ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[StarmanHDB]

Beautiful storm:

its even starting to get the fist look now

Looks like a seahorse in the middle!

I'm not sure about a seahorse, but I see either Jesus or John Lennon in the middle!

Seriously, the "fist of doom" is definitely there and it won't be long until Irene opens her eye on the world.

[MGC]

SST are running near 30C in the Bahamas....yikes! Once Irene clears Hispaniola watch out! With warm SST and little shear, Irene should be in near ideal conditions to intensify the next couple of days.....MGC

[Robjohn53]

How can you brush off s.fla when the thing is still heading straight at it and nobody can state why its going to turn they just say it will. give me some solid data and reasoning as to why this storm is going to change direction. All I have heard is maybe this trough or maybe that trough possibly a weakness in the ridge. If it slows down it could go more west well now it slowed down and its going to still stay on forecast track????

Anyone have a clue?? Or just a bunch of guesses?

I can only Imagine what the pro's have to say. They can answer this better but i think they are really busy at the time watching this whole thing. I'm sure at some point they will let us know more when they are sure. it's confusing but they will add there info
when they are more sure.

[Tampa_God]

Latest microwave much improved:
http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/295/ ... 1h1deg.jpg

Still kind of close to Hispaniola, any chance this will limit or weaken Irene a little?

Has it weakened her yet? She's been close most all day and instead she is now gaining strength. She should be pulling away over the next 12 hours or so. I would say if it hasn't weakened or kept her in check yet it's prob. not going to.

True. If she continues her direction, I guess she'll be off the coast the same distance as she has been the whole day. A wobble to the west a little could put her closer to the tip of DM though, although I doubt we'll see that happening.

[CronkPSU]

disclaimer: Like Jon Snow, I know nothing except what the NHC, the experts tell me


i would think florida gets trop storm warnings at 11 and based on all the models shifting left, a very small move left on the track but they will throw a big disclaimer in about the G-IV data and the 0z models and 5AM is where we see the major shift if they do trend west again

[TheDreamTraveler]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

Yeah, because the storm is going to track up that way.

you can't say that with such certainty at least without adding the requisite storm2k disclaimer!

Oh, silly me I guess I was just too assuming since all of the computer models send it that way. But yeah, I should have really stated that it's the model guidance showing it going there.

[maxintensity]

HDOB set 18 to set 19 shows the start of a double wind maximum, though its not as pronounced as it will be. Eyewall replacement cycles are notorious for weakening hurricanes. I think Rita went through one for several days and just had another one last night. I've said all along the dreaded eyewall replacement cycle has a huge chance of keeping this one in check throughout the entirety of its life. Those who think they are only seen in major hurricanes and not in cat 2's think again. A few years ago a cat 1 underwent one, though I forget which one it was. It was one nearing landfall though.

000
URNT15 KNHC 230101
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 18 20110823
005100 1953N 06845W 6968 03002 //// +132 //// 153045 048 059 000 05
005130 1954N 06843W 6965 03023 //// +125 //// 149050 050 067 001 05
005200 1956N 06842W 6966 03029 //// +113 //// 149054 057 066 001 01
005230 1957N 06840W 6971 03032 //// +111 //// 151059 062 061 001 01
005300 1958N 06839W 6960 03057 //// +092 //// 156072 075 061 000 01
005330 2000N 06838W 6967 03061 //// +074 //// 152075 077 061 003 01
005400 2001N 06836W 6972 03066 //// +084 //// 152072 073 059 005 01
005430 2002N 06835W 6962 03089 //// +094 //// 150070 072 055 003 01
005500 2004N 06834W 6967 03090 //// +090 //// 147068 069 056 002 01
005530 2005N 06832W 6970 03094 //// +092 //// 146064 066 053 006 01
005600 2006N 06831W 6965 03107 //// +094 //// 143063 064 052 002 01
005630 2008N 06830W 6966 03111 //// +092 //// 144063 064 051 001 01
005700 2009N 06828W 6967 03109 //// +089 //// 146060 062 050 002 01
005730 2010N 06827W 6967 03117 //// +092 //// 146057 058 049 002 01
005800 2011N 06825W 6967 03122 //// +092 //// 144054 055 050 003 01
005830 2013N 06824W 6966 03122 //// +092 //// 144053 053 049 006 01
005900 2014N 06823W 6966 03125 //// +075 //// 144056 059 054 015 01
005930 2015N 06821W 6967 03126 //// +075 //// 138056 061 056 017 01
010000 2017N 06820W 6969 03122 //// +071 //// 137059 064 052 030 01
010030 2018N 06819W 6967 03126 //// +074 //// 135060 063 059 024 01
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 230111
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 19 20110823
010100 2019N 06818W 6972 03114 //// +075 //// 135059 062 061 024 01
010130 2020N 06816W 6970 03125 //// +070 //// 132062 065 055 027 01
010200 2022N 06815W 6954 03139 //// +067 //// 128063 064 054 021 01
010230 2023N 06814W 6971 03129 //// +080 //// 129059 061 053 012 01
010300 2024N 06812W 6966 03132 //// +071 //// 128062 063 052 012 01
010330 2025N 06811W 6966 03134 //// +069 //// 131064 065 049 012 01
010400 2026N 06810W 6966 03135 //// +071 //// 129064 065 051 011 01
010430 2027N 06809W 6967 03136 //// +074 //// 124062 064 052 011 01
010500 2029N 06808W 6970 03130 //// +065 //// 125062 064 050 011 01
010530 2030N 06806W 6966 03137 //// +069 //// 122065 066 051 012 01
010600 2031N 06805W 6967 03140 //// +071 //// 121068 070 049 009 01
010630 2032N 06804W 6970 03132 //// +064 //// 122067 069 049 008 01
010700 2033N 06803W 6964 03147 //// +069 //// 120065 066 051 005 01
010730 2034N 06802W 6967 03145 //// +078 //// 121065 066 050 005 01
010800 2035N 06801W 6970 03145 //// +078 //// 121064 064 049 004 01
010830 2036N 06759W 6967 03152 //// +076 //// 121064 065 049 003 01
010900 2038N 06758W 6968 03153 //// +075 //// 122064 065 049 004 01
010930 2039N 06757W 6966 03151 //// +079 //// 122062 063 047 003 01
011000 2040N 06756W 6969 03150 //// +084 //// 120060 061 047 002 01
011030 2041N 06755W 6969 03156 //// +085 //// 122058 058 048 004 01

[tgenius]

disclaimer: Like Jon Snow, I know nothing except what the NHC, the experts tell me


i would think florida gets trop storm warnings at 11 and based on all the models shifting left, a very small move left on the track but they will throw a big disclaimer in about the G-IV data and the 0z models and 5AM is where we see the major shift if they do trend west again

Tropical Storm Watches perhaps, doubtful on warnings at least this early... if at all.

The models are trending west again? I thought it was all east still.

[Stephanie]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

Yeah, because the storm is going to track up that way.

Is the NHC certain of this?

The only time they will be 100% certain is when it happens. The models are forecasts based on the information at the time. A lot can change between now and then.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230131
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 21 20110823
012100 2107N 06728W 6973 03175 //// +063 //// 136055 058 036 006 05
012130 2108N 06727W 6953 03203 //// +064 //// 136053 054 /// /// 05
012200 2110N 06729W 6971 03178 //// +066 //// 127051 053 /// /// 05
012230 2109N 06731W 6973 03171 //// +064 //// 118048 049 038 008 05
012300 2109N 06734W 6957 03188 //// +070 //// 114049 049 037 007 01
012330 2109N 06736W 6964 03183 //// +068 //// 124051 053 038 008 01
012400 2109N 06738W 6967 03179 //// +066 //// 121052 053 036 006 01
012430 2109N 06741W 6965 03177 //// +071 //// 125055 058 035 008 01
012500 2109N 06743W 6968 03177 //// +075 //// 128055 057 036 004 01
012530 2110N 06745W 6970 03171 //// +076 //// 130053 055 037 003 01
012600 2110N 06747W 6966 03176 //// +076 //// 128053 054 037 005 01
012630 2110N 06750W 6967 03175 //// +076 //// 123053 054 039 004 01
012700 2110N 06752W 6965 03178 //// +076 //// 118055 056 038 006 01
012730 2110N 06754W 6967 03177 //// +077 //// 120056 057 039 005 01
012800 2110N 06757W 6967 03173 //// +080 //// 121056 057 040 005 01
012830 2110N 06759W 6969 03172 //// +080 //// 121056 057 040 005 01
012900 2110N 06801W 6967 03172 //// +080 //// 119056 056 041 004 01
012930 2110N 06804W 6967 03171 //// +081 //// 118053 055 041 003 01
013000 2111N 06806W 6966 03174 //// +080 //// 115051 051 040 003 01
013030 2111N 06808W 6967 03174 //// +080 //// 113052 052 040 001 01
$$
;

[jlauderdal]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

focus your attention on something other than weather channel, there is plenty here to keep you better informed

[jlauderdal]

Latest microwave much improved:

Still kind of close to Hispaniola, any chance this will limit or weaken Irene a little?

all it has done so far has intensified and its moving away from that land mass...a major hurricane is in the cards sooner rather later

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis, welcome back!
Also, did you get lots of heavy rain there? Saw lots of dark reds on the Satellite over your island for many hours!

The tail of Irene is still with us,but so far between 8-11 inches have fallen.

[guyclaude08]

you guys what should i expect tonight or tomorrow i'm in Santiago DR this place is the North central Region ?? please someone tell me something.....it was raining all day now it has stopped but since it's strenghtening and it's a category 2 what then for Santiago...

[stormreader]

Looking quite a bit stronger in just last couple of frames.

[eastcoastFL]

The weather channel also just stated that if IRENE doesn't weaken before it gets to the bahamas that due to her size it could still be a significant situation for all of florida but more so the east coast.

Is she really that big? She doesn't look that big to me but I do remember that when frances was over the central bahamas before it reached us, there were some nasty feeder bands and squall lines coming through.

[psyclone]

Watching the Weather Channel. It seems that they are brushing off South Florida (miami/keys). There talking New York City for God's sakes!!!!

focus your attention on something other than weather channel, there is plenty here to keep you better informed

twc with cantore and norcross has been really good tonight.

[stormreader]

Eye should be popping at any time now.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Look how she's expanding...wow!