ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

What is going on between Barbados and St.Lucia? Almost looks like some turning in the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

That is incorrect. Warnings are now issued 36 hrs from impact, watches 48 hrs from impact.

Yeah, I know haha. I saw that its been changed this year, and admitted defeat. Either way though, its still nearly 48 hours from possible landfall, which is why the watch is more appropriate than a warning.

[cycloneye]

We have a elongated band that looks as if it is coming our way.

Can anyone confirm this?

PR radar shows that band approaching Vieques.

[Aric Dunn]

00z NAm has a little more ridging north of Emily at initialization. Being that the NAM is pretty decent with synoptics should give us a clue what to expect with the other models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

[Aric Dunn]

and in 12 hours has slight stronger ridging ...

[PTrackerLA]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

[cheezyWXguy]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

Actually it may need to be nudged west due to the initial motion, at least in the near term.

[gatorcane]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

I agree only the CMC and UKMET are into Florida. I am not counting the NOGAPS.

The other reliable models are converging over the Bahamas. A right shift should be coming.

Those BAMs are really recurving it now. Though not really counting those.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

While I think they will adjust their cone, I don't expect any radical changes. A nudge here, a nudge there. After two days of trending west, one run back east isn't enough to make huge changes. If the trend continues east, then more significant changes can be made, but don't expect them to radically change their cone yet.

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

I agree only the CMC and UKMET are into Florida. I am not counting the NOGAPS.

The other reliable models are converging over the Bahamas. A right shift should be coming.

What remains to be seen though is if the Bahamas models are flip-flopping from their previous runs or if it is the start of a trend.

[Blown Away]

Wow, that 5 day point nails Hobe Sound, it's usually a good place to be 5 days out because you know it will change. Not many storms that hit Hispaniola as a TS or weaker come out and develope into a hurricane before hitting Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS

Out of the discussion.

Check out the sentence before in the disco though not in the snippet above. That confirms it is weakening right now.

well we will never know exactly what they meant.. if the models say its going to weaken or it is weakening.. still seems like they saw the models weakening it and said its weakening... oh none the less.... its still the big question how much ridging holds and how far west before it turns..

[Aric Dunn]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

Actually it may need to be nudged west due to the initial motion, at least in the near term.

yeah they will have no choice but to adjust it west in the short term too account for the west motion / wsw.... I actually think they will leave it alone till 5am so that the data can be ingested into the models for 00z. they are not going to go off 18z data .. before emily was well emily..

[knotimpaired]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

[Evil Jeremy]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

We've been discussing it the entire time...

[Aric Dunn]

well again its the NAM and the ridging is stronger this run.. pushing emily wsw through 24 hours..

wonder how it plays out... the current ridging appears stronger than the models initialized it at the 18z...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

Not at all. Why would you think that?

[LaBreeze]

...and the flip-flopping begins

[Ivanhater]

00Z NAM looks really far south..remember Ivan and others...kept on going west against the models and the models had to play catch up almost the entire time....I know we all try to nail these systems down as soon as we can, but this is certainly not clear cut as most logical people will tell you.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM pushes it WSW through 36 hours out of the current cone...

[HurricaneBelle]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

Refresh. F5 isn't just a code for an extreme tornado.