ATL: IRENE - Models

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Mouton
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#4281 Postby Mouton » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:58 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:i'm kinda getting excited being in Long Island... 8-) but yes, kinda worried as well; already informed my parents about the possibility of a Hurricane in 5-6 days' time... :eek:


You might want to seek out stories of the Great 1938 New England Hurricane...it came on a different trajectory but it was devastating. My father in law chats about that every once in a while. Without the warning systems they have now, he says he recalls in Providence he noticed it was getting pretty windy!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4282 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:00 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Your comment was warranted and fine. I'm sure your family didn't take offense and knows you are concerned about them.

appreciate that Lad
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#4283 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:02 am

This thread is for model runs and model discussion. Please keep all other discussion in the regular Irene thread.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4284 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:02 am

Here comes the Canadian.

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#4285 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:02 am

00Z HWRF at 54 hours:

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#4286 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:09 am

It looks like the 00Z HWRF is east of the 18Z run. I think we've found our consensus.
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#4287 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:12 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:It looks like the 00Z HWRF is east of the 18Z run. I think we've found our consensus.


Agreed. Barring some freak EURO west shift, I think SFL can finally breathe relief, at least of a direct strike.
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#4288 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:29 am

Yep, though Carolinas are still in danger...Hopefully the High Pressure will shift just a bit further east, which is all it would take to send Irene out to sea....
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#4289 Postby HugoCameandLeft » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:30 am

HWRF at 114 hours:

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#4290 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:34 am

Basedon these models, I think big shifts to the NHC cone will be coming at 5am. South Florida out of the cone, with more emphasis placed on the east coast.
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#4291 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:46 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Basedon these models, I think big shifts to the NHC cone will be coming at 5am. South Florida out of the cone, with more emphasis placed on the east coast.


Based on the latest model runs with the G-IV data. I agree with more emphasis placed on the east coast ... however with a storm this size 50-100 miles of the coast of FL that's still +48 from being at the same Latitude as Miami it would be irresponsible not to at least leave the East Coast of FL in the cone from Miami northward..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4292 Postby Battlebrick » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:57 am

anybody got the euro?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4293 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:57 am

Euro hath started
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4294 Postby jpigott » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:58 am

Has the GDFL already run?
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#4295 Postby NateFLA » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:59 am

Check out the 00Z GFS run at 160 hours:

Image

NYC getting hammered. Accuracy at +160 is suspect, but still :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4296 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:09 am

jpigott wrote:Has the GDFL already run?


Yes according to our very own Mark Sudduth (hurricanetrack) via twitter,

Both the new HWRF and GFDL models show a remarkably similar track for Irene at five days. Very close to the South Carolina coast- near CHS.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4297 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:11 am

Looks like the new 0z Euro

+24

Image
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#4298 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:12 am

+48

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#4299 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:14 am

+72 Euro .....gets moving fast

Image
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#4300 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:22 am

Is the GFS developing the other wave off of Africa?
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