ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

Take it artist....new mission...another plane is in the air headed for Irene...

584
URNT15 KNHC 231321
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 02 20110823
125900 1742N 06449W 0092 00029 0126 +287 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
125930 1742N 06449W 0091 00025 0123 +276 +251 133009 014 /// /// 06
130000 1742N 06448W 9958 00129 0101 +264 +242 125022 024 /// /// 03
130030 1742N 06446W 9771 00301 0107 +247 +235 132023 024 /// /// 03
130100 1742N 06445W 9482 00559 0100 +226 +222 136026 028 /// /// 03
130130 1742N 06443W 9009 00998 0098 +203 +188 140027 028 /// /// 03
130200 1743N 06442W 8717 01282 0098 +186 +149 146026 026 /// /// 03
130230 1745N 06441W 8498 01506 0104 +176 +133 151024 025 /// /// 03
130300 1747N 06441W 8181 01829 0098 +161 +107 157023 023 /// /// 03
130330 1749N 06440W 7872 02150 0096 +137 +099 159023 023 /// /// 03
130400 1751N 06440W 7549 02513 0105 +118 +077 153021 022 /// /// 03
130430 1752N 06441W 7351 02743 0110 +106 +077 153020 020 /// /// 03
130500 1753N 06443W 7202 02909 0104 +096 +069 154019 020 /// /// 03
130530 1754N 06445W 6986 03164 0101 +086 +053 161018 019 /// /// 03
130600 1754N 06447W 6945 03213 0108 +077 +054 157018 019 /// /// 03
130630 1755N 06449W 6961 03196 0110 +077 +054 156018 018 /// /// 03
130700 1755N 06452W 6949 03208 0105 +077 +048 154018 019 /// /// 03
130730 1756N 06454W 6784 03401 0093 +073 +036 149018 018 /// /// 03
130800 1757N 06457W 6645 03570 0097 +060 +031 150017 018 /// /// 03
130830 1757N 06459W 6504 03748 0094 +054 -011 155018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

Check your GE...it's not AF300 anymore it's AF302...look for a second mission number....at work..back later.

[UpTheCreek]

One thing I've learned from all my years of tracking is...the NHC does a fantastic job within the 3-5 day cone. Everytime I think they're probably wrong.. it's been me who's been wrong. They do a fantastic job. So my faith is in them.

Me too, I have great faith in them. I really hope they are wrong about this one though!

[CronkPSU]

wasn't the 5 day cone for Irene pointed at miami and through to orlando on Saturday?

[Bocadude85]

This morning they said the trough that is supposed to give irene a ride hasn't even developed yet, which makes me skeptical on the nw to n turn.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am breathing a big sigh of relief here in South Florida. The model consensus is well east of here and I would be shocked if there are any significant shifts towards Florida at this point especially with the data that has been injected into the models. I don't think we will see much of anything here since it will pass so far east of us. Saved by a trough again here in Florida.

If anything it will create subsidence over the FL peninsula with NNE then NW windflow and dry, hot Thu. and Fri. it looks like.

Thats not exactly the current forecast... but I know the west side is the weakest so who knows.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.71004016936886&lon=-80.0408935546875&site=mfl&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[artist]

[crimi481]

ANDREW TRACK
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/inde ... tedIndex=1

Note: The trough that was to lift Andrew north - was not strong enough - and ridge built back in

[SouthDadeFish]

What a beautiful storm:

[eastcoastFL]

are those white dots where the center is? and also what are the white dots?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[micktooth]

We can talk all day about Andrew's track, but remember, that was 19 years ago. There have been so many improvements to models and forecasting since then. But then again, nothing is 100% when dealing with these storms. Just look back a few years ago to Katrina's expected track.

[GCANE]

are those white dots where the center is? and also what are the white dots?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

The white dots are Overshooting Tops (OTs).

They are Cumulus Nimbus towers with high parcel ascent that overshoot the cirrus clouds around it.

They are significant in that they heat the core due to latent heat release.

They are a sign of a strengthening hurricane.

[eastcoastFL]

without an eye I can not find the center at all. any advice?

[eastcoastFL]

are those white dots where the center is? and also what are the white dots?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

The white dots are Overshooting Tops (OTs).

They are Cumulus Nimbus towers with high parcel ascent that overshoot the cirrus clouds around it.

They are significant in that they heat the core due to latent heat release.

They are a sign of a strengthening hurricane.

Thank you, but are they in the immediate center of circulation?

[otowntiger]

This morning they said the trough that is supposed to give irene a ride hasn't even developed yet, which makes me skeptical on the nw to n turn.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am breathing a big sigh of relief here in South Florida. The model consensus is well east of here and I would be shocked if there are any significant shifts towards Florida at this point especially with the data that has been injected into the models. I don't think we will see much of anything here since it will pass so far east of us. Saved by a trough again here in Florida.

If anything it will create subsidence over the FL peninsula with NNE then NW windflow and dry, hot Thu. and Fri. it looks like.

That's exactly what I"m thinking. At the water cooler this morning people were looking at the morning paper (which had last night's track on it) and saying yeah we are going to get some rough weather out of this. I think it may be a little breezy but few clouds and less rain especially for us in the interior peninnsula. Now beach erosion is another thing.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231322
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 03 20110823
130900 1758N 06502W 6379 03908 0091 +048 -029 156017 018 /// /// 03
130930 1759N 06504W 6246 04081 0096 +033 -023 171019 020 /// /// 03
131000 1759N 06507W 6106 04262 0090 +022 -000 181019 020 /// /// 03
131030 1800N 06509W 5990 04413 0088 +012 -008 184019 021 /// /// 03
131100 1801N 06512W 5877 04568 0080 +007 -026 182020 021 /// /// 03
131130 1801N 06514W 5786 04695 0078 +003 -050 179019 020 /// /// 03
131200 1802N 06517W 5674 04848 0082 -012 -040 185018 020 /// /// 03
131230 1802N 06519W 5568 04999 0078 -019 -045 193018 020 /// /// 03
131300 1802N 06521W 5479 05134 0241 -025 -054 187017 019 /// /// 03
131330 1802N 06524W 5392 05257 0245 -028 -062 200017 018 /// /// 03
131400 1802N 06526W 5310 05383 0255 -025 -089 181019 021 /// /// 03
131430 1803N 06529W 5243 05482 0260 -038 -095 174016 017 /// /// 03
131500 1803N 06531W 5164 05599 0266 -045 -104 192014 014 /// /// 03
131530 1803N 06534W 5086 05721 0273 -049 -159 202015 017 /// /// 03
131600 1803N 06536W 5016 05828 0280 -057 -180 203018 018 /// /// 03
131630 1803N 06539W 4947 05940 0288 -067 -170 207019 020 /// /// 03
131700 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
131730 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
131800 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
131830 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 231339
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 04 20110823
131900 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
131930 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
132000 1803N 06541W 4878 06048 0294 -077 -176 209021 021 /// /// 03
132030 1801N 06558W 4445 06530 0093 -115 -195 213018 020 /// /// 03
132100 1803N 06559W 4379 06512 4929 -128 -235 218018 018 /// /// 03
132130 1804N 06601W 4319 06461 4842 -128 -325 220019 020 /// /// 03
132200 1805N 06604W 4259 06500 4783 -136 -329 216019 020 /// /// 03
132230 1806N 06606W 4195 06740 4832 -145 -236 210019 019 /// /// 03
132300 1807N 06608W 4145 06887 4936 -153 -256 207020 021 /// /// 03
132330 1807N 06610W 4088 07005 4975 -163 -252 209021 022 /// /// 03
132400 1808N 06612W 4029 07194 0056 -170 -193 214022 022 /// /// 03
132430 1809N 06614W 3980 07235 4977 -176 -198 209023 023 /// /// 03
132500 1810N 06616W 3943 07132 4853 -170 -187 205023 023 /// /// 03
132530 1811N 06618W 3925 07096 4783 -170 -190 204022 023 /// /// 03
132600 1812N 06621W 3923 07031 4666 -170 -187 204021 022 /// /// 03
132630 1813N 06623W 3926 06960 4658 -166 -196 201022 023 /// /// 03
132700 1814N 06625W 3925 06883 4593 -157 -197 206023 023 /// /// 03
132730 1815N 06628W 3925 07281 4936 -154 -197 212024 025 /// /// 03
132800 1815N 06630W 3925 07711 0395 -155 -194 220025 025 /// /// 03
132830 1816N 06632W 3927 07707 0395 -156 -187 221024 025 /// /// 03
$$
000
URNT15 KNHC 231340
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 05 20110823
132900 1817N 06635W 3926 07712 0397 -156 -184 217023 024 /// /// 03
132930 1818N 06637W 3926 07716 0400 -157 -182 219024 024 /// /// 03
133000 1819N 06640W 3926 07716 0401 -159 -182 219024 025 /// /// 03
133030 1820N 06642W 3926 07717 0402 -160 -186 220025 026 /// /// 03
133100 1821N 06644W 3926 07717 0402 -160 -184 220023 024 /// /// 03
133130 1822N 06647W 3926 07720 0404 -157 -181 224023 025 /// /// 03
133200 1823N 06649W 3927 07718 0403 -158 -174 224024 025 /// /// 03
133230 1824N 06651W 3926 07718 0401 -159 -172 222024 025 /// /// 03
133300 1825N 06654W 3927 07715 0401 -159 -178 222025 027 /// /// 03
133330 1826N 06656W 3926 07711 0396 -153 -187 228022 023 /// /// 03
133400 1827N 06658W 3926 07707 0393 -154 -183 245022 023 /// /// 03
133430 1828N 06701W 3925 07707 0390 -155 -176 256023 023 /// /// 03
133500 1829N 06703W 3926 07705 0390 -155 -174 257024 026 /// /// 03
133530 1829N 06705W 3926 07701 0388 -155 -174 256028 029 /// /// 03
133600 1830N 06708W 3926 07700 0386 -157 -173 256032 032 /// /// 03
133630 1831N 06710W 3926 07699 0385 -155 -173 255031 032 /// /// 03
133700 1832N 06712W 3925 07700 0384 -160 -170 253030 031 /// /// 03
133730 1833N 06714W 3926 07698 0381 -157 -171 254031 032 /// /// 03
133800 1834N 06717W 3926 07694 0379 -155 -172 262027 028 /// /// 03
133830 1835N 06719W 3927 07689 0377 -150 -178 269028 030 /// /// 03
$$
;

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

Here is central florida on the coast I still have TS conditions forecastfor thursday and friday.

[FireRat]

We can talk all day about Andrew's track, but remember, that was 19 years ago. There have been so many improvements to models and forecasting since then. But then again, nothing is 100% when dealing with these storms. Just look back a few years ago to Katrina's expected track.

Or Ike's track in 2008 when it threatened South Florida and then just charged SW into Cuba and into the Gulf!

However, the model consensus is great news for south Florida on this important day to determine the real chances of any type of impact. North Carolina is in for it though, so not everyone will be unscathed.

We went from 8/0/0 to now perhaps 9/1/1.....eh...911....what are the chances of that? pretty ironic if this does make major eh?

[Bocadude85]

Here is central florida on the coast I still have TS conditions forecastfor thursday and friday.

Yes we still have TS conditons in our forecast for Thursday and Friday here in South Florida.

[ColinDelia]

You still in Brevard, Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

You still in Brevard, Aric?

yep