ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KWT]

I think thats because the recon fixes are going more with the global models since they probably think are likely to be more accurate then the BAM suite and the models are nearly all north of the islands.

Will have to wait and see, I'm not totally convinced just yet but rather depends on what area comes together, if it comes together at all...

[cycloneye]

The air has moisten ahead of the wave axis and that may be helpful to mix up the dry air and have a better chance to develop,if it does so.

Martinique radar

[PTrackerLA]

I'm actually thinking development chances may be lower today. This wave is really booking it along and I can't make out any low level circulation. On the CIMSS loop the wave axis isn't as sharp as it was two days ago and this looks to have to interact with the greater Antilles for the next few days. Wouldn't surprise me at all if this system continues to just barrel westward eventually burying itself in the Yucatan next week without much fanfare.

[KWT]

PTrackerLA, to be fair it does look like that rotation has eased off there, mind you the models by in large do show it strengthening at least a little to the north of the Caribbean.

[ronjon]

12z NAM now south of Cuba..hmmmm..

[GCANE]

[KWT]

Tracks right through the islands, would be a rainmaker but not much else till the Gulf on that run.

[Blown Away]

The convection is really begin to pop around the broad circulation. I say 30% at the TWO.

[Blown Away]

PTrackerLA, to be fair it does look like that rotation has eased off there, mind you the models by in large do show it strengthening at least a little to the north of the Caribbean.

What models show strengthing N of Caribbean? Nogaps does,...

[KWT]

The UKMO strengthens it, the ECM also strengthens it briefly as well around 72hrs out.

Note, strengthening doesn't mean I think its going to develop then and thats not what the models by in large show, but they do suggest an increase in Vorticity at the very least around the 48-72hrs timeframe JUST north of Hispaniola.

[Ivanhater]

The intensity models like this

[BigA]

IMHO the guidance will probably continuing shifting a bit southward until most of them have 90L going south of Hispaniola and Cuba. Certainly seems more plausible than it going north of the islands, though straight through them is a distinct possibility.

[PTrackerLA]

Sure seems pretty aggressive Michael, we will see. Either way I think this wave has a good shot at reaching the Gulf in one form or another, so I'll be keeping a close eye on it.

[BigA]

Convection, albeit scattered, is popping this afternoon, and the 1500 vorticity map shows stronger vorticity than the 0900 map. Should be interesting to see what it looks like on radar tonight as it passes through the islands..

[KWT]

That does seem to happen more often than not BigA so its something to keep an eye, especially in any formative swtage of development.

[TheBurn]

Slowly coming together?

[Bocadude85]

12z NAM now south of Cuba..hmmmm..

Interesting.. but I will say that the NAM is not that great of a tropical forecasting model.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have no doubt that this will develop, Dr. Masters on Wunderground is going on Vacation.

[vbhoutex]

This one has my attention. But I don't see any development in the next 48 hours or so, if not longer. Sure looks like there is SWerly shear out ahead of it and there is very little if any consolidation of the convection associated with this system. I do have a hard time agreeing with any models that take this N of the islands as it appears that it has actually turned a little more to a Werly course on the last tracking I saw. Maybe we'll see more in 3-4 days. My guess is it will be in the Caribbean, not N of the islands. That is why it has my attention.

[KWT]

The only question mark with regards to whether it goes north or south of the islands is where the center tries to develop. If it develops somewhere close to where the NHC think then indeed it may well struggle to get north of the islands...then again if forms further north then who knows!