ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re:

#3801 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:15 pm

lonelymike wrote:HRWF??? U guys really don't take this model seriously :roll:


Mike I wouldnt really say its any particular model that is being taken seriously... it's the trending that people are commenting on.. GFS slightly West, HRWF now West of its previous runs.. As more models start to run it will give a better overall picture
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3802 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:16 pm

WPB might be in the western eyewall on that run!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3803 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:17 pm

I don't know about all of you but I'm having Frances flashbacks right now. Original Frances track was supposed to go further North but after the additional dropsonde data was put into the models it was discovered that the ridge was stronger than originally progged. Are we looking at the same result here??? Only time will tell...

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
pricetag56
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:18 pm

Re:

#3804 Postby pricetag56 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:17 pm

chris_fit wrote:84 hrs.....

Too close for comfort!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

yea dam!!!! thats pushin cat 5 isn't it is this with the new data in from gulf stream
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3805 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:17 pm

90 hrs....

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3806 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:18 pm

ronjon wrote:WPB might be in the western eyewall on that run!


I wouldn't say that.. might get hurricane force winds on the coast though
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#3807 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:18 pm

To me, its important for me to see that west shift with only a 1/3 of the drops in....We shall see on the 00z run....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wzrgirl1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1325
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 6:44 am
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida

Re: Re:

#3808 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:18 pm

pricetag56 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:84 hrs.....

Too close for comfort!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

yea dam!!!! thats pushin cat 5 isn't it is this with the new data in from gulf stream


I can't take anymore. Going to take a break from this for awhile.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3809 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:19 pm

96 hrs....
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



Here is the previous 12z run....you can really see the shift
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3810 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:19 pm

916mb? Yikes that is near or at Category 5 intensity! It can't get too much farther north at that intensity!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3811 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:20 pm

Seems that the 18z NAM, GFS, and HWRF are all showing stronger ridging in the near term, say out the next 60 hrs.
0 likes   
Top
HugoCameandLeft
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:42 am
Location: Charleston, SC

Re: Re:

#3812 Postby HugoCameandLeft » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:20 pm

pricetag56 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:84 hrs.....

Too close for comfort!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

yea dam!!!! thats pushin cat 5 isn't it is this with the new data in from gulf stream


Someone pointed this out last night, but I believe those pressure readings are not surface pressure, but rather at 850mb?
0 likes   
Top
alch97
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3813 Postby alch97 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:21 pm

I'm a bit confused. So now some of the models are bringing it back west? Will this be taken seriously @11?
0 likes   
I KNOW NOTHING.
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3814 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:22 pm

102hrs...
Eye wall almost touching the Cape....
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#3815 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:22 pm

chris_fit wrote:102hrs...
Eye wall almost touching the Cape....
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Intensity there would likely be about 130-140 kt.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Kory
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 200
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:32 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

#3816 Postby Kory » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:22 pm

The 18z GFS shifted very slightly to the west. It is very negligible. Intensity forecasts are worthless by the models so only look at the synoptic set up. Still thinking NC/SC. They already shifted the track even more east.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#3817 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:23 pm

Keep in mind these runs only have 1/3 of the dropsondes... could go even further west
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3818 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:23 pm

alch97 wrote:I'm a bit confused. So now some of the models are bringing it back west? Will this be taken seriously @11?


I think it will be taken seriously because of the new data from the GIV flight that gathered info. Apparently only about 1/3 of the data was incorporated though. The models that are run later tonight will have 100% included if I read that right earlier in the thread.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3819 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:24 pm

alch97 wrote:I'm a bit confused. So now some of the models are bringing it back west? Will this be taken seriously @11?


Maybe we'll see at 00z. These runs at 18z all had some recent upper air data in them which suggest there may be somewhat stronger w atlantic ridging than previous runs - jury still out on that though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3820 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:24 pm

108hrs

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests