ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

Looking at the MIMIC-TPW loop, it appears the best circulation is now well west of Jamaica.

[ronjon]

This thing is quite impressive for a June system. Very large gyre now encompassing the western caribbean. A monsoon trough in early-June? Hope this doesn't portend the rest of the season.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb-s.html

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060600, , BEST, 0, 169N, 801W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[MGC]

If the MCL could work it way down to the surface 94L would have a much greater chance of becoming a TC....the current surface circulation has little chance IMO......MGC

[ROCK]

18z GFS did nothing with this....wait on the 0z I guess....

[gatorcane]

Convection near the MLC seems to be on the decrease. New convection is blowing up west of Jamaica though.

[SFLcane]

The strong mid/upper level circ is displaced at least 100 nmi east of the LLCC. That is severe decoupling. Perhaps the M/U circ can bore down to the surface, but it isn't likely. My thinking is the 400 mb flow (still nwly at 12Z at Cayman) to turn easterly for about 12 hr or so on Monday afternoon and evening, which would allow for the two circs to become aligned before the mid to upper flow turns back swly north of 20N and  shears the system apart with the remnant LLCC moving nnwd just west of FL...which will FINALLY kick in the rainy season.

[Florida1118]

Convection had really decreased, but to be expected during DMIN. Overall orgainization IMO has increased, and might become a TD tomorrow. We'll have to see what DMAX does for 94L...if it fails again tomorrow IMO it wont make it. But, the tropics are always suprising.

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[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis shows the low stationary.



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[srainhoutx]

Pressures have been slowly falling at buoy 42057, not too terribly far from the surface low. We'll see what tomorrow brings. That said, the development to the W and a nice outflow signature is encouraging in regards to any future development. These monsoonal trough/gyre situations always take a bit of time, IMO.

[Sanibel]

If it's developing it should go from the present d-min to another burst like it did yesterday.

[Rgv20]

Taking a look at the 12z Euro shear map for the weekend it looks like the central and eastern gulf is not the most favorable environment for a strengthening tropical system and that is good news. Looks like Florida will get some beneficial rains.

[wxman57]

Just took a look at sfc obs in the region. Winds are down and pressures are slightly up around the disturbance. Convection/convergence remain quite weak. Threat to Gulf may be increasing, though. But if the threat is mostly rain, then that won't be bad.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection starting to flare up near the MLC south of Jamaica. Seems like daily cycle with this thing...

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html


there is your refire as if it was listening to you guys......very close to the center with some cold tops....

[ROCK]

0z GFS coming out 30hrs....broad low and another one to the east....whats with the GFS sheesh....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[Florida1118]

94's a fighter...A stubborn annoying fighter.

[SouthDadeFish]

In my opinion, which is not an official forecast, I feel there is a possibility that we will see a center reformation tonight, as it seemed the LLC was weakening before we lost visible images. The MLC was quite vigorous and the fact that we are seeing a refiring of convection in the same spot is more evidence of this.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042l.gif

well it initialized right but doesnt have a firm grasp IMO....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_000l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

Center remains very broad: