ATL: IRENE - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

So the 00Z NAM will have a lot of G-IV data right?

[chris_fit]

So the 00Z NAM will have a lot of G-IV data right?

It Should... As far as I know, all the 00z models will... someone correct/confirm this?

[alch97]

FWIW, the 00z NAM will be running shortly....

Here is the final forecast point of the 18z run. Lets see if it goes left or right of it.



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Sh**!!! That's right by my house!!!

[Bocadude85]

I think for the 11pm EDT track forecast, a blend of the 18zGFS,18HWRF, and 12zECMWF would be a good way to go which would bend the track a tad to the left.

What do you guys think?

Regarding the 11PM track with the 18z model data I would speculate that the NHC keeps it where its at.. There isnt a huge rush right now to put up any watches or warning for the CONUS until Tues 5pm I would think... They willl wait for the 0z data and if anyone is going to bump a forecast track it's going to be Stewart @ 5am...

The NWS Miami has TS conditions for parts of S Fla Weds night.. I would think tuesday at 5pm would be to late to issue watches...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.856751966503136&lon=-80.13290405273437&site=mfl&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[boca]

They should since Grand Bahama has a hurricane watch and we have nothing 60 miles away.

[otowntiger]

Here is another look. You can see the models splitting with one camp over Florida or very near it and another one more east with a north movement at 78W through the Central and Northern Bahamas

lol! A very small camp of one over FL and one near it. The vast majority are still far east.

[AtlanticWind]

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

[GreenWinds]

Here is another look. You can see the models splitting with one camp over Florida or very near it and another one more east with a north movement at 78W through the Central and Northern Bahamas

a very small camp of one over FL and one near it. The vast majority are still far east.

I don't think that graphic has all the 18z models in it (i.e. I believe it's still showing 12z NOGAPS because 18z was much further west).
GFDL and HWRF though look right.

[gatorcane]

Yes just was going to mention that.

Both the NOGAPS and UKMET are not on there.

They are in the west camp

[JtSmarts]

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

You are thinking of Isidore 2002.

[chris_fit]

Dont think there is a 18z for the NOGAPS, only 12z and 00z

[SunnyThoughts]

The 2 models farthest west were run recently with 1/3 of the new data ingested from the GIV flight. The other models further east haven't been run with the new info yet.

[HurrMark]

Still think these shifts left are quite minimal. I'd expect the NHC to show more of a NNE curve in their 11pm track update. Not buying the GFDL at all as it's been horrible so far this season. In my opinion I think this storm gives the SE a big scare but mainly just clips eastern NC. I'd be extremely concerned if I were in the outer banks at this point. I base this off the fact that the storm continues to move somewhat north of even the current forecast points. Not sure what happens after that though...

*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

It is possible, but if it just clips OBX, remember that there is still the Northeast to deal with. What is notable about this storm is that any location along the East Coast is fair game at this point...I don't think we have had this situation since Floyd in 99...

[Tampa_God]

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

The "Hispaniola Effect". Was being mentioned earlier today, don't know if it is too far off the coast to have any chance now. Seems like it has made more of a movement to the west in the past hour though

[Nimbus]

The NWS Miami has TS conditions for parts of S Fla Weds night.. I would think tuesday at 5pm would be to late to issue watches...

Closest approach is (currently) further up the coast near Palm beach so that buys a few hours..

[umguy]

West Palm is part of SOFL.

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

The "Hispaniola Effect". Was being mentioned earlier today, don't know if it is too far off the coast to have any chance now. Seems like it has made more of a movement to the west in the past hour though

West Palm is considered part of SOFL tho.

[lonelymike]

00Z TVCM has swung farther east/ Avoids SC and is headed toward Northern NC coastline.

Its on the SFWMD website page.

[jlauderdal]

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

You are thinking of Isidore 2002.

one of them bounced off the southern coast of reggae land a few years ago, that system was doing everything it could to keep its fuel source...tropical systems are land haters for sure

[Patrick99]

It seems I remember a storm a few years ago moving along the top of the yucatan where the the storm seemed to get pulled south due to the land interaction, wondering if that could be happening here.

You are thinking of Isidore 2002.

one of them bounced off the southern coast of reggae land a few years ago, that system was doing everything it could to keep its fuel source...tropical systems are land haters for sure

hahaha I remember that one - which one was that? Was churning west, then all of a sudden tiptoed around Jamaica, then resumed west motion!

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM is rolling:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M