ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231549
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 18 20110823
153900 2035N 07152W 6914 03166 9990 +091 +090 008034 034 040 001 00
153930 2035N 07150W 6918 03160 9985 +092 //// 009035 036 040 001 05
154000 2035N 07149W 6918 03160 9982 +095 +094 010038 040 041 000 03
154030 2035N 07147W 6913 03166 9980 +088 //// 011045 048 042 003 05
154100 2035N 07145W 6911 03163 9974 +094 //// 014048 049 043 002 01
154130 2035N 07143W 6912 03156 9973 +093 //// 015044 045 046 003 05
154200 2035N 07141W 6908 03160 9967 +088 //// 011046 048 047 008 01
154230 2035N 07140W 6919 03138 //// +086 //// 007046 047 049 010 01
154300 2035N 07138W 6909 03146 //// +084 //// 011046 047 048 011 01
154330 2036N 07136W 6916 03131 //// +085 //// 006047 048 046 005 01
154400 2036N 07134W 6913 03133 9931 +104 +103 004048 048 049 002 03
154430 2036N 07132W 6912 03127 9929 +102 +097 005047 047 049 001 00
154500 2036N 07131W 6912 03121 9925 +092 //// 003046 047 050 002 01
154530 2036N 07129W 6910 03118 9906 +109 +088 360048 049 049 001 00
154600 2036N 07127W 6917 03102 9896 +110 +094 358050 050 050 000 03
154630 2036N 07125W 6912 03097 9883 +113 +099 354049 049 053 000 03
154700 2036N 07123W 6916 03088 9862 +124 +095 352052 055 058 000 03
154730 2036N 07121W 6918 03073 9842 +131 +094 354058 058 058 000 03
154800 2036N 07119W 6920 03060 9836 +127 +097 357054 058 059 001 03
154830 2036N 07117W 6902 03070 9820 +130 +094 356050 050 058 000 03
$$

[KWT]

wow thats alot of recon, people are going to have to be at the top of thier game!

[micktooth]

Also something that is REALLY getting on my nerves already is the idea that this storm wil lbe a fish...

Ummm...given its already hit PR AND going to go through the Bahamas and probably going to hit NC/outer Bank (I'm FAR from convinced this goes out to sea yet) means this is NO fish!

I am absolutely with you. It's already getting West of the proposed "recurve" that the NHC is mapping for, and if it doesn't turn soon, I fail to see how it's going meet the NHC track.

Just look at the trough train coming down the east coast, it's just a matter of time:


This post is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Actually scrap that, looking at the recon the center is actually to the east of where the present 'eye feature' is from the looks of recon....

Going to get another pass soon.

[Dave]

[CW0262]

what i find interesting is the Storm2k graphic map still has S FL in the cone while the NHC doesn't... so on one site i'm in the cone, but on the other im not.. should i watch this? im confused.

In the first place, the cone should not be the determinant as to whether anyone should make preparations for possible impact. The cone is merely a region that defines the 5-year 67th percentile track error. This means that of all the NHC forecasts over the past 5 years (2006-2010), the CENTER of the storms stayed within that cone area 67% of the time.

The cone IS NOT a good indicator of the potential impact area from a hurricane, meaning you're not considered "safe" if you're outside the cone. Even if a hurricane's center tracks right down the middle of the cone, its tropical storm force winds can extend well outside the cone. Same goes for the hurricane winds at times. Your location could be outside the cone and still receive hurricane conditions and a major tidal increase, as was the case with the Louisiana coast with Ike's cone.

So don't judge yourself safe if you're outside the cone. Pay attention to what the local NWS office and the NHC are saying regarding potential impact and make your decisions accordingly.

In your case (Florida), the projected winds are going to be less than tropical storm strength, probably only 20-30 mph along the east coast. So you're going to be fine there as long as Irene behaves.

Very good write up. So very true. How many times have "we waited" for a turn to accur and it happens much later than expected. The more west it travels and or how much of a curve is really the game changer at this point. And you don't need a bulls eye for bad weather to affect your area.

[Aric Dunn]

for sure seems to be on a more westerly track this last 3 hours.

[KWT]

It does look like its been moving somewhat further west Aric, looks like its rounding Hispaniola as you mentioned earlier.

[eastcoastFL]

so what effect does the trough have on the system does it push it east or pull it up north along with it? if it pushes it to the east then shouldn't it just send irene out to sea?

[Dave]

*This is a reminder for people in the cone or near it...remember the cone IS NOT a good indicator of the potential impact area from a hurricane, meaning you're not considered "safe" if you're outside the cone. Even if a hurricane's center tracks right down the middle of the cone, its tropical storm force winds can extend well outside the cone. Same goes for the hurricane winds at times. Your location could be outside the cone and still receive hurricane conditions and a major tidal increase, as was the case with the Louisiana coast with Ike's cone.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231559
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 19 20110823
154900 2036N 07115W 6921 03037 9785 +149 +095 355047 048 050 002 03
154930 2036N 07113W 6914 03032 9774 +146 +107 350037 042 038 000 03
155000 2036N 07111W 6918 03019 9763 +148 +097 357027 030 033 000 00
155030 2036N 07109W 6916 03012 9752 +150 +095 009018 023 028 000 00
155100 2035N 07108W 6909 03018 9748 +151 +099 359009 010 022 001 03
155130 2035N 07106W 6916 03009 9751 +148 +098 079008 011 024 000 03
155200 2035N 07104W 6913 03009 9750 +145 +099 126012 015 024 000 00
155230 2036N 07102W 6913 03011 9754 +143 +098 140018 018 033 001 03
155300 2036N 07100W 6916 03013 9766 +135 +103 175025 027 035 002 03
155330 2036N 07058W 6914 03022 9784 +129 +110 171029 035 /// /// 03
155400 2034N 07058W 6923 03018 9797 +118 //// 166034 037 /// /// 05
155430 2034N 07100W 6914 03016 9774 +128 +118 185026 030 026 000 03
155500 2035N 07102W 6916 03010 9761 +135 +111 173015 020 030 000 00
155530 2035N 07104W 6912 03013 9764 +135 +104 135009 011 026 000 03
155600 2035N 07106W 6915 03013 9757 +143 +099 048006 011 023 000 03
155630 2034N 07107W 6914 03014 9762 +140 +104 009014 016 023 001 03
155700 2034N 07109W 6908 03025 9760 +147 +096 021021 024 /// /// 03
155730 2036N 07109W 6920 03011 9750 +155 +092 024020 023 /// /// 03
155800 2036N 07107W 6916 03009 9744 +152 +098 063011 015 024 000 00
155830 2036N 07105W 6912 03014 9754 +144 +101 119012 014 025 000 00
$$

[eastcoastFL]

is the thick cloud cover over palm beach county associated with irene?

[Crackbone]

Also something that is REALLY getting on my nerves already is the idea that this storm wil lbe a fish...

Ummm...given its already hit PR AND going to go through the Bahamas and probably going to hit NC/outer Bank (I'm FAR from convinced this goes out to sea yet) means this is NO fish!

I am absolutely with you. It's already getting West of the proposed "recurve" that the NHC is mapping for, and if it doesn't turn soon, I fail to see how it's going meet the NHC track.

Just look at the trough train coming down the east coast, it's just a matter of time:


This post is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm definitely aware that a turn will occur. However, where the turn starts has the possibility of changing the track. If she stays W for longer than anticipated, it could cause some problems, especially for the many here that are proclaiming they are "safe."


This is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StarmanHDB]

Looks like her eye is opening.

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure found at second pass

Code: Select all

9744

[Battlebrick]

Dropsonde says 978 mb.. down 2mb, strengthening?

[KWT]

Latest pass got about 975mbs, so its probably starting to strengthening, lowest pressure looks like it wass right in the weaker cloud cover, suggesting that is indeed the true eye.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231605
XXAA 73167 99206 70711 08001 99978 27219 16009 00696 ///// /////
92495 24211 18511 85236 21013 19003 70911 16450 02007 88999 77999
31313 09608 81556
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2058N07110W 1559 MBL WND 17509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
502 977692 WL150 16509 083 REL 2058N07110W 155603 SPG 2058N07110W
155910 =
XXBB 73168 99206 70711 08001 00978 27219 11850 21013 22810 19011
33750 19857 44706 17456 55692 15050
21212 00978 16009 11915 19012 22850 19003 33692 02508
31313 09608 81556
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2058N07110W 1559 MBL WND 17509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
502 977692 WL150 16509 083 REL 2058N07110W 155603 SPG 2058N07110W
155910 =
;

[Aric Dunn]

im really beginning to wonder if this ridge dropping south over NC/SC is going to have an affect.. because look at the flow of the complex of thunderstorms heading towards florida. should be going the other direction.. that little ridge is pushing sw as it drop south .. that is what the NAM saw happening yesterday. but not at the 00z run.