ATL: IRENE - Models

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chris_fit
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#4161 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:56 pm

+48hrs .... gaining lat.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4162 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:56 pm

Not sure at this point, but it could mean she's in an area of weak steering currents.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4163 Postby Bruton » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:56 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I dont want this, days with no electricity is not something I would want or want for anyone else


Why? Don't you want lower bills?
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#4164 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:57 pm

That 2nd trough is a monster
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4165 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:58 pm

I was just looking at 500 MB loop. That second trough looks a bit more serious. Let's see how it plays out.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4166 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:58 pm

According to the GFS!!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4167 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:58 pm

Lower electric bill but a huge gas bill for the generator!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4168 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:59 pm

I see that this is now at 48hrs headed nnw on the 0zGFS meaning its probably close to the 18zGFS run for a path
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#4169 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:59 pm

chris_fit wrote:That 2nd trough is a monster


Yeah it looks more "sincere"...next few progs should be really telling. Wonder if it will change from "feel the weakness" to "trough picks it up"...

That would be something.
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#4170 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:00 pm

chris_fit wrote:That 2nd trough is a monster


Yeah, expect for July, we've had 'em (monster troughs) plowing off the coast since May. It has been a rather wet, cloudy and over all chilly season up here. :lol:
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#4171 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:00 pm

+54 hrs

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#4172 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:00 pm

Whos better at predicting troughs and ridges.. GFS or NAM or GFDL?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4173 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:01 pm

sponger wrote:Lower electric bill but a huge gas bill for the generator!

and that's bad at $3:50 + a gallon
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#4174 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:01 pm

Moving NW at 54 hrs, not NNW... interesting
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#4175 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:01 pm

That second trough is just too much to allow the ridge to build back in. I mean unless Irene just nosedives into Hispaniola, I now have a hard time seeing her make it to Florida.
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#4176 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:02 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Whos better at predicting troughs and ridges.. GFS or NAM or GFDL?


NAM is made for synoptic setups, and the GFS has been known to overestimate ridges.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4177 Postby fci » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:03 pm

deleted, not relating to models,sorry....
Last edited by fci on Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4178 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:03 pm

+60hrs

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4179 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:04 pm

the GFS depicts something like a Carolinas landfall with what I would think a second landfall on Long Island
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#4180 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:05 pm

+66hrs... well east of FL

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