TPXS10 PGTW 101218 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 13.7S
D. 54.0E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT KEPT AT 3.0 DUE
TO CONSTRAINTS. CORRECTED FOR NEW LONGITUDE BASED ON REANALYSIS
OF THE 10/1130Z IMAGE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0640Z 13.4S 54.3E TRMM
UEHARA
SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.5S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.6S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 100316Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
WEAKENED. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO RE-
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH TRACKS FARTHER EASTWARD. TC BINGIZA IS EXPECTED
TO THEN INCREASE IN SPEED AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 13S SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
NORTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR ERRONEOUSLY TRACK
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW INITIAL TRACK SPEED AND THEN THE LATER
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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ZCZC 170
WTIO30 FMEE 101824 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 54.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 148 SE: 148 SO: 185 NO: 222
34 KT NE: 074 SE: 074 SO: 074 NO: 074
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/11 06 UTC: 13.7S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/11 18 UTC: 13.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/12 06 UTC: 13.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/12 18 UTC: 14.4S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/13 06 UTC: 15.0S/54.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/13 18 UTC: 15.8S/53.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 14/02/2011 18 UTC: 17.6S/52.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 15/02/2011 18 UTC: 19.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
LAST AVALAIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A
SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.
MOVEMENT REMAINS SLOW WITH POORLY DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
NWP MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
UP TO SATURDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, WITH THE PERSISTANT
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN TOO WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM.
BEYOND 48 TAU, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNDAY, AS A SECOND OUTFLOW
POLARWARDS CHANEL BUI
LD PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 101824 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 54.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 148 SE: 148 SO: 185 NO: 222
34 KT NE: 074 SE: 074 SO: 074 NO: 074
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/11 06 UTC: 13.7S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/11 18 UTC: 13.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/12 06 UTC: 13.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/12 18 UTC: 14.4S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/13 06 UTC: 15.0S/54.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/13 18 UTC: 15.8S/53.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 14/02/2011 18 UTC: 17.6S/52.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 15/02/2011 18 UTC: 19.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
LAST AVALAIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A
SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.
MOVEMENT REMAINS SLOW WITH POORLY DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
NWP MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
UP TO SATURDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, WITH THE PERSISTANT
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN TOO WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM.
BEYOND 48 TAU, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNDAY, AS A SECOND OUTFLOW
POLARWARDS CHANEL BUI
LD PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN
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Still looks decent though it hasn't really evolved much in the last 12-18hrs or so with the same comma wrap.
What has changed is the models have come into agreement with a landfall, so lets just hope that it does stay weaker then expected!
What has changed is the models have come into agreement with a landfall, so lets just hope that it does stay weaker then expected!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 003
WTXS31 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.6S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 53.7E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. BINGIZA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO WEAKENED
MID-LAYER STEERING RIDGES IN A WEAK AND AMBIGUOUS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH PASSES DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS
POSITIONED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND CREATE ANOTHER MEANS FOR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ALIGNED ATOP THE SYSTEM AND HAS HELPED TO RELAX
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE LOWER SHEAR CONVECTION IS SHALLOW
AND YIELDS A 3.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FMEE.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR AND IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION TO ACCOUNT FOR DISPLACEMENT OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TC WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE CENTER
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THIS
STRENGTHENED STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 72. BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY DISSIPATED OVER
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
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Not really that much of an inner core there, the Northern part is in the formative stage but other then that its all fairly open.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Still a poor inner core and thats not a good sign for it getting much stronger then it already is, though a system aove 65kts is still very possible even with that structure...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
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- Contact:
ZCZC 551
WTIO30 FMEE 111240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 53.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 075 SE: 075 SO: 075 NO: 075
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 14.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 15.1S/53.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/13 00 UTC: 15.2S/53.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2011/02/13 12 UTC: 15.3S/52.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 15.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 15.9S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 15/02/2011 12 UTC: 17.9S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
120H: 16/02/2011 12 UTC: 19.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+. CI=3.0
BINGIZA IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 NM NORTHNORTHWEST OF LA REUNION AND 250
NM
EASTNORTHEAST OF SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND (MADAGASCAR)
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THAN PREVIOUSLY BUT VIGOROUS
CONVECTION
HAS STARTED NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY.
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS AT 4-5 KT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY.
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH A
BAROMETRIC COL TO ITS SOUTH AND A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CONTINU TOMORROW AND SO FOR
THE
EXPECTED MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.
SATURDAY, ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCES FROM 00Z ARE STILL IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A REBUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR VERY STRONG) AND A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK
TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITH A LANDFALL LIKELY ON
MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT B
ETWEEN ANTALAHA AND MAHANORO. IN FACT, AT PRESENT TIME, THE THREAT
SEEMS
HIGHER FOR THE AREA BETWEEN CAP MASOALA AND TOAMASINA)
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY TO COOLER SST AS THE
SYSTEM
HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY, BINGIZA HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED. THIS
APPEAR TO BE VERY TEMPORARY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAKER
WINDSHEAR
TOMORROW AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS SUNDAY. PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOW A GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 24H AND THEN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL GUIDANCE
SHOW
A STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.
THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
AND IT
BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION TO CLOSELY
MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 111240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 53.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 075 SE: 075 SO: 075 NO: 075
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 14.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 15.1S/53.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/13 00 UTC: 15.2S/53.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2011/02/13 12 UTC: 15.3S/52.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 15.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 15.9S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 15/02/2011 12 UTC: 17.9S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
120H: 16/02/2011 12 UTC: 19.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+. CI=3.0
BINGIZA IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 NM NORTHNORTHWEST OF LA REUNION AND 250
NM
EASTNORTHEAST OF SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND (MADAGASCAR)
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THAN PREVIOUSLY BUT VIGOROUS
CONVECTION
HAS STARTED NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY.
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS AT 4-5 KT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY.
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH A
BAROMETRIC COL TO ITS SOUTH AND A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CONTINU TOMORROW AND SO FOR
THE
EXPECTED MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.
SATURDAY, ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCES FROM 00Z ARE STILL IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A REBUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR VERY STRONG) AND A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK
TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITH A LANDFALL LIKELY ON
MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT B
ETWEEN ANTALAHA AND MAHANORO. IN FACT, AT PRESENT TIME, THE THREAT
SEEMS
HIGHER FOR THE AREA BETWEEN CAP MASOALA AND TOAMASINA)
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY TO COOLER SST AS THE
SYSTEM
HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY, BINGIZA HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED. THIS
APPEAR TO BE VERY TEMPORARY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAKER
WINDSHEAR
TOMORROW AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS SUNDAY. PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOW A GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 24H AND THEN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL GUIDANCE
SHOW
A STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.
THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
AND IT
BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION TO CLOSELY
MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN
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