ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[Blown Away]

alright, time to take about an hour break and then wait for the 0z models to start rolling in, guess i'll stay up until the euro rolls out around 2ish, we should all know a lot more in about 3 hours

Yep, me too!! This will tell the story IMO.

[TheBurn]

Trough and 'Wall' of Dry Air ahead of Irene

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230311
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 31 20110823
030100 1856N 06818W 6974 03141 //// +085 //// 201038 038 031 002 01
030130 1854N 06817W 6967 03151 //// +089 //// 205039 040 032 001 01
030200 1853N 06816W 6966 03154 //// +089 //// 210039 040 034 003 01
030230 1852N 06814W 6967 03155 //// +086 //// 212039 040 036 002 01
030300 1851N 06813W 6966 03153 //// +086 //// 211040 040 036 002 05
030330 1850N 06812W 6965 03156 //// +090 //// 210041 042 036 002 01
030400 1849N 06810W 6970 03152 //// +087 //// 209042 043 035 003 01
030430 1848N 06808W 6967 03156 //// +084 //// 207044 044 035 003 01
030500 1848N 06807W 6967 03158 //// +082 //// 204044 046 035 003 01
030530 1847N 06805W 6967 03156 //// +081 //// 205045 046 035 004 01
030600 1846N 06804W 6966 03165 //// +081 //// 207043 043 036 002 01
030630 1844N 06803W 6966 03164 //// +086 //// 207043 043 034 003 01
030700 1843N 06801W 6968 03164 //// +087 //// 207043 043 031 002 01
030730 1842N 06800W 6967 03162 //// +086 //// 207042 042 030 002 01
030800 1841N 06759W 6967 03166 //// +085 //// 209041 041 030 002 01
030830 1840N 06758W 6967 03171 //// +089 //// 210040 041 028 004 05
030900 1840N 06756W 6965 03173 //// +092 //// 209042 042 /// /// 05
030930 1841N 06755W 6969 03171 //// +089 //// 203036 038 /// /// 05
031000 1843N 06756W 6970 03161 //// +086 //// 198035 036 030 004 05
031030 1845N 06756W 6967 03167 //// +079 //// 195037 038 032 005 01
$$
;

[jpigott]

Shouldnt hurricane watches go up tomorrow if a cat 4 is only 50-60 miles off the coast?...

Closest point to SFL will be near WPB and the center about 120 miles offshore, not 50-60.

I live a couple blocks from the intracostal here in North Palm. My father-in-law, brother-in-law and myself run over to West End from Jupiter Inlet a few times each summer to fish and dive the bank. It's 55 miles from Jupiter Inlet to West End. The NHC's 11pm track takes it just to the east of West End. I know we are splitting hairs here - but it's certainly not 120 miles from Jupiter Inlet to the NHC's closest point of approach.

edit - looking again at the track, it is a little further east of West End than I thought - still though, looks more like 80-90 miles from Jupiter Inlet

[Evil Jeremy]

I thought that the 00z BAMS were based off of 18z data, despite their numbering. Either way, they are still bogus.

[HURAKAN]

[GTStorm]

nothing in the 11p discussion leads me to believe that a significant shift in the track prediction is about to occur.

hope the folks in Bahamas are safe and prepared, prayers on the way!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

impressive in this microwave image

[UpTheCreek]

I'm about 70 miles NNE of NHC's "current" projected landfall and pray that it gets shifted a good bit east so I'll be on the "good" side, but we'll be prepared if we get nailed. Also worried about everyone from FL on up too, but I can't shake the big worry I have for those poor blokes in the Bahamas. If it whirls up to a cat 4, they are going to get creamed, especially if it's still moving at a leisurely 11 or 12 mph.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230321
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 32 20110823
031100 1847N 06756W 6967 03165 //// +082 //// 197040 040 033 003 01
031130 1849N 06757W 6967 03167 //// +088 //// 200041 041 034 003 01
031200 1851N 06757W 6960 03170 //// +086 //// 195040 042 036 009 01
031230 1854N 06757W 6969 03158 //// +089 //// 196043 044 038 005 01
031300 1856N 06757W 6967 03163 //// +086 //// 196041 044 039 005 01
031330 1858N 06757W 6967 03162 //// +083 //// 199039 040 040 005 01
031400 1900N 06757W 6965 03162 //// +076 //// 196039 040 041 007 01
031430 1902N 06757W 6967 03158 //// +091 //// 194038 039 038 006 01
031500 1904N 06758W 6967 03159 //// +091 //// 192037 038 037 001 01
031530 1906N 06758W 6966 03159 //// +088 //// 188038 039 035 001 01
031600 1908N 06758W 6967 03155 //// +088 //// 187039 039 033 000 01
031630 1910N 06758W 6966 03158 //// +085 //// 185040 041 033 000 01
031700 1913N 06758W 6968 03158 //// +085 //// 186041 041 035 002 01
031730 1915N 06758W 6967 03155 //// +086 //// 187040 041 038 004 01
031800 1917N 06758W 6973 03149 //// +075 //// 182036 037 043 012 01
031830 1919N 06759W 6948 03173 //// +074 //// 181046 049 043 015 01
031900 1921N 06759W 6971 03143 //// +068 //// 181046 048 044 017 01
031930 1923N 06759W 6969 03151 //// +070 //// 170039 043 047 018 01
032000 1925N 06759W 6967 03154 //// +076 //// 161032 036 045 015 01
032030 1927N 06759W 6968 03151 //// +079 //// 163029 030 047 016 01
$$
;

[crimi481]

Looks like the first trough being out done (like...rock cuts paper)
-at least looks that way on this Sat loop.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[ozonepete]

Trough and 'Wall' of Dry Air ahead of Irene

There is NO significant dry air ahead of it. That satellite image doesn't show mid-level dry air. Higher level dry air has no impact on hurricanes.

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC gives it a 28 percent to dissipate in the 120th hour..hmm

They got another woman on their mind

[RL3AO]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0315Z TUE AUG 23 2011

THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. RAWINSONDE COVERAGE FOR
MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WAS EXCELLENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND
INCLUDED 36 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

[pricetag56]

Katrina was also a hurricane that didn't show any eye even when it was over 100mph...

thats why i believe that once the eye does form it will make a run at cat 5 possibly

[ConvergenceZone]

They talked about the strength of Irene on the Weather tonight and I agree with them. I think we'll have around a high cat 1 or cat 2 upon landfall. As they were saying on TV, it gets very difficult to getting stronger than a Cat2 the higher up the coast the landfall occurs.(unless conditions are completely ideal)..Something to do with the water they said as well... If this was going to Florida, it would have a shot at a Cat 5.....

[Blown Away]

Shouldnt hurricane watches go up tomorrow if a cat 4 is only 50-60 miles off the coast?...

Closest point to SFL will be near WPB and the center about 120 miles offshore, not 50-60.

I live a couple blocks from the intracostal here in North Palm. My father-in-law, brother-in-law and myself run over to West End from Jupiter Inlet a few times each summer to fish and dive the bank. It's 55 miles from Jupiter Inlet to West End. The NHC's 11pm track takes it just to the east of West End. I know we are splitting hairs here - but it's certainly not 120 miles from Jupiter Inlet to the NHC's closest point of approach.

edit - looking again at the track, it is a little further east of West End than I thought - still though, looks more like 80-90 miles from Jupiter Inlet

@70 miles from WPB to Freeport, then maybe another 30 to the NHC track. So maybe 100, not 120.

Either way it's scary to think a life changing event, like a Cat 4, is projected to be only 100 miles away! As much as I like storms, I know a system like that will ruin lives if it hits Hobe Sound!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Women women women... they give you just that.... headaches hehe

[fci]

Shouldnt hurricane watches go up tomorrow if a cat 4 is only 50-60 miles off the coast?...

Closest point to SFL will be near WPB and the center about 120 miles offshore, not 50-60.

I live a couple blocks from the intracostal here in North Palm. My father-in-law, brother-in-law and myself run over to West End from Jupiter Inlet a few times each summer to fish and dive the bank. It's 55 miles from Jupiter Inlet to West End. The NHC's 11pm track takes it just to the east of West End. I know we are splitting hairs here - but it's certainly not 120 miles from Jupiter Inlet to the NHC's closest point of approach.

edit - looking again at the track, it is a little further east of West End than I thought - still though, looks more like 80-90 miles from Jupiter Inlet

According to How Close Can It Get from Storm Caribe, the closest Irene comes to Jupiter Inlet on the forecasted track is 116.1 miles!!!

That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.