ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SunnyThoughts]

Not exactly visible...but as close as we can come with water vapor I guess.

[Zampanò]

My eyes may be deceiving me (as they are prone to do with these developing systems, especially at night), but it looks to me as if the center may have started to reform roughly one degree to the east and one-half degree to the south of the NHC's given position, near the deepest convection. Of course, if this is the case, then we're about to see fairly rapid strengthening.

I've been wrong before, though. I fully expected a hurricane by now.

yeah i said that earlier it looked south oh NHC plot.But it is hard to tell at night with all those colors popping out at you on satellite.

I studied the shortwave imagery as closely as I could to try and discern a low-level circulation at the plotted location and I am simply not seeing it. With the intense, sustained convection nearby I believe it is reforming or has been "pulled under," so to speak.

[HurricaneWarning92]

My eyes may be deceiving me (as they are prone to do with these developing systems, especially at night), but it looks to me as if the center may have started to reform roughly one degree to the east and one-half degree to the south of the NHC's given position, near the deepest convection. Of course, if this is the case, then we're about to see fairly rapid strengthening.

I've been wrong before, though. I fully expected a hurricane by now.

yeah i said that earlier it looked south oh NHC plot.But it is hard to tell at night with all those colors popping out at you on satellite.

I see what you are saying. i can see a little swirl, though this could be the convection building up thus having the impression of a swirl. So who knows.

[Sanibel]

The center is bolting toward 65W and will pass it near the 16.4 latitude. It is way out ahead of the deep convection. Right on NHC trop points and track. Watch out if this thing co-locates.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WxEnthus]

Latest

[SeminoleWind]

west trend again for bam and tvcn models?

[Hylian Auree]

She looks beautiful, though convective structures can be deceiving to what's underneath

[HurricaneWarning92]

Disorganized or not, shes maintaining very deep convection. id say if it was that disorganized it wouldnt be doing so, but thats just my opinion.

[TwisterFanatic]

west trend again for bam and tvcn models?

BAMS went waaaaaaay west.

[HurricaneWarning92]

i think all models are gonna shift westwards once again...

[South Texas Storms]

i think all models are gonna shift westwards once again...

Yeah especially if it keeps booking west like it is right now.

[TwisterFanatic]

[WxEnthus]

Well, I'm off to get some rest, take care everyone. It'll be interesting to see what she looks like in the morning!

[HurricaneWarning92]

i think all models are gonna shift westwards once again...

Yeah especially if it keeps booking west like it is right now.

yep, shes going so fast she doesnt have time to turn more wnw. it will just keep passing by the NHC track points.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think the NHC model is going to shift a bit to the left since now the models are all over the place so they are gonna go somewhere in the middle of that mess.

[USTropics]

west trend again for bam and tvcn models?

Yes both the BAM, TVCN, and SHIPS have shifted west:

SHIP


TVCN

[HurricaneBrain]

This may very well end up farther west than originally expected!

[Shuriken]

The LLC is at the western edge of the westen-most heavy convection.

[Gustywind]

Wind is picking up with some gusts since 4AM with light showers. The night was very calm in my locality.

[Gustywind]