ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#41 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:23 pm

This year.. I have decided to post NOGAPS runs so I can compete with IVAN's love for the NAM....we will see who wins.. :lol:

93L coming in alot more south and west...FL to GOM threat down the line IMO....especially with a building ridge to the north...notice that dip in the BAMM...interesting...
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:25 pm

Image

Uploaded by imageshack.us
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Re: Re:

#43 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:44 pm

Rainband wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:Yowzah. If those 300+ hr GFS forecasts verified with simultaneous hurricanes off either coast of Florida, there'd be rioting in the streets and the S2K server would be a smoldering ruin from the overload.
link???


Better yet, here's the image:

Image
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Re: Re:

#44 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:48 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Rainband wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:Yowzah. If those 300+ hr GFS forecasts verified with simultaneous hurricanes off either coast of Florida, there'd be rioting in the streets and the S2K server would be a smoldering ruin from the overload.
link???


Better yet, here's the image:



Well the more likely option is all that energy is in one bundle and over FL. Models are notorious for showing two lows, but the solution is one storm. That is a lot of heat...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:48 pm

GFS Ensembles

Image
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Re:

#46 Postby plasticup » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:53 pm

westwind wrote::uarrow: looks like 93L is going to catch up with L92. I wonder if they will merge.
Could this slow development of both disturbances?

No idea whether they are going to merge, but merging does tend to hinder development, at least in the near-term. The merging circulations fight each other, like two bicycle wheels rubbing together.
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Re: Re:

#47 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:57 pm

drezee wrote:Well the more likely option is all that energy is in one bundle and over FL. Models are notorious for showing two lows, but the solution is one storm. That is a lot of heat...


Being a Floridian, I'd rather not have the GFS splitting the difference here, with one big storm directly on top of us.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#48 Postby HurricaneFan » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneFan wrote:Why is 93L also moving slow compared to past Tropical Waves?


Weak subtropical ridge caused by a negative NAO. But it is forecast to turn positive after mid August.

Image

But wasn't the NOA negative all season so far?Why was the ridge strong until now?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#49 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:19 pm

Welcome to the crazy world of meteorology :lol:

On a more serious note, I think the recurving typhoons in the Pacific in addition to the changing seasons has allowed the NAO to climb out of the depths of the pit of doom...but only briefly. It will likely switch back to negative by the time winter arrives if these past two winters have been any indication of what this winter is to be like. :)

HurricaneFan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneFan wrote:Why is 93L also moving slow compared to past Tropical Waves?


Weak subtropical ridge caused by a negative NAO. But it is forecast to turn positive after mid August.

Image

But wasn't the NOA negative all season so far?Why was the ridge strong until now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#50 Postby HurricaneFan » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Why are some some of the models turning NW at the end of their runs?
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#51 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:24 pm

That GFS Model map is scary!! It will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#52 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:26 pm

Well I'll be...18z GFS is concerning....pattern change in the works I'd say....Late night in the making indeed :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#53 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:30 pm

I would not pay too much attention to those gray lines...that is really confusing whether they SFWMD know it or not...

HurricaneFan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Image

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Why are some some of the models turning NW at the end of their runs?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:44 pm

You normally see dying convection after a wave splashes into the water,but in this case,it has gained convection in a steady way.This pic is from 9:45 PM EDT.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#55 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:07 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:Why are some some of the models turning NW at the end of their runs?


The ones that show an early recurve must be the ones that have a weaker ridge that doesn't extend that far west.
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#56 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:42 pm

Oops wrong thread. Btw 93L is looking pretty good. With the model support we are seeing, we might get a code orange soon.
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#57 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:43 pm

00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re:

#58 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:47 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


If it developes rather quickly then i think the odds increase this storm will recurve. Not really putting to much stock in the long range gfs. ECM says recurve for now.
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Re: Re:

#59 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


If it developes rather quickly then i think the odds increase this storm will recurve. Not really putting to much stock in the long range gfs. ECM says recurve for now.


Well the 00Z GFS develops the 850mb vorticity very quickly. It seems to rob the energy from 92L....
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Re:

#60 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



If that's the case, then 92L might be the one that becomes the monster...
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