ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyFla]

Yes we still have TS conditons in our forecast for Thursday and Friday here in South Florida.[/quote]

Some high schools in PBC have changed football games and other activities to Wednesday night from Friday night to avoid the t/s expected conditions. There is talk of school closing as school buses cannot be on road when winds are 40mph sustained.[/quote]

every kid in south florida is talking about school closing, their isnt even a ts watch up, do your homework kids, school is in session[/quote]


I wasn't quoting the students (kids) ...I did have my information from teachers and administrators. IMHO I don't believe schools will close, however, official info can be found at the school district's website at http://www.palmbeachschools.org

['CaneFreak]

The center will likely pass 50 to 100 miles offshore...beach erosion should be your biggest concern...

i live at emerald isle and what do the pro mets think of the percentages we will get hurricane conditions here on the crystal coast
I am a business owner and have lots to do to prepare for a hurricane any thoughts would be appreciated.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 231417
97779 14134 30197 69600 30500 20039 10069 /3096
41545
RMK AF302 0809A IRENE OB 03
SWS = 43 KTS
SE INBOUND

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 14:13Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.7N 69.6W
Location: 87 miles (139 km) to the NNE (13°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 200° at 39 knots (From the SSW at ~ 44.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 10°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 6°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,096 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 150° at 45 knots (From the SSE at ~ 51.7 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 43 knots (~ 49.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

[eastcoastFL]

looks like an eye starting to show.

i sure hope so, i can track anything. i cant find the center and its driving me crazy.

[flamingosun]

I know this might be a dumb question, we are new to FL, 2 years, and have not experienced all this before, should we still put the hurricane shutters up and take everything off the porch, we have our supplies etc and are ready in the other ways.

Where are you? I'm in Brevard and haven't done anything yet. Personally I don't do shutters for anything less than a hurricane warning. I do secure everything outside under a tropical storm warning. I always have supplies during hurricane season (electric lanterns, gallons of water, etc etc) . I stocked up on fingers food yesterday cuz the grocery stores turn into a madhouse under warning.

If you get a warning, fill your gas tank and get some cash.

Just a cautionary tale. That used to be my line of reasoning, too, until Fay taught us a $9,000.00 lesson. We didn't put up shutters, as she was "only" a tropical storm that wasn't supposed to score a direct hit on Brevard.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231429
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 10 20110823
141900 1957N 06953W 6970 03115 0028 +079 //// 190041 041 042 003 01
141930 1958N 06954W 6964 03117 //// +069 //// 194039 040 044 006 01
142000 1959N 06956W 6976 03105 //// +080 //// 196042 043 043 002 01
142030 2000N 06958W 6966 03116 //// +080 //// 194043 044 043 006 01
142100 2001N 06959W 6970 03108 //// +070 //// 200046 048 044 007 01
142130 2002N 07001W 6964 03114 //// +075 //// 198047 047 045 008 01
142200 2003N 07003W 6974 03100 0007 +085 //// 198045 046 045 005 01
142230 2004N 07004W 6966 03109 0010 +075 //// 196045 046 043 008 01
142300 2005N 07006W 6967 03103 //// +080 //// 200047 048 045 008 01
142330 2006N 07007W 6967 03103 //// +070 //// 202048 050 046 009 01
142400 2008N 07009W 6962 03109 //// +072 //// 210042 044 046 012 01
142430 2009N 07010W 6968 03100 //// +077 //// 212038 039 047 009 01
142500 2010N 07012W 6968 03098 //// +088 //// 214040 041 046 006 01
142530 2011N 07014W 6962 03102 9980 +092 //// 212041 042 046 005 01
142600 2012N 07015W 6969 03098 9978 +098 //// 210044 044 046 004 01
142630 2013N 07017W 6967 03096 9985 +092 //// 209047 048 046 004 01
142700 2014N 07018W 6922 03148 9981 +091 //// 211050 051 047 005 01
142730 2015N 07020W 6907 03164 9980 +084 //// 211048 049 047 006 01
142800 2016N 07021W 6915 03158 9981 +078 //// 207048 048 046 009 01
142830 2017N 07023W 6914 03156 9978 +089 //// 204047 048 048 007 01
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon MOST of the latest model consensus showing just offshore, I would think the the track will shift to just off-shore with the next advisory. Or perhaps they will move it to just barely indland, but regardless, hopefully all of those along the coast take this
serioursly...

[otowntiger]

Of course, everyone along the east coast of Florida should remain vigilant. But this isn't a situation where steering currents are expected to weaken. That's a fairly deep trof digging down the East U.S. Coast now, even stronger than the models were forecasting. It's not the type of situation where we'd likely see Irene stall or turn west.

With the added G-IV data (and another flight today) all the models have come to very good agreement on a track through the eastern Bahamas then a turn north and north-northeastward toward the Outer Banks of NC. If Irene deviates from that track, then I think it has a better shot at tracking farther to the east, perhaps with the center not directly impacting the Outer Banks, rather than farther west.

As such, the east coast of Florida will likely see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with some higher gusts on Thursday/Friday as Irene passes 150-200 miles to the east. I'm running SLOSH for eastern NC and am getting around a 9-12 foot storm surge in the area. If Irene was to hit farther south near Wilmington, then the surge could reach 12-14 feet.

Thanks for the good info!!! Makes sense to me. So there is still a poss. that US could miss landfall altogether? I hope that comes to fruition!

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

I can see the EYE starting to clear out of HI res sat

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231435
XXAA 73147 99193 70689 04398 99006 26228 14528 00050 25628 14036
92734 22236 16042 85464 17438 18048 70104 09201 19535 88999 77999
31313 09608 81400
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 1931N06892W 1404 MBL WND 14538 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17040
005697 WL150 14036 083 REL 1928N06892W 140057 SPG 1931N06892W 140
409 =
XXBB 73148 99193 70689 04398 00006 26228 11850 17438 22808 14846
33796 14458 44776 13825 55727 10813 66712 11407 77697 08600
21212 00006 14528 11997 13537 22977 14537 33957 15044 44908 16541
55850 18048 66697 19535
31313 09608 81400
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 1931N06892W 1404 MBL WND 14538 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17040
005697 WL150 14036 083 REL 1928N06892W 140057 SPG 1931N06892W 140
409 =
;
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.3N 68.9W
Location: 86 miles (139 km) to the NE (49°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 145° (from the SE) 28 knots (32 mph)
1000mb 50m (164 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 140° (from the SE) 36 knots (41 mph)
925mb 734m (2,408 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 160° (from the SSE) 42 knots (48 mph)
850mb 1,464m (4,803 ft) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 13.6°C (56.5°F) 180° (from the S) 48 knots (55 mph)
700mb 3,104m (10,184 ft) 9.2°C (48.6°F) 9.1°C (48.4°F) 195° (from the SSW) 35 knots (40 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 19.31N 68.92W
Splash Time: 14:04Z

Release Location: 19.28N 68.92W View map)
Release Time: 14:00:57Z

Splash Location: 19.31N 68.92W (
Splash Time: 14:04:09Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 145° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 38 knots (44 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 40 knots (46 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1005mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

[Aric Dunn]

can you put a the last VDM on the map so we can compare ?

[Ev1948]

Thank you ,we are in Sebastian FL

I'm just north of you. I'd wait to see if we get any watches/warning and then follow the advice in them.
Wouldn't hurt to make sure you have flashlights, batteries, water, etc anyway. Basic hurricane kit to have on hand.

Thanks we have all our supplies, hubby makes fun of me because I start in June getting everything we might need.

[CronkPSU]

I know this might be a dumb question, we are new to FL, 2 years, and have not experienced all this before, should we still put the hurricane shutters up and take everything off the porch, we have our supplies etc and are ready in the other ways.

Where are you? I'm in Brevard and haven't done anything yet. Personally I don't do shutters for anything less than a hurricane warning. I do secure everything outside under a tropical storm warning. I always have supplies during hurricane season (electric lanterns, gallons of water, etc etc) . I stocked up on fingers food yesterday cuz the grocery stores turn into a madhouse under warning.

If you get a warning, fill your gas tank and get some cash.

Just a cautionary tale. That used to be my line of reasoning, too, until Fay taught us a $9,000.00 lesson. We didn't put up shutters, as she was "only" a tropical storm that wasn't supposed to score a direct hit on Brevard.

this is a good point, also doesn't hurt to make sure everything is still working and to go through a dry run in case we have another one in the next few months

[ColinDelia]

Just a cautionary tale. That used to be my line of reasoning, too, until Fay taught us a $9,000.00 lesson. We didn't put up shutters, as she was "only" a tropical storm that wasn't supposed to score a direct hit on Brevard.

Yeah I hear ya. I know a buncha people with similar stories. You definitely have to make your own judgement on what risks you are willing to take on for various circumstances.

[dwsqos2]

Eye or no eye, Irene isn't that impressive to me this morning. I still see lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. I see evidence of shear as well.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231439
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 11 20110823
142900 2018N 07025W 6915 03152 //// +082 //// 202049 051 050 009 01
142930 2019N 07026W 6913 03152 9967 +083 //// 199051 052 051 008 01
143000 2020N 07028W 6912 03148 9963 +091 //// 195053 054 051 006 01
143030 2021N 07029W 6916 03135 9960 +090 //// 195053 053 051 005 01
143100 2022N 07031W 6913 03134 9950 +093 //// 196057 058 052 004 01
143130 2023N 07033W 6916 03131 9945 +094 //// 196057 057 054 006 01
143200 2024N 07034W 6911 03128 9946 +085 //// 196061 062 054 006 01
143230 2025N 07036W 6908 03127 9925 +099 +088 196063 063 054 002 00
143300 2026N 07038W 6913 03116 9914 +103 +090 194063 064 055 002 00
143330 2027N 07039W 6916 03105 9899 +105 //// 190061 062 057 000 01
143400 2029N 07041W 6912 03095 9885 +107 +106 191065 065 060 002 00
143430 2030N 07043W 6911 03084 9864 +114 +104 193065 067 061 002 00
143500 2031N 07045W 6916 03065 9843 +122 +102 191063 064 062 003 00
143530 2032N 07046W 6911 03074 9823 +134 +092 182057 061 061 001 03
143600 2032N 07048W 6921 03031 9805 +132 +094 165047 048 058 003 00
143630 2033N 07050W 6925 03021 9796 +127 +096 161050 052 040 002 03
143700 2032N 07052W 6917 03019 9772 +138 +106 159037 049 032 000 03
143730 2032N 07054W 6909 03024 9768 +135 +110 175013 016 031 003 03
143800 2032N 07056W 6912 03018 9765 +138 +110 153006 008 026 002 03
143830 2031N 07058W 6916 03010 9764 +140 +100 326004 008 023 001 03
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

I can see the EYE starting to clear out of HI res sat

oh good, i was worried the models thread was going to win for the most posts for Irene...time to start wobble watching!!!

[cycloneye]

Eye or no eye, Irene isn't that impressive to me this morning. I still see lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. I see evidence of shear as well.

Still influenced by Hispanola just to the south.But once it moves away from there,it will takeoff in intensity.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure virtually unchanged from last night.