ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ugly looking thing thats for sure...Over all environment for this to intensity isn't all that favorable to say the least.
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Re: Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:ROCK wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:This is arguably the most confusing storm I've ever seen.
you should have joined in 2004.....this aint nothing...
Which storms in '04? Jeanne was pretty bad...
Fay in 08 was absolutely brutal... It had a magnate for every major land mass in the carribean and then made like four landfalls in Florida while being a TS the whole time.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?
84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical
84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?
not sure its going to make it..lol
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Ugly looking thing thats for sure...Over all environment for this to intensity isn't all that favorable to say the least.
If you believe the center is close to the islands then it is looking quite healthy if you ask me. Check out the loop below.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1
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Annie Oakley
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical
84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?
Fay in 08 was absolutely brutal..
Faye was Fenominal.....
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical
84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?
not sure its going to make it..lol
true...its trying to...what a swing from east FL coast to this....sniffing something out there as well as the NAM...
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Aric Dunn
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96 hours.. NW carrib.. barely even noticable.. just a open wave..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
blp wrote:SFLcane wrote:Ugly looking thing thats for sure...Over all environment for this to intensity isn't all that favorable to say the least.
If you believe the center is close to the islands then it is looking quite healthy if you ask me. Check out the loop below.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1
I agree. Depends where the center is...
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HurricaneWarning92
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Wow! look at the blue colors right on top of the islands.
Last edited by HurricaneWarning92 on Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The tropics are fickle!
Is Emily getting rounder at the present moment in the satellite presentation?
It looks like it's going to blow. Of course this is just based on looks, and the NHC forecast is the real deal as conditions are forecast to be marginal for development. I wouldn't discount the risk of this one reaching Cat 1 or even 2 before getting to the DR however. Large systems take a while to get going, but once they get going they're harder to stop. Any of you seeing Emily looking nice and plump tonight?
Is Emily getting rounder at the present moment in the satellite presentation?
It looks like it's going to blow. Of course this is just based on looks, and the NHC forecast is the real deal as conditions are forecast to be marginal for development. I wouldn't discount the risk of this one reaching Cat 1 or even 2 before getting to the DR however. Large systems take a while to get going, but once they get going they're harder to stop. Any of you seeing Emily looking nice and plump tonight?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
whats going to be interesting is to see is what the GFDL and HWRF do here in a few....then you have the mighty EURO to finish things off....
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
So GFS takes it west and kills it basically, correct? But why? Looking at the 250mb wind heights... there isn't a lot of shear in the area.
http://tinyurl.com/3wgjnzm
http://tinyurl.com/3wgjnzm
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
FireRat wrote:The tropics are fickle!
Is Emily getting rounder at the present moment in the satellite presentation?
It looks like it's going to blow. Of course this is just based on looks, and the NHC forecast is the real deal as conditions are forecast to be marginal for development. I wouldn't discount the risk of this one reaching Cat 1 or even 2 before getting to the DR however. Large systems take a while to get going, but once they get going they're harder to stop. Any of you seeing Emily looking nice and plump tonight?
who said its going to DR? ....
fun times in the model thread...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
You know the leewards are getting creamed with that one! 
Now that's convection!
Now that's convection!
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Hurricaneman
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SouthFloridawx
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