ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[hipshot]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

I am sure glad someone thinks the same thing. You are right, cat3 and 4 and even cat 2 to some degree are very hard to distinguish from each other. I vote for a color change!

[artist]

[sandyb]

folks in eastern nc if you need stuff get out now and get it

[RL3AO]

3-hrly fixes start Thursday morning.

[eastcoastFL]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

I am sure glad someone thinks the same thing. You are right, cat3 and 4 and even cat 2 to some degree are very hard to distinguish from each other. I vote for a color change!

Me 3

[ConvergenceZone]

FOX13WEATHER...(MET)…If this stays offshore (which you very well said it could do yesterday), I owe you kudos bigtime!!! That would have been a great call on your part!!!!! I’m thinking though that even if the NHC thinks it will stay offshore, I still think they might error on caution and not shift the track offshore yet, because That would be a risky move on their part.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231449
XXAA 73157 99205 70707 08000 99987 26209 12561 00613 ///// /////
92574 22403 15581 85310 19604 17068 70966 12612 19068 88999 77999
31313 09608 81434
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2059N07075W 1439 MBL WND 15076 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 17071 987692 WL150 14070 083 REL 2050N07073W 143443 SPG 205
9N07075W 143911 =
XXBB 73158 99205 70707 08000 00987 26209 11955 23403 22850 19604
33732 13208 44709 13815 55692 11409
21212 00987 12561 11982 14070 22965 14579 33959 15077 44928 15581
55916 16071 66850 17068 77716 18577 88692 19063
31313 09608 81434
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2059N07075W 1439 MBL WND 15076 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 17071 987692 WL150 14070 083 REL 2050N07073W 143443 SPG 205
9N07075W 143911 =


Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.5N 70.7W
Location: 72 miles (116 km) to the SSE (157°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,310m (4,298 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
700mb 2,966m (9,731 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F) 190° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center (it is possible this value is in radians and that our site decoded it wrong).

Splash Location: 20.59N 70.75W
Splash Time: 14:39Z

Release Location: 20.5N 70.73W
Release Time: 14:34:43Z

Splash Location: 20.59N 70.75W
Splash Time: 14:39:11Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 71 knots (82 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 692mb to 987mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 70 knots (81 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
987mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F)
955mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F)
850mb 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F)
732mb 13.2°C (55.8°F) 12.4°C (54.3°F)
709mb 13.8°C (56.8°F) 12.3°C (54.1°F)
692mb 11.4°C (52.5°F) 10.5°C (50.9°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (Surface) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
982mb 140° (from the SE) 70 knots (81 mph)
965mb 145° (from the SE) 79 knots (91 mph)
959mb 150° (from the SSE) 77 knots (89 mph)
928mb 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
916mb 160° (from the SSE) 71 knots (82 mph)
850mb 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
716mb 185° (from the S) 77 knots (89 mph)
692mb 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

[chris_fit]

looks south of the NHC 8am position

looks right on the $ to me, but of course im not positive of center location.

It is a little South, not a big deal though, yet.

The 11pm coordinate as of 5am was 21.4N 72.4W Lets see if she stay south of that. Basically a little due S of West Caicos Islands.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/145015W5_NL_sm.gif

hmmm better start turning now of that going to verify.. lol

[Chacor]

The 11 am wind speed product shows a 14% cumulative probability of 34-knot (TS force) winds in New York City by Saturday; that increases to 23% for D.C. and 43% for Norfolk, VA.

[eastcoastFL]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/145015W5_NL_sm.gif

hmmm better start turning now of that going to verify.. lol

No kidding. Thats a pretty sharp NW turn based on its current heading.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With visible satellite, very transparent IR satellite, some previous vortex messages, just released 11AM EDT track, 5AM EDT track and 11PM EDT track.

Satellite imagery as of 10:15AM EDT.

[CronkPSU]

forecaster Brown? are they new?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231459
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 13 20110823
144900 2055N 07125W 6913 03139 9951 +096 //// 047053 055 052 001 01
144930 2056N 07126W 6914 03144 9956 +097 +094 046050 051 052 001 00
145000 2057N 07127W 6916 03145 9962 +094 //// 046050 053 051 002 01
145030 2058N 07128W 6912 03157 9971 +093 //// 054052 053 050 004 01
145100 2100N 07130W 6917 03152 9974 +095 //// 056050 051 048 001 01
145130 2101N 07131W 6917 03158 9980 +091 //// 059047 049 047 002 01
145200 2102N 07133W 6914 03162 9988 +087 //// 054045 046 047 001 01
145230 2104N 07134W 6914 03166 9987 +092 +090 048043 044 046 000 00
145300 2105N 07135W 6911 03169 9977 +102 +070 054047 048 044 000 00
145330 2106N 07137W 6912 03172 9981 +102 +058 055050 053 043 000 03
145400 2108N 07138W 6917 03165 9989 +099 +054 056050 050 042 002 03
145430 2109N 07139W 6914 03174 9989 +100 +053 056047 048 040 000 03
145500 2110N 07141W 6914 03173 9992 +100 +052 055046 046 041 000 03
145530 2112N 07142W 6914 03175 9997 +095 +054 058045 045 042 000 03
145600 2113N 07143W 6916 03174 0003 +095 +056 058044 044 039 000 03
145630 2114N 07145W 6914 03181 0007 +090 +059 058043 043 038 000 00
145700 2116N 07146W 6912 03184 0014 +089 +061 057042 043 038 000 03
145730 2117N 07147W 6916 03182 0016 +089 +061 054041 041 038 000 00
145800 2118N 07149W 6915 03181 0019 +085 +067 056043 043 038 000 03
145830 2120N 07150W 6917 03182 0029 +077 //// 058043 044 038 000 05
$$
;

[Chacor]

Daniel Brown has worked at the NHC with the hurricane unit since at least 2008, and he's now a senior specialist.

[artist]

[hurricaneCW]

I thought Irene was supposed to be in a light shear environment, all of the sudden there's 10-20 knots of shear that's not going away. Hispaniola is probably disrupting Irene's strength as well because she's not looking too hot despite trying to pop out an eye.

[CronkPSU]

Daniel Brown has worked at the NHC with the hurricane unit since at least 2008, and he's now a senior specialist.

thanks!

[tolakram]

I thought Irene was supposed to be in a light shear environment, all of the sudden there's 10-20 knots of shear that's not going away. Hispaniola is probably disrupting Irene's strength as well because she's not looking too hot despite trying to pop out an eye.

You forget that shear forecasts are almost always wrong. I only say almost because always is hard to prove.

[chris_fit]

To get to the 11am 12H forecast point (21.3N 72.3W @ 90 KT) - She would have to go between 300-310, starting right now.