WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[Typhoon Hunter]

max wind vector for 850mb from ECMWF is around 45m/s or 162kph at day 6....

Highest I could find was 51m/s at 192hrs whilst approaching Amami-oshima, that would be one hell of a blow!!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[phwxenthusiast]

wow!! 51m/s that's around 180kph.. that is freaking scary...!!!

[Infdidoll]

Yeah. I think I just crapped my pants, by the way. What the heck? It's not like we really have someplace to evacuate to. We're on an island.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah. I think I just crapped my pants, by the way. What the heck? It's not like we really have someplace to evacuate to. We're on an island.

That's why your island has some of the best and most storm resistant infrastructure in the world!

[ManilaTC]

Anybody got a link to 500MB and 200MB analysis?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Anybody got a link to 500MB and 200MB analysis?

Here you go, just chose the layer you want:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W!

[StormingB81]

It has it as 08 Eight on the NRL site just awaiting for everything to pop up!

[Infdidoll]

Streamline analysis seems to reflect the ECMW model pretty well. Flipping through the different intensity possibilities on those streamline analyses...possible track doesn't seem to vary all that much for our area based on intensity, though it will make a big difference for China and South Korea. We still appear to be near the path of this storm, if not right in it. I warned a few friends they might want to hit the stores before word gets out, but not to hate me if nothing goes down. Unfortunately, it's a madhouse every time a storm is on the way.

Just amazes me...How do they predict this stuff and then BAM! There's the storm...Meteorology just blows my mind these days.

[StormingB81]

Still nothing on JTWC I am wondering if they are just going to wait till 11pm to post it.

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110551Z JUL 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 157.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 157.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.5N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.2N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.5N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 157.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 30-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110551Z JUL 11
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 110600).//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[Iune]

Next name is "Meari" submitted by North Korea and means "Echo". The last Typhoon Meari was a category four typhoon that did ~$800 million in damages in Japan.

[ManilaTC]

Next name is "Meari" submitted by North Korea and means "Echo". The last Typhoon Meari was a category four typhoon that did ~$800 million in damages in Japan.

Sorry man, Meari was 07W.
This one will be named Ma-On

The next Philippine name, when this enters PAR in the northernmost part below 25N will be Hanna

[dexterlabio]

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
/WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. A 110928Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
AND ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 110742Z
PARTIAL WSAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 08W IS LOCATED IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 08W IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

So a decent TD at last...

[euro6208]

The 8th tropical cyclone of the 2011 typhoon season is here. latest forecast from euro shows a very large, very powerful typhoon, possibly a monster cat 5 supertyphoon south of japan. it is so large, areas as far south as guam and north to japan might get affected. it is forecast to get even larger as it nears okinawa.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1007.8mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 3.0

08w is so organized for a *depression*. I think it is already a tropical storm just by looking at it.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good ... likely to be a tropical storm soon

[HURAKAN]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 18N 156E WEST 10 KT.

[HURAKAN]

TXPQ26 KNES 111506
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NONAME)

B. 11/1432Z

C. 18.1N

D. 157.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT = 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. A LITTLE HIGH ON THE AMSU MICROWAVE
CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/1425Z 18.6N 157.6E AMSU


...KIBLER

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1007.2mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 3.9

The Raw is going crazy with this system!!