ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Dave]

Water Vapor

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291345
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 28 20110629
133600 2008N 09413W 9698 00311 0051 +218 +202 208030 031 031 009 00
133630 2009N 09414W 9699 00310 0051 +219 +199 210029 030 033 010 03
133700 2011N 09415W 9712 00298 0055 +193 //// 231026 027 048 027 05
133730 2012N 09416W 9696 00310 0050 +194 //// 228027 029 047 032 01
133800 2013N 09417W 9702 00304 0046 +226 +195 232026 027 035 016 00
133830 2014N 09418W 9701 00303 0043 +235 +197 240022 022 032 011 00
133900 2015N 09419W 9701 00305 0049 +200 +198 258021 022 047 037 03
133930 2016N 09421W 9701 00303 0046 +199 //// 261021 022 050 022 05
134000 2017N 09422W 9702 00304 0044 +232 +198 254022 022 024 008 00
134030 2018N 09423W 9701 00304 0044 +231 +203 257024 024 024 006 00
134100 2019N 09424W 9700 00304 0043 +226 +197 255021 023 027 009 00
134130 2020N 09425W 9700 00304 0042 +232 +201 259022 023 023 007 03
134200 2021N 09426W 9703 00299 0040 +239 +202 261022 023 021 006 03
134230 2022N 09427W 9699 00303 0040 +235 +207 257019 021 023 006 03
134300 2023N 09428W 9703 00300 0040 +235 +204 251018 019 017 006 00
134330 2024N 09429W 9700 00302 0040 +237 +213 254021 022 022 006 00
134400 2025N 09430W 9703 00298 0039 +235 +219 254020 021 018 006 03
134430 2026N 09431W 9699 00302 0038 +236 +217 245020 022 014 006 03
134500 2027N 09433W 9704 00297 0037 +240 +218 241020 021 020 006 03
134530 2028N 09434W 9697 00303 0037 +233 +219 245024 026 026 010 00
$$
;

[TheBurn]

[Frank2]

Just a guess but perhaps a strong TS might be in store for the coastline once the center reaches it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Can someone tell me what that is, seen coming from the north of Arlene, it looks an outflow from the T-storms over the southern plains last nite or some sort of dry air being forced southward.

There is some dry air being drawn into the system from the north, but it doesn't appear to be a very signficant factor at this time...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291355
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 29 20110629
134600 2029N 09435W 9698 00301 0037 +230 +218 249023 024 029 006 03
134630 2031N 09436W 9698 00301 0037 +234 +217 248022 023 023 006 00
134700 2032N 09437W 9704 00295 0036 +237 +217 245022 023 021 006 03
134730 2033N 09438W 9700 00298 0035 +236 +218 246022 023 020 005 00
134800 2034N 09439W 9698 00299 0036 +226 +220 244022 024 025 008 00
134830 2035N 09440W 9700 00297 0035 +231 +225 242026 027 026 009 00
134900 2036N 09441W 9704 00290 0035 +210 //// 237024 028 049 036 05
134930 2037N 09443W 9697 00299 0035 +221 +219 241023 024 032 026 03
135000 2038N 09444W 9702 00294 0033 +235 +217 241024 025 022 004 00
135030 2039N 09445W 9700 00294 0032 +235 +215 239023 024 019 005 00
135100 2040N 09446W 9700 00296 0031 +235 +220 238026 028 028 005 00
135130 2041N 09447W 9698 00296 0031 +229 +219 239027 028 027 005 00
135200 2042N 09448W 9701 00292 0030 +234 +222 235029 030 028 004 03
135230 2043N 09449W 9701 00292 0029 +232 +228 231029 030 027 002 03
135300 2044N 09450W 9700 00292 0028 +235 +222 227026 029 024 003 00
135330 2045N 09452W 9699 00292 0027 +237 +223 224021 022 024 001 03
135400 2047N 09453W 9701 00291 0026 +238 +228 221022 023 023 001 00
135430 2048N 09454W 9699 00289 0026 +234 +227 219022 023 021 003 00
135500 2049N 09455W 9700 00289 0024 +236 +225 225020 021 021 002 03
135530 2050N 09456W 9698 00290 0023 +237 +231 224021 022 019 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 30 20110629
135600 2051N 09457W 9699 00287 0022 +237 +233 222022 022 021 003 03
135630 2052N 09459W 9698 00289 0021 +240 +234 220019 019 016 002 00
135700 2053N 09500W 9699 00286 0020 +240 +234 222020 021 014 003 00
135730 2054N 09501W 9701 00283 0020 +240 +236 220020 020 017 001 03
135800 2055N 09502W 9703 00282 0018 +240 +236 221020 021 011 003 03
135830 2057N 09503W 9698 00286 0017 +240 +236 214019 020 017 002 03
135900 2058N 09504W 9703 00279 0016 +240 +234 213019 019 015 001 03
135930 2059N 09506W 9694 00287 0016 +239 +238 211018 018 015 002 00
140000 2100N 09507W 9702 00278 0014 +240 +240 217018 018 014 003 00
140030 2101N 09509W 9698 00282 0013 +238 //// 213017 018 017 002 05
140100 2101N 09510W 9703 00277 0013 +238 +238 218014 014 011 001 03
140130 2102N 09511W 9700 00278 0012 +239 +238 225014 014 012 003 00
140200 2103N 09513W 9698 00281 0012 +238 +235 221014 015 012 003 00
140230 2104N 09514W 9703 00275 0012 +232 //// 224014 015 015 001 05
140300 2105N 09515W 9708 00269 0011 +237 //// 238013 015 016 004 05
140330 2106N 09516W 9698 00278 0009 +241 +235 229007 008 009 004 00
140400 2107N 09518W 9700 00276 0010 +240 +233 220005 006 001 004 03
140430 2108N 09519W 9699 00277 0009 +240 +233 215004 005 002 001 03
140500 2109N 09520W 9699 00276 0009 +240 +234 200005 005 001 003 00
140530 2110N 09521W 9699 00276 0008 +240 +234 190005 006 003 002 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[stormreader]

Can't see much of this moisture making it into Texas, unless perhaps upper level winds take it there well after landfall in Mexico. Looks like T-Storms to the north of the center are dissipating with most of the convection now beginning to blow up to the south. As models indicated, Arlene looks to move pretty much west now well south of the the border.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291415
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 31 20110629
140600 2112N 09522W 9701 00273 0008 +240 +234 194005 005 002 001 03
140630 2112N 09524W 9701 00272 0007 +240 +233 183004 004 002 001 03
140700 2113N 09525W 9701 00273 0006 +240 +238 171004 004 001 002 03
140730 2113N 09527W 9699 00272 0005 +240 +237 143004 005 000 002 03
140800 2114N 09529W 9699 00272 0004 +240 +238 102004 005 000 001 03
140830 2115N 09530W 9700 00270 0003 +245 +238 089007 008 001 001 03
140900 2115N 09532W 9700 00269 0002 +244 +237 074010 011 003 000 00
140930 2116N 09533W 9787 00189 0000 +249 +238 060015 017 007 002 03 (SFMR Flagged)
141000 2116N 09535W 9768 00208 0002 +245 +241 052021 024 018 003 03
141030 2117N 09536W 9738 00236 0002 +243 +238 053025 026 022 001 00 (No Flags)
141100 2118N 09538W 9703 00269 0005 +238 //// 056026 027 019 001 01
141130 2119N 09539W 9695 00278 0007 +236 //// 051028 028 020 002 01
141200 2120N 09540W 9695 00279 0008 +238 +237 052030 030 024 001 00
141230 2121N 09541W 9694 00282 0010 +236 //// 058033 034 029 000 05
141300 2123N 09542W 9693 00284 0012 +235 //// 061036 038 030 001 01
141330 2124N 09543W 9684 00294 0013 +232 //// 065037 038 030 000 05
141400 2126N 09543W 9683 00295 0016 +231 //// 066038 039 029 000 05
141430 2127N 09544W 9688 00293 0018 +229 //// 066037 038 029 001 01
141500 2128N 09544W 9691 00292 0019 +231 //// 064038 038 023 003 05
141530 2130N 09546W 9682 00302 0022 +230 +227 065035 036 025 001 03
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291425
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 32 20110629
141600 2131N 09547W 9695 00291 0023 +231 +229 059034 035 026 001 03
141630 2132N 09548W 9689 00297 0023 +233 +231 060034 035 025 002 00
141700 2133N 09549W 9688 00299 0025 +234 +228 060033 034 024 003 03
141730 2134N 09550W 9693 00297 0027 +233 +228 055033 034 025 001 00
141800 2135N 09552W 9688 00302 0028 +234 +230 056033 034 025 001 03
141830 2136N 09553W 9683 00308 0030 +235 +231 057032 033 023 000 03
141900 2138N 09554W 9689 00304 0031 +235 +233 059031 032 022 003 03
141930 2139N 09555W 9697 00299 0033 +234 +230 056031 032 024 001 00
142000 2139N 09555W 9697 00299 0033 +234 +232 055030 031 025 006 00
142030 2141N 09558W 9692 00306 0035 +227 //// 051030 032 029 015 01
142100 2142N 09559W 9687 00309 0037 +218 //// 059031 032 031 012 01
142130 2143N 09600W 9695 00303 0038 +224 //// 060030 031 026 005 05
142200 2144N 09601W 9702 00298 0038 +230 +222 050029 030 022 004 00
142230 2145N 09602W 9692 00307 0039 +229 +219 047029 030 025 003 00
142300 2147N 09604W 9692 00309 0040 +231 +217 049029 030 022 003 00
142330 2148N 09605W 9698 00304 0040 +234 +216 047030 031 022 003 00
142400 2149N 09606W 9693 00310 0042 +235 +217 047030 031 022 002 03
142430 2150N 09607W 9695 00309 0042 +234 +222 046029 029 019 003 00
142500 2151N 09608W 9696 00309 0043 +235 +222 045028 029 019 002 00
142530 2152N 09609W 9688 00317 0044 +235 +220 045028 028 018 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291427
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/14:08:00Z
B. 21 deg 14 min N
095 deg 28 min W
C. NA
D. 33 kt
E. 131 deg 98 nm
F. 198 deg 35 kt
G. 131 deg 100 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 24 C / 300 m
J. 24 C / 366 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF308 0201A ARLENE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:01:00Z
DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 18NM
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291435
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 33 20110629
142600 2153N 09611W 9694 00314 0046 +235 +225 047027 028 016 002 00
142630 2154N 09612W 9693 00313 0046 +238 +223 050027 027 015 002 03
142700 2155N 09613W 9705 00303 0047 +235 +228 047025 026 016 001 00
142730 2155N 09613W 9705 00303 0047 +235 +230 049025 025 017 002 00
142800 2157N 09615W 9701 00308 0048 +234 +229 048024 025 015 002 00
142830 2158N 09617W 9699 00310 0048 +234 +231 051024 025 015 002 00
142900 2200N 09618W 9702 00308 0049 +235 +225 047023 023 013 001 03
142930 2201N 09619W 9698 00313 0049 +235 +230 054024 024 014 004 03
143000 2202N 09620W 9702 00310 0050 +235 +227 052024 025 011 003 00
143030 2203N 09621W 9703 00310 0050 +234 +231 052023 023 011 003 00
143100 2204N 09623W 9698 00314 0051 +235 +230 053024 025 013 002 00
143130 2205N 09624W 9705 00307 0051 +235 +228 051023 025 012 001 03
143200 2206N 09625W 9698 00314 0053 +235 +230 052024 024 014 001 03
143230 2207N 09626W 9699 00317 0054 +235 +232 052025 025 015 001 03
143300 2208N 09627W 9703 00314 0054 +235 +231 051024 025 013 002 00
143330 2210N 09629W 9702 00315 0055 +235 +229 049023 024 014 001 03
143400 2211N 09630W 9699 00317 0056 +235 +228 046023 024 017 003 03
143430 2212N 09631W 9713 00304 0056 +237 +231 041026 028 019 002 03
143500 2213N 09632W 9716 00303 0056 +240 +233 041028 029 017 002 00
143530 2214N 09633W 9712 00307 0057 +240 +229 045027 028 020 001 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

latest vdm indicates that Arlene is not intensifying at the moment, pressure stays at 1000 mb

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291445
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 34 20110629
143600 2215N 09635W 9716 00304 0058 +237 +230 040025 026 019 003 03
143630 2216N 09636W 9715 00305 0058 +240 +233 035024 025 021 001 00
143700 2217N 09637W 9714 00307 0059 +240 +235 034023 024 022 001 03
143730 2218N 09638W 9713 00307 0059 +240 +231 032024 025 021 001 03
143800 2219N 09639W 9716 00305 0059 +240 +231 033025 026 020 002 00
143830 2220N 09640W 9712 00309 0060 +240 +232 030024 025 019 002 03
143900 2221N 09642W 9716 00305 0061 +240 +231 031026 027 023 001 00
143930 2222N 09643W 9717 00306 0061 +241 +233 034028 030 023 001 00
144000 2223N 09644W 9722 00303 0062 +243 +237 036029 029 025 001 03
144030 2224N 09645W 9719 00305 0062 +243 +231 038029 030 023 001 00
144100 2226N 09646W 9714 00310 0063 +241 +234 036028 029 023 002 03
144130 2227N 09647W 9712 00311 0063 +240 +233 040027 028 021 001 03
144200 2228N 09648W 9710 00314 0063 +239 +234 038027 027 019 002 03
144230 2229N 09650W 9716 00308 0063 +240 +236 039028 028 018 002 00
144300 2230N 09651W 9715 00312 0065 +236 +232 036027 027 021 002 03
144330 2230N 09653W 9709 00316 0066 +232 //// 029026 026 /// /// 05
144400 2229N 09654W 9710 00315 0065 +235 +233 029027 027 /// /// 03
144430 2227N 09655W 9716 00311 0066 +235 +230 027028 028 023 002 03
144500 2225N 09655W 9715 00312 0066 +235 +233 026027 027 019 005 03
144530 2224N 09655W 9713 00312 0065 +235 +229 025026 026 024 004 00
$$
;

[lebron23]

HURRICANE WATCH IS UP FOR MEXICO

[lebron23]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...NOW MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 95.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TUXPAN
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...AND EASTERN NUEVO
LEON...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN