ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

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[stormreader]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am surprised the NHC cone is that far west. I do think we will see it shift right over the next couple of advisories as the models seem to be shifting back right. Plus the quicker it organizes the more it will feel the weakness.

I still do not see this as a Florida storm yet. Still calling for it to pass far enough to the east and see it as more of an issue for the Bahamas.

I don't know Gator---I think the NHC initial track here is pretty close. And regardless of those most recent shifts east, lets wait a day or so to get a better handle on what is now Emily IMO. I still think the track will have to be nudged west a tad in the next day or so. I don't really read models too well though. Would like to see what the Euro says about the expanding ridge. Am I correct in seeing that it gives a good impetus to the ridge having it over or near S Fl many days from now?? Could be wrong though.

[gatorcane]

actually seems to me the ridging just build back in over the last 24 hours.. maybe that explains the rapid west motion all of a sudden.. maybe models are off on the initial strength of the ridging


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

According to the NHC the subtropical ridge north of it is weakening.

[jlauderdal]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Ummm not sure what I am seeing here but this says they canceled the g-IV flight?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.

the situation is so confusing they realize that not even the g4 can help, save the cash for down the road

[Aric Dunn]

actually seems to me the ridging just build back in over the last 24 hours.. maybe that explains the rapid west motion all of a sudden.. maybe models are off on the initial strength of the ridging


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[wxman57]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

That is incorrect. Warnings are now issued 36 hrs from impact, watches 48 hrs from impact.

[CronkPSU]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Ummm not sure what I am seeing here but this says they canceled the g-IV flight?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.

pffft....nothing to see here, no possible hurricane looking at US landfall...maybe that flight was on the deficit bill?

[Hylian Auree]

wxman57, what's your take on its track during the next 24 hours?

[Aric Dunn]

actually seems to me the ridging just build back in over the last 24 hours.. maybe that explains the rapid west motion all of a sudden.. maybe models are off on the initial strength of the ridging


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

According to the NHC the subtropical ridge north of it is weakening.

they said the models say its going to weaken...

[knotimpaired]

Purchased 3 more cases of water today and am about to take the laundry out of the machines downstairs. Just making sure all is prepped in the event of any extended periods with no electricity.
I learned that lesson years ago in NC when Fran left me with no electricity or water (electric pump) for 28 days!
Plus, as soon as this area gets into a cone, the stores go nutso crazy!
plus, Winn Dixie has cases of water 3 for $10 right now too in FL as a coincidence.

This is probably off topic but you should consider hard wiring your house. No extension cords but if you get a gen at 5500 it will hold the load of everything. Minus a elec dryer. But we have every thing we had in the states and a 5500 watt Gen takes care of it.

I suggest having at least 25 gals of fuel as backup.

[gatorcane]

actually seems to me the ridging just build back in over the last 24 hours.. maybe that explains the rapid west motion all of a sudden.. maybe models are off on the initial strength of the ridging


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

According to the NHC the subtropical ridge north of it is weakening.

they said the models say its going to weaken...

That is not how I read it. Check out the beginning of the second paragraph of the discussion

[shaggy]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Ummm not sure what I am seeing here but this says they canceled the g-IV flight?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.

pffft....nothing to see here, no possible hurricane looking at US landfall...maybe that flight was on the deficit bill?

Dunno but I bet they are kicking themselves for doing that now. That would have been the data used for the 12z run tomorrow I presume?

[Gustywind]

[Rgv20]

Looking at the current steering layer and the usually happy ridging UKMET I think Emily should continue due west at least until 67-66 west.

[Aric Dunn]

According to the NHC the subtropical ridge north of it is weakening.

they said the models say its going to weaken...

That is not how I read it. Check out the beginning of the second paragraph of the discussion

well its says both... can be for sure but it read to me that they are going off the models saying its weakening.. ?? everything im looking at from past to present says its not.... ??? it however might start too ... but how far south of the track will she go before that happens .??

[boca]

I clipped what you two were discussing out of the discussion.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS

[Aric Dunn]

I clipped what you two were discussing out of the discussion.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS

Thank you..

[knotimpaired]

We have a elongated band that looks as if it is coming our way.

Can anyone confirm this?

[boca]

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS

Out of the discussion.

[gatorcane]

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS

Out of the discussion.

Check out the sentence before in the disco though not in the snippet above. That confirms it is weakening right now.