ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

whoa...cat four over the bahamas now...wonder why they have it go back down to cat 3 so quickly over those still super hot waters next to florida

Eyewall replacement cycles and lower depth of the warm waters once north of about 30N.

[CronkPSU]

looks like it will hit sooner as well, right?

[supercane]

Latest advisory out, see advisory thread for details, no changes in watches/warnings:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 69.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[Fyzn94]

Look at THIS...

[CronkPSU]

980 mb...what was it at 5?

[lebron23]

NHC gives it a 28 percent to dissipate in the 120th hour..hmm

[ozonepete]

Looks like the eye will be visible soon on IR.

[jpigott]

Cat 4 pretty close to West End, Bahamas, about 50-60 miles off to my east . . . that's a little too close for comfort

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230301
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 30 20110823
025100 1920N 06842W 6967 03132 //// +099 //// 216040 040 036 005 01
025130 1919N 06841W 6967 03133 //// +100 //// 214039 039 035 006 01
025200 1918N 06840W 6966 03134 //// +100 //// 214039 040 035 006 01
025230 1916N 06838W 6967 03136 //// +101 //// 214035 036 034 004 01
025300 1915N 06837W 6967 03138 //// +104 //// 219034 034 032 003 01
025330 1914N 06836W 6970 03135 //// +105 //// 216034 034 030 000 01
025400 1913N 06834W 6968 03141 //// +107 //// 211035 036 029 000 01
025430 1912N 06833W 6967 03141 //// +107 //// 207038 039 028 000 01
025500 1911N 06832W 6966 03148 //// +106 //// 209037 038 029 000 01
025530 1909N 06831W 6965 03146 //// +100 //// 210040 041 029 000 01
025600 1908N 06829W 6967 03148 //// +097 //// 209041 042 029 000 01
025630 1907N 06828W 6969 03145 //// +098 //// 206040 041 028 000 01
025700 1906N 06827W 6967 03146 //// +095 //// 208040 040 029 000 01
025730 1905N 06825W 6965 03152 //// +097 //// 208041 041 030 000 01
025800 1904N 06824W 6967 03148 //// +095 //// 209039 040 032 001 05
025830 1902N 06823W 6967 03152 //// +096 //// 212037 037 035 000 01
025900 1901N 06822W 6964 03158 //// +094 //// 214037 039 034 005 01
025930 1900N 06821W 6967 03152 //// +092 //// 218037 042 033 006 01
030000 1858N 06820W 6963 03154 //// +084 //// 215032 036 031 007 01
030030 1857N 06819W 6973 03147 //// +081 //// 202038 039 031 006 01
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

from the discussion...


Of note...synoptic surveillance flights from the NOAA G-IV and an
Air Force Reserve c-130 aircraft provided numerous dropsondes for
assimilation into the 0000 UTC model cycle. This should improve
the analysis of the environment around and upstream of Irene.

[ObsessedMiami]

[*]

Cat 4 pretty close to West End, Bahamas, about 50-60 miles off to my east . . . that's a little too close for comfort

yes.... Way too close. Wait til the SFL tv audience gets a load of that!

[HURAKAN]

[JPmia]

Max Mayfield (WPLG -10) just said Tropical Storm watches could be up for Southeast FL some time tomorrow.

[tgenius]

I go to sleep relaxed a bit for SFL, though when I wake up at 6am.. I'm just hoping all the GIV data allows for a more precise path so those in the path of Irene will be able to evac and prepare as needed.

[lebron23]

Shouldnt hurricane watches go up tomorrow if a cat 4 is only 50-60 miles off the coast?...

[Blown Away]

from the discussion...


Of note...synoptic surveillance flights from the NOAA G-IV and an
Air Force Reserve c-130 aircraft provided numerous dropsondes for
assimilation into the 0000 UTC model cycle. This should improve
the analysis of the environment around and upstream of Irene.

So the 00z Bams and TVCN had dropsound data and still kept Irene E of SFL, feeling better about SFL, concerned for Bahamas. Yikes!

[mf_dolphin]

from the discussion...


Of note...synoptic surveillance flights from the NOAA G-IV and an
Air Force Reserve c-130 aircraft provided numerous dropsondes for
assimilation into the 0000 UTC model cycle. This should improve
the analysis of the environment around and upstream of Irene.

Almost seems like they punted on the track pending the 00z models. I guess I can't blame them considering not that much has changed either. The 5AM could be real interesting....

[CrazyC83]

Max Mayfield (WPLG -10) just said Tropical Storm watches could be up for Southeast FL some time tomorrow.

With it only 60 miles away, I'd be putting up Hurricane Watches tomorrow for the east coast and Tropical Storm Watches for the west coast later. Way too close for comfort.

[Blown Away]

Shouldnt hurricane watches go up tomorrow if a cat 4 is only 50-60 miles off the coast?...

Closest point to SFL will be near WPB and the center about 120 miles offshore, not 50-60.

[CronkPSU]

alright, time to take about an hour break and then wait for the 0z models to start rolling in, guess i'll stay up until the euro rolls out around 2ish, we should all know a lot more in about 3 hours