ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meso]

SHIPS was forecasting her to be under 20kt shear earlier. It is forecast to drop quite a bit later in the day though, I expect more intensification later this evening.

[artist]

obs 11

[psyclone]

Eye or no eye, Irene isn't that impressive to me this morning. I still see lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. I see evidence of shear as well.

considering the extent to which hispaniola is likely disrupting inflow, I'd say she's holding her own pretty well.

[tailgater]

976mb found on latest drop.

[Aric Dunn]

Eye or no eye, Irene isn't that impressive to me this morning. I still see lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. I see evidence of shear as well.

considering the extent to which hispaniola is likely disrupting inflow, I'd say she's holding her own pretty well.

her strength is one thing.. but it could keep her moving more west or wobble wsw ish for a little while till she gets free

[Aric Dunn]

looks south of the NHC 8am position

[dwsqos2]

The 976 was extrapolated from 700 mb, not from a drop yet.

Really, Irene looks the same as it did last night, T4.5, so that shouldn't be shocking.

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Not impressive?

[Aric Dunn]

yep eye clearing out.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

looks to be moving a little more westerly this morning ..
280 maybe ..

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231449
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 12 20110823
143900 2031N 07100W 6920 03012 9762 +144 +099 352010 012 /// /// 03
143930 2032N 07101W 6913 03018 9758 +146 +096 005017 020 021 000 00
144000 2033N 07102W 6912 03019 9756 +150 +094 020019 021 023 001 00
144030 2034N 07104W 6920 03017 9756 +154 +096 020029 031 033 000 00
144100 2035N 07105W 6912 03031 9752 +163 +085 015035 039 040 000 03
144130 2037N 07106W 6916 03032 9758 +165 +079 016046 051 050 000 03
144200 2038N 07107W 6914 03042 9772 +160 +084 016053 054 065 002 03
144230 2039N 07108W 6917 03044 9782 +157 +090 020057 058 070 003 00
144300 2040N 07110W 6916 03060 9808 +144 +095 027061 062 074 004 00
144330 2041N 07111W 6917 03073 9841 +112 +110 031063 065 075 007 01
144400 2042N 07112W 6932 03062 9857 +101 +087 026064 068 075 017 05
144430 2043N 07113W 6908 03098 9852 +130 +082 027063 063 074 018 00
144500 2044N 07114W 6914 03091 9847 +138 +074 035063 063 069 018 00
144530 2046N 07115W 6914 03095 9859 +136 +069 039064 065 067 005 00
144600 2047N 07117W 6912 03105 9871 +131 +068 043061 064 065 005 03
144630 2048N 07118W 6912 03110 9880 +128 +070 048060 062 062 001 00
144700 2050N 07119W 6917 03110 9904 +114 +081 052062 063 059 002 00
144730 2051N 07121W 6916 03119 9916 +108 +092 052060 061 056 005 00
144800 2052N 07122W 6913 03129 9930 +102 +098 051058 059 055 002 00
144830 2053N 07123W 6918 03131 9947 +095 //// 047055 056 054 000 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Pressure virtually unchanged from last night.

The lowest,9752.

[ColinDelia]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

[CrazyC83]

Based on latest Recon data, I would nudge the intensity down to 75 kt, it was probably 80 kt at 0600Z as well (85 kt at 0000Z). Storm getting larger as well.

[tailgater]

The 976 was extrapolated from 700 mb, not from a drop yet.

Really, Irene looks the same as it did last night, T4.5, so that shouldn't be shocking.

I stand corrected, looks like a heading of @ 290degrees still.

[gatorcane]

yep eye clearing out.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

looks to be moving a little more westerly this morning ..
280 maybe ..

Yeah I see about 280 degree movement over the past couple of hours. Probably just going to stair-step and gradually start the curvature...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Nimbus]

Eye or no eye, Irene isn't that impressive to me this morning. I still see lots of arc clouds on the western side of the circulation. I see evidence of shear as well.

considering the extent to which hispaniola is likely disrupting inflow, I'd say she's holding her own pretty well.

her strength is one thing.. but it could keep her moving more west or wobble wsw ish for a little while till she gets free

The circulation seems to have an easier time going south through the Windward Passage than it does coming north over the mountains of Hispaniola And that eye is going to need an EWRC once it steps back up over Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

looks south of the NHC 8am position

looks right on the $ to me, but of course im not positive of center location.

[cycloneye]

[bahamaswx]

She's looking pretty beat up in the last couple of frames. SW quadrant eroding.