 /// /// 05
235000 2043N 06942W 8428 01547 //// +173 //// 080060 060 /// /// 05
235030 2044N 06944W 8427 01549 //// +172 //// 081060 061 /// /// 05
$$
;