ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Plane now flying at 700mb.

[ozonepete]

Eye should become visible within the next few hours if it keeps this intensity or (obviously) if it keeps intensifying.

[WxEnthus]

Wow, all of a sudden it got vwwerry quiet in here for having nearly 600+ people on board. Is everyone over at NHC clicking refresh like crazy??

[GreenWinds]

It did look like more than just a "jog" to the north.

I agree too.[/quote]

Well that would be good news for our friends in SE FL as any premature northerly movement would cause a shift eastward in the NHC track and future computer model guidance.

[ozonepete]

Plane now flying at 700mb.

they are going to sample some of the higher levels, right crazy?

[CrazyC83]

Plane now flying at 700mb.

they are going to sample some of the higher levels, right crazy?

Probably also for safety thinking if it is rapidly deepening they don't want to get caught off guard.

[Dave]

[WmE]

Reduction for 700mb is .9 right?

[ozonepete]

Notice also that the envelope is really enlarging, just like the models forecast. This is going to be a very big hurricane.

[CronkPSU]

still no special statement...yes i am impatient!

[CrazyC83]

Reduction for 700mb is .9 right?

That is correct.

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230029
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS
PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A
DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND
72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230025
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9
TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 230019
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0030 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 23/0030Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 23/0030Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[WmE]

Reduction for 700mb is .9 right?

That is correct.

Alright, thank you.

[CourierPR]

It did look like more than just a "jog" to the north.

I agree too.

Well that would be good news for our friends in SE FL as any premature northerly movement would cause a shift eastward in the NHC track and future computer model guidance.[/quote]

After looking at RAMSDIS satellite, that appears to me to be a wobble.

[CronkPSU]

810
WTNT24 KNHC 230019
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0030 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 23/0030Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 23/0030Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 55SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 230021
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 14 20110823
001100 2011N 07033W 6965 03167 //// +082 //// 027028 030 037 001 01
001130 2010N 07034W 6967 03165 //// +080 //// 023027 027 036 000 01
001200 2008N 07035W 6966 03168 //// +083 //// 029027 028 036 001 01
001230 2006N 07036W 6970 03164 //// +086 //// 030026 028 038 003 01
001300 2004N 07037W 6961 03175 //// +087 //// 031031 034 039 008 01
001330 2003N 07038W 6973 03158 //// +087 //// 023028 029 034 002 01
001400 2001N 07039W 6965 03167 //// +085 //// 025028 029 033 000 01
001430 1959N 07041W 6966 03169 //// +086 //// 020023 024 033 000 01
001500 1957N 07042W 6967 03165 //// +087 //// 018024 025 020 000 01
001530 1956N 07043W 6967 03165 //// +089 //// 018025 025 025 000 01
001600 1954N 07044W 6970 03163 //// +095 //// 018024 025 027 003 01
001630 1952N 07045W 6967 03166 //// +092 //// 022023 024 030 001 01
001700 1950N 07046W 6970 03154 //// +090 //// 021025 028 039 000 05
001730 1949N 07047W 6977 03155 //// +093 //// 020029 030 /// /// 05
001800 1947N 07046W 6962 02940 //// +082 //// 016027 030 /// /// 05
001830 1947N 07044W 6979 03086 //// +087 //// 013025 026 /// /// 05
001900 1947N 07042W 6963 03111 //// +090 //// 007019 021 /// /// 05
001930 1947N 07040W 6968 03135 //// +084 //// 014017 018 /// /// 05
002000 1947N 07038W 6980 03147 //// +085 //// 009018 019 036 000 05
002030 1947N 07036W 6967 03162 //// +085 //// 014019 019 030 000 01
$$

Headed out for mental health / vision preservation break. Someone please take over posting HDOBS.

[burasgal01]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 22/2350 UTC OR
ABOUT 175 NM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 115 NM E OF
PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT MAKING IRENE A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 67W-70W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 16N-23N
BETWEEN 62W-72W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...PORTIONS OF THE HAITI..N
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING TO OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.

[Tstormwatcher]

Watching TWC and the forecast intensity has just been increased by NHC to 125mph over the Bahamas with no change of track.

[CrazyC83]

Now forecasting a strong Cat 3, perhaps conservatively.

[AdamFirst]

There wont be a change in track, if any, until 11 PM.