ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the Visible Satellite pics, IMO I doubt that she is truly stationary, as the whole system still appears to be moving generally westward, think its more of a center reformation/reorganization.
TG

It's also pretty apparent on mimic that the center is reforming as well. Not to keep bringing it up, but it's pretty obvious.

[jonj2040]

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[northjaxpro]

To be honest so much of the five-day forecast depends on how Emily interacts with Hispaniola and in what shape she emerges from that landfall. She could easily die from that trek as suggested by some of the global models. Very complicated forecast.

Yep. This will be critical as is often the case when tropical cyclones migrate near Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

my area forecast .... lol

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-80.6002

and miami
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... eld2=-80.2

[cycloneye]

Lol..this storm is too much!

I put it as a very weird one.

[KWT]

perhaps center reformations are making it difficult to ascertain a forward motion. last night's speed may have been overestimated and now it may be underestimated. tough to imagine it has really stalled with the high just to the north...center lurching is probably giving the appearance of a brief stop.

Yep thats what I think as well, relocations always cause forecasters headaches!

[Dave C]

Seems a couple of small banding features formong on north and south sides of the covection.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, look at the end of those runs. Such a sharp curve to the right is surely unrealistic.

[img]https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif[/mg]

last time I saw models do that .... the next set had a complete loop and the name was jeanne.

only real question I have is how are the models going to respond to the stalled motion today. because come the 00z the position should be farther west and north than the previous runs... so does it mean the trough is going to have more to to pull out or does it mean the ridge will weaken before she makes it far enough west. just have to wait.. once she starts moving I imagine it will be a good clip to the west again... still fairly strong ridiging in all level north of her till about DR then it weakens ..

[Riptide]

Aric, look at the end of those runs. Such a sharp curve to the right is surely unrealistic.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

If it waits too long, Emily may just perform a cyclonic loop after reaching Florida and move back west or get pushed out again.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Mouton]

From that visual it would seem that it would stay off the south fla coast. But then again is the high become strong enough to force it back due west?

Ala Frances 04 or Dora 64 is very possible.

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

funny the NHC did not change the position from 8am

[SouthFloridawx]

That's what I was thinking too. Watching the models the last couple days reminded me of Jeanne. Not totally as obviously conditions couldn't possibly be the same.

[Nimbus]

In the last frame of the Nam the 594 line is retreating west. Looks like Emily turns up into the ridge at the 588 line like a sailboat turning up into the wind. Then she stalls over the Bahamas her outflow pumping up the ridge as she intensifies. When these systems stall and strengthen an anticyclone high often centers over them. Then as they start moving north their own anticyclone steers them east.

That's just the current NAM scenario, A stronger ridge to the north and they drift west like Andrew did in 92.

[SFLcane]

my area forecast .... lol

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-80.6002

and miami
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... eld2=-80.2

Right now i think if the center were to track along the lines of the latest GFDL/HWRF current tpc track sfl wouldn't see much but some breezy showers as all the nasty weather would stay offshore.

[JPmia]

these model forecasts are not worth much since every time they run them the storm does something erratic like becoming stationary

[Ivanhater]

The convective outflow out in front of Emily still has that squished west to east orientation, indicative that she still will be moving almost due west; at least in the short term.

[Aric Dunn]

In the last frame of the Nam the 594 line is retreating west. Looks like Emily turns up into the ridge at the 588 line like a sailboat turning up into the wind. Then she stalls over the Bahamas her outflow pumping up the ridge as she intensifies. When these systems stall and strengthen an anticyclone high often centers over them. Then as they start moving north their own anticyclone steers them east.

That's just the current NAM scenario, A stronger ridge to the north and they drift west like Andrew did in 92.

its a tricky situation for sure.. these progressive LA NINA patterns are very difficult to pin down tracks when everything is changing so fast..

[Evil Jeremy]

my area forecast .... lol

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-80.6002

and miami
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... eld2=-80.2

Right now i think if the center were to track along the lines of the latest GFDL/HWRF current tpc track sfl wouldn't see much but some breezy showers as all the nasty weather would stay offshore.

Yes, but right now, it is very uncertain where Emily will go. Too many variables. Hell, if we do get a center relocation to the south, that already goes against the new NHC cone!

[SouthFloridawx]

Poor recon...