WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[euro6208]

Based on all available data, I believe Songda is now a Super Typhoon with winds of 135 knots. Songda is becoming more and more severely underestimated. Would be fun if we had recon fly into this storm right now!

25/2032 UTC 14.4N 126.8E T6.5/6.5 SONGDA -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 927.9mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.9 6.9

[alan1961]

Wouldn't say thats weakening at all

[Infdidoll]

What a difference a night makes...went to bed last night said cat 3 possibly here now it says cat 2 wit hwinds of 100mph gusting to 120...guess we still have to watch see what it does.

Yeah, I saw that on Weather Underground's graphic. Weakening from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2 before it even hits us, but JTWC's coordinates put it weakening at 72 hrs out at 26.8N 128.2E which is the northern tip of Okinawa, where the water temperatures really start cooling down rapidly. I'd still prepare for the worst. Looks like it could be the biggest one since Man-Yi (2007). That seems to be the one everyone is still talking about here.

Infidoll - i was just looking at Man-Yi last night -- wiki has a good graphic of that summer season of storms - went up the west coast. I'm thinking the ginormous pine outside my house was there then, and is still here now...so other than that thing falling on my house, I think I'm not too worried; just got to get my $hit cleaned up outside (times when you miss having a man around the house!) -- so now it's looking like up the eastern shore, but also like Okinawa is going to drop it from cat 4 to cat 2...I just want to keep power....I can live with the rest of it....LOL!

LOL...There is a really funny video of a young Marine on YouTube during Man-Yi. Cracked me up! Let me know if you need any help moving anything. I have a rent-a-husband, too, if it's a job too big for woman muscles of steel. He just came home from deployment not long ago, thank God...He can help me lug in our outdoor furniture, but he got stuck with duty Saturday so looks like he gets to babysit all the bored Marines in the barracks and make sure they don't do anything incredibly stupid during the typhoon. Sucks to be him.

[Infdidoll]

very impressive

WOW! Amazing structure, right now! I shouldn't be geeking out over this storm being that it's headed this way, but you have to admit it's a dangerous beauty. Extremely beautiful, hot, sunny day here...hard to believe all that mess could be just days away if it stays on course.

[Macrocane]

I agree it's dangerously beautiful ! very very strong convection, great outflow and a very symmetric and clear eye are signs that tell us that Songda is already a cat 4 (in Saffir Simpson Scale) typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

That eye is just so impressive. But it could just spell more harm along its way, so take extra care guys especially for those in Okinawa where it seems that the eye will pass directly.


For our friends in Okinawa, can somebody be able to film the eye's passage in there?

[HURAKAN]

textbook-looking

[oaba09]

I agree it's dangerously beautiful ! very very strong convection, great outflow and a very symmetric and clear eye are signs that tell us that Songda is already a cat 4 (in Saffir Simpson Scale) typhoon.

I hope that those in the path will be prepared....

To those in japan, be safe guys!

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

TY 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 26 May 2011
<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50'(17.8°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area

[HURAKAN]

5 -day track forecast:

ZCZC 266
WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 14.7N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 17.8N 124.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280000UTC 21.7N 124.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 290000UTC 27.2N 129.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 300000UTC 31.0N 136.0E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
120HF 310000UTC 32.7N 143.9E 500NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 923.4mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.6 6.6

[Infdidoll]

That eye is just so impressive. But it could just spell more harm along its way, so take extra care guys especially for those in Okinawa where it seems that the eye will pass directly.


For our friends in Okinawa, can somebody be able to film the eye's passage in there?

I've got a nice little HD camera...but the problem when these storms come through is that our house turns into a wind tunnel if we so much as open a door or window and the glass becomes such a mess you can hardly see out of it - really have to judge the direction of the wind before you can open a door during one of these storms in my building...However, if we get the eye directly, I might step out for a few and film or find a clean window to film from!

[HURAKAN]

latest

[dexterlabio]

I've got a nice little HD camera...but the problem when these storms come through is that our house turns into a wind tunnel if we so much as open a door or window and the glass becomes such a mess you can hardly see out of it - really have to judge the direction of the wind before you can open a door during one of these storms in my building...However, if we get the eye directly, I might step out for a few and film or find a clean window to film from!

Thank you, Infdidoll! Though I could be requesting too much.
I had an experience when Xangxane in 2006 came in the metro and I tried to open the window to film the event on cam but my window pane was sucked out along with my bedroom stuff. So just be extra careful when filming it.


I only have seen a few videos on the eye's passage, like the place being calm and clear when the eye's right above it. Well the forecast tracks show the eye passing right there so maybe yours is the right place to film.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 29.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 33.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 35.3N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 126.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z
AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

No way this system is 115 knots, sorry JTWC, but there's no way!



Latest

[Typhoon Hunter]

I had an experience when Xangxane in 2006 came in the metro and I tried to open the window to film the event on cam but my window pane was sucked out along with my bedroom stuff. So just be extra careful when filming it.

That's a great story Dexter - Xangsane was a real beast. It's a bit like opening the car door in an eyewall, never do it with the wind behind you otherwise the door might fly off

Have to agree with Hurakan that this looks good deal stronger than 115kts.

[euro6208]

I am actually shocked that JTWC didn't raised the intensity. Just staring at Songda, this is already a Category 5 Super Typhoon. I would place Songda's intensity at 145 knots sustained! Recon we need you!!!

[HURAKAN]

My estimate is around 130-140 kts