ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[wsquared77]

Checking in from here in New Bern, NC. We're keeping a VERY close eye on this storm. With it being 4-5 days out, I'm not sure when we'll make a evacuation decision. We were just talking last night that we live in 90 year old house in downtown New Bern, so it's seen its fair share of storms, but we won't mess around with a cat 3/4. Our son is due to start school on Thursday. It could be an interesting start to the year! We went through several storms in south Florida when we lived there from 2001-2008, so all this feels (disturbingly) familiar! Everyone stay safe!

[HURAKAN]

big burst

[Dave]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

big burst

Yuck. Its tracking west more still and is ahead of intensity models.

[Dave]

If anyone would like to do graphics, hdobs, or both let me know....I can do it for a little while but will have to leave around 830 - 9 am.

[angelwing]

JB Tweets

Florida spared direct hit.No changes Carolinas north. Floydian path.. cat 3-4 in NC to cat 1-2New England. Multi billion dollar hit

track from NC north like Floyd, but storm will be stronger further north than Floyd was

Further north?!?!?!? Great and I MOVED north of Philly. I had gotten hit with Floyd , my shed is defintely going to sink into the ground now especially after last weekend

[xironman]

Looks like they have stopped transmitting for a while anyways.

[Dave]

Looks like they have stopped transmitting for a while anyways.

I see that...F5 is getting a workout with nothing coming in.

Anyone who wants to take over go ahead...I have to go to the local office for awhile today. Sort of a must do thing especially if I want to eat next month. Back later on today.

[Dave]

No hdobs received for awhile....waiting...

[Tampa_God]

She seems very wobbly this morning. I think the interaction with Hispaniola is playing some part of that.

[rainstorm]

DT was fairly general in his comments. depends on where it goes.

[deltadog03]

I will say...the models certainly didn't see this thing slowing down as much as it has....She looks good this morning. I call the CDO a "ball of hell"

[capepoint]

Checking in from here in New Bern, NC. We're keeping a VERY close eye on this storm. With it being 4-5 days out, I'm not sure when we'll make a evacuation decision. We were just talking last night that we live in 90 year old house in downtown New Bern, so it's seen its fair share of storms, but we won't mess around with a cat 3/4. Our son is due to start school on Thursday. It could be an interesting start to the year! We went through several storms in south Florida when we lived there from 2001-2008, so all this feels (disturbingly) familiar! Everyone stay safe!

Your biggest problem will be flooding. Downtown New Bern can really get deep water during the right wind conditions.

[Windtalker1]

Keep your eye on that little island to the left in the Caicos, I think it's Great Inagua, if the storm passes over or to the left of that Island, then the cone will have to move west back over the mainland of FL. Just my Opinion.

[O Town]

Looks like her core has pulled away from land now. Game on.

[sfwx]

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

[millibar]

JB Tweets

Florida spared direct hit.No changes Carolinas north. Floydian path.. cat 3-4 in NC to cat 1-2New England. Multi billion dollar hit

track from NC north like Floyd, but storm will be stronger further north than Floyd was

So hope he's wrong. Very worried here (understatemaent!).
Irene, please go out for some seafood, say 200 miles offshore....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

She will go from being an amatuer to a real storm today.

I dont recall any of the models being a cat 2 at this point. But thats maybe cause it missed major land interaction

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...CORE OF IRENE HEADED TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[SNOW_JOKE]

Irene isn't favoring the DR poking into her sides a couple of hours ago was quite a treat seeing the first signs of a eyewall coming up on the WV imagery, only to be scuppered by shear coming down off the mountains.
Once into more open waters again expect rejuvination of Irene's structure to start happening and the subsequent media feeds to start as Irene directly-approaches the first main populated center of the Bahamas.
Anyone know how the Bahaman's go about evac 300,000 locallers, hoteliers, and tourists at the height of summer season given its only 48hr away.