ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Annie Oakley
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Re:

#4101 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:18 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Oh recon, where art thou?


!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't feel like such a fool now lol.....

and thanks Dave et al for correcting me on posting dated OBS.
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#4102 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:20 am

:uarrow: They're like 50 minutes late now... I don't think I'm staying up anymore...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4103 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:21 am

I would expect all of those to shift west tomorrow....all the signs point to a westward solution right now...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4104 Postby nicole » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:21 am

10 tracks passing near Emily and one missed the US/Gulf. That leaves 9.

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/1220/capturemxo.jpg[/quote]

Very nice info! Looks like GOM it is!! 8-)[/quote]
Nothing indicates this will go into the Gulf. Check out the latest models: Image[/quote]


I was simply going over possibilities......plus are these not known to change? :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4105 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:22 am

ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical

84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?


Do you really think it's possible? I'm thinking a Florida or East Coast storm.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4106 Postby bamajammer4eva » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:23 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:Nothing indicates this will go into the Gulf. Check out the latest models: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif


Nogaps is old on there, Current one is here https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=120&set=Tropical

Canadian is in the gulf in the image you posted

UKMET is in the gulf in the image you posted
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4107 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:23 am

ROCK wrote:I would expect all of those to shift west tomorrow....all the signs point to a westward solution right now...


seems like it is already a tad south of the NHC forecast points now, and still cruising westerly.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4108 Postby nicole » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:25 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Nothing indicates this will go into the Gulf. Check out the latest models: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif


Nogaps is old on there, Current one is here https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=120&set=Tropical

Canadian is in the gulf in the image you posted

UKMET is in the gulf in the image you posted


Yep...def SOMETHING that indicates this could go into the GOM
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#4109 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:27 am

Convection starting to really pulse westward, with hints of banding.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Man I wish we had recon obs right now. Very interested in seeing if the center is under this convection. Radar would suggest it is.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon Discussion

#4110 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:28 am

Is this the one you guys are waiting for?

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
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Re:

#4111 Postby nicole » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:28 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Convection starting to really pulse westward, with hints of banding.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Man I wish we had recon obs right now. Very interested in seeing if the center is under this convection. Radar would suggest it is.


When should we have recon??
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4112 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:28 am

LaBreeze wrote:
ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical

84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?


Do you really think it's possible? I'm thinking a Florida or East Coast storm.


I am thinking a GOM issue from NO to up the west coast of FL right now.....
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Re:

#4113 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:29 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Convection starting to really pulse westward, with hints of banding.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Man I wish we had recon obs right now. Very interested in seeing if the center is under this convection. Radar would suggest it is.


yeah. to me it looks like it is under it.
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Re:

#4114 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:29 am

SouthDadeFish wrote::uarrow: They're like 50 minutes late now... I don't think I'm staying up anymore...

If Dave can stay up then so can I lol......for a little while at least. Dave and Hurakan and others who post the Recon Obs are like soldiers.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4115 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:30 am

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


full loop of the NOGAPS run....CMC looks the same area...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#4116 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:31 am

ROCK wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:
ROCK wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=084&set=Tropical

84hr NOGAPS moved over Jam and now under Cuba.....GOM bound anyone?


Do you really think it's possible? I'm thinking a Florida or East Coast storm.


I am thinking a GOM issue from NO to up the west coast of FL right now.....


i was thinking Pensacola to Fort Myers just my untrained opinion,,,
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4117 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:31 am

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon Discussion

#4118 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:31 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Is this the one you guys are waiting for?

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT



I do believe thats the one, it was suppose to leave an hour ago...at least I think it was 430z was 12:30 right?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4119 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:33 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES04452011214f96Dt3.jpg

It burns! :sun:
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#4120 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:34 am

She is really starting to pop :eek:
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