25/1432 UTC 17.4S 121.3E T2.0/2.0 10S -- Southeast Indian
30 knots
SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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WTXS33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.2S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.1S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.4S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.9S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF BROOME. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 30 KTS/996 MB JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM BROOME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE AND TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED WEST-EAST ALONG 23S LATITUDE. TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR, WHICH UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE RIDGE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241221Z
JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241230) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN
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P.K.
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (10S)
12U upgraded to a TC.
WTAU05 APRF 251904
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S121E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1904UTC 25 JANUARY 2011
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Bianca was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal eight south (17.8S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal eight east (120.8E)
Recent movement : southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1800 UTC 26
January.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 0600 UTC 26 January
with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots developing within 70 nautical miles of centre with rough
to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 26 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 18.9 south 119.0 east
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 26 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 19.7 south 116.7 east
Central pressure 978 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 26 January 2011.
WEATHER PERTH
WTAU05 APRF 251904
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S121E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1904UTC 25 JANUARY 2011
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Bianca was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal eight south (17.8S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal eight east (120.8E)
Recent movement : southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1800 UTC 26
January.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 0600 UTC 26 January
with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots developing within 70 nautical miles of centre with rough
to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 26 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 18.9 south 119.0 east
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 26 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 19.7 south 116.7 east
Central pressure 978 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 26 January 2011.
WEATHER PERTH
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 120.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 18.9S 119.0E: 040 [075]: 050 [095]: 983
+24: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.7E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/0600: 20.6S 114.3E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 971
+48: 27/1800: 21.9S 111.7E: 135 [250]: 075 [140]: 962
+60: 28/0600: 23.9S 109.6E: 165 [305]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 28/1800: 26.1S 108.4E: 195 [360]: 060 [110]: 972
REMARKS:
Broome radar shows improving definition of a small circulation, now over open
water and intensifying. Despite competing peripheral convection and lack of
persisting convection over the centre in the last 12 hours, recent imagery shows
deep convection about the centre.
Dvorak curved band analysis ranges from 0.4-0.7 wrap, with the higher range
chosen using a tight curvature. This suggests a DT=3.0 and given the system was
land affected 24 hours ago, FT/CI is 3.0 and hence cyclone intensity is reached.
Further intensification is forecast given the ongoing low vertical wind shear
[currently 10-15 knots] and high ocean heat content [SST >30C]. On Thursday it
is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then
likely from late Friday or Saturday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and
then later experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 120.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 18.9S 119.0E: 040 [075]: 050 [095]: 983
+24: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.7E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/0600: 20.6S 114.3E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 971
+48: 27/1800: 21.9S 111.7E: 135 [250]: 075 [140]: 962
+60: 28/0600: 23.9S 109.6E: 165 [305]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 28/1800: 26.1S 108.4E: 195 [360]: 060 [110]: 972
REMARKS:
Broome radar shows improving definition of a small circulation, now over open
water and intensifying. Despite competing peripheral convection and lack of
persisting convection over the centre in the last 12 hours, recent imagery shows
deep convection about the centre.
Dvorak curved band analysis ranges from 0.4-0.7 wrap, with the higher range
chosen using a tight curvature. This suggests a DT=3.0 and given the system was
land affected 24 hours ago, FT/CI is 3.0 and hence cyclone intensity is reached.
Further intensification is forecast given the ongoing low vertical wind shear
[currently 10-15 knots] and high ocean heat content [SST >30C]. On Thursday it
is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then
likely from late Friday or Saturday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and
then later experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
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- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 6:00 am WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Bidyadanga
to Coral Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Bianca was estimated to be
210 kilometres west southwest of Broome and
275 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the southwest over
open waters west of Broome. The cyclone is expected to intensify further as it
moves steadily parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Thursday.
Gales are expected for a period between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland this
morning, extending to Karratha tonight and then to Coral Bay on Thursday.
Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between
Port Hedland and Karratha later today and moving further west overnight. These
winds are more likely if the cyclone tracks nearer the coast.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland,
extending west later today and on Thursday. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Bidyadanga and
Karratha including the communities of Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal,
Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham,
Point Samson, Dampier and Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cape Leveque, Lombadina,
Beagle Bay and Broome are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 120.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 6:00 am WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Bidyadanga
to Coral Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Bianca was estimated to be
210 kilometres west southwest of Broome and
275 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the southwest over
open waters west of Broome. The cyclone is expected to intensify further as it
moves steadily parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Thursday.
Gales are expected for a period between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland this
morning, extending to Karratha tonight and then to Coral Bay on Thursday.
Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between
Port Hedland and Karratha later today and moving further west overnight. These
winds are more likely if the cyclone tracks nearer the coast.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland,
extending west later today and on Thursday. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Bidyadanga and
Karratha including the communities of Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal,
Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham,
Point Samson, Dampier and Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cape Leveque, Lombadina,
Beagle Bay and Broome are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 120.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
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- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Wow, Bianca is HUGE! How is the rainfall situation in western Australia?
Rainfall is non existant in the North West unless we get some off systems such as this
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.8S
Longitude: 119.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 19.6S 117.9E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 978
+24: 27/0000: 20.6S 115.6E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 967
+36: 27/1200: 21.9S 112.9E: 110 [210]: 080 [150]: 958
+48: 28/0000: 23.7S 110.5E: 145 [270]: 075 [140]: 961
+60: 28/1200: 26.0S 108.7E: 190 [355]: 060 [110]: 972
+72: 29/0000: 28.5S 108.2E: 240 [445]: 055 [100]: 975
REMARKS:
0.8-1.0 banding on recent IR imagery gives 3.5 DT. MET is 3.0, PAT 3.5. FT is
set to 3.5 within constraints and hence CI is 3.5. ADT indicates CI around 3.1
but may be having some issues with intensifying this sytem rapidly enough. Raw
DTs are around 3.8. AMSU intensity estimate at 17Z indicated 1-min mean of 51
knots but may have a slight high bias.
Port Hedland radar shows early signs of a tighter inner eye wall [radius around
20-25nm] replacing the large banding eye evident in IR. Shear is low [4.4m/s at
18Z] and expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean
heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence
further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely
to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from
late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing
shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.8S
Longitude: 119.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 19.6S 117.9E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 978
+24: 27/0000: 20.6S 115.6E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 967
+36: 27/1200: 21.9S 112.9E: 110 [210]: 080 [150]: 958
+48: 28/0000: 23.7S 110.5E: 145 [270]: 075 [140]: 961
+60: 28/1200: 26.0S 108.7E: 190 [355]: 060 [110]: 972
+72: 29/0000: 28.5S 108.2E: 240 [445]: 055 [100]: 975
REMARKS:
0.8-1.0 banding on recent IR imagery gives 3.5 DT. MET is 3.0, PAT 3.5. FT is
set to 3.5 within constraints and hence CI is 3.5. ADT indicates CI around 3.1
but may be having some issues with intensifying this sytem rapidly enough. Raw
DTs are around 3.8. AMSU intensity estimate at 17Z indicated 1-min mean of 51
knots but may have a slight high bias.
Port Hedland radar shows early signs of a tighter inner eye wall [radius around
20-25nm] replacing the large banding eye evident in IR. Shear is low [4.4m/s at
18Z] and expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean
heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence
further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely
to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from
late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing
shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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WTXS33 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.9S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 29.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 33.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH RESULTING
IN A CLOSER CPA TO LEARMONTH (36 NM NORTH AT 27/07Z); THE TIMING
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND
A WELL DEFINED CENTER. A 260109Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A LOW-LEVEL SYMMETRIC RING SIGNATURE
TYPICAL OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AS WELL AS ON
26/00-01Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, LOCATED 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 39-47
KNOTS WITH 995 MB SLP. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY
TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE STR AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS (NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR AND GFDN) DUE TO THE
POOR GFDN TRACK WHICH IS WELL EAST AND OUTSIDE THE AIDS ENVELOPE.
BASED ON THE HIGH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36, TC 10S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT 30 KNOT
PER DAY RATE WITH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 10S
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
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