ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

BTW, those sea breeze storms over Melbourne and vicinity were formed on outflow boundaries that ejected southwestward from the offshore thunderstorm cluster off of GA and north FL. You can see it clearly on the visible. Now back to topic...

again that complex was actually moving sw earlier today as the trough lifted out and some ridging built back in pushing them back wsw or sw you can see it in the water vapor http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

actually watching the development of the ridging over NC VA and SC the NAM yesterday had that hanging around longer. and the trough flattening out more.. which would allow more ridging to build north of Irene

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231859
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 37 20110823
184900 2000N 07011W 6912 03177 0009 +082 //// 219040 041 040 000 01
184930 1959N 07009W 6913 03176 0010 +081 //// 219036 039 041 001 01
185000 1958N 07007W 6916 03171 0010 +082 //// 216035 035 041 000 05
185030 1958N 07006W 6916 03174 0010 +084 //// 215035 036 041 001 01
185100 1957N 07004W 6917 03173 0012 +075 //// 216033 034 041 002 05
185130 1956N 07002W 6912 03180 0019 +078 //// 217036 037 041 001 01
185200 1955N 07001W 6917 03177 0018 +081 //// 217037 037 041 000 05
185230 1954N 06959W 6915 03180 0017 +083 //// 216036 037 042 001 01
185300 1953N 06958W 6913 03184 0023 +078 //// 215034 035 042 003 01
185330 1952N 06956W 6916 03184 0027 +078 //// 213033 033 041 003 01
185400 1951N 06954W 6920 03176 //// +071 //// 208032 033 042 003 01
185430 1950N 06953W 6913 03186 0024 +077 //// 204032 033 043 002 01
185500 1949N 06951W 6916 03182 //// +072 //// 206031 033 042 003 01
185530 1948N 06950W 6920 03175 //// +066 //// 202030 031 041 003 01
185600 1947N 06948W 6911 03186 //// +065 //// 195030 030 040 003 01
185630 1946N 06947W 6920 03178 0036 +073 //// 195030 031 040 001 01
185700 1945N 06945W 6912 03193 0025 +084 +081 191031 032 040 001 00
185730 1945N 06944W 6915 03186 0025 +085 +071 193033 035 040 001 00
185800 1944N 06942W 6916 03187 0021 +089 +066 194036 036 038 000 03
185830 1943N 06941W 6914 03190 0025 +085 +066 197036 037 039 000 00

[boxwes]

She was at 20.5N, 71W at 11am. Last VDM has her at 20.44N, 71.14W. She put the brakes on.

[bexar]

seems like Irene is not increasing in wind speeds? probably held at 85 KT at 5PM? or lowered to 80 KT?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigA]

She was at 20.5N, 71W at 11am. Last VDM has her at 20.44N, 71.14W. She put the brakes on.

Those are degrees and minutes, not decimal points in the VDM, so it's a bit farther north and west than that. Close to 20.75, 71.24

[clfenwi]

URNT11 KNHC 231902
97779 18584 30197 69700 31100 20036 08079 /3089
41440
RMK AF302 0809A IRENE OB 25
SWS = 38 KTS
SE OUTBOUND


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 25

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 18:58Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.7N 69.7W
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,110 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 200° at 36 knots (From the SSW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 8°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 7°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,089 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 140° at 40 knots (From the SE at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 38 knots (~ 43.7mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

[Aric Dunn]

She was at 20.5N, 71W at 11am. Last VDM has her at 20.44N, 71.14W. She put the brakes on.

the last 2 VDM were basically on top of each other. steering has become quite weak with the trough lifting out faster.

[RL3AO]

18z forecast from 5am advisory 20.9N 71.5W

Actual 18z postion 20.7N 71.2W

[Meteorcane]

seems like Irene is not increasing in wind speeds? probably held at 85 KT at 5PM? or lowered to 80 KT?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Probably does not actually have 85 kt wind speeds atm, but since the pressure is slightly decreasing I don't know if they will change it, considering they will probably pick up in due time.

[jhpigott]

She was at 20.5N, 71W at 11am. Last VDM has her at 20.44N, 71.14W. She put the brakes on.

the last 2 VDM were basically on top of each other. steering has become quite weak with the trough lifting out faster.

Stall or turn??

[CronkPSU]

BTW, those sea breeze storms over Melbourne and vicinity were formed on outflow boundaries that ejected southwestward from the offshore thunderstorm cluster off of GA and north FL. You can see it clearly on the visible. Now back to topic...

again that complex was actually moving sw earlier today as the trough lifted out and some ridging built back in pushing them back wsw or sw you can see it in the water vapor http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

actually watching the development of the ridging over NC VA and SC the NAM yesterday had that hanging around longer. and the trough flattening out more.. which would allow more ridging to build north of Irene

i don't recall ever hearing about that big blob of thunderstorms developing over the past 3 days, is it something that could pull irene north quicker? radar is lit up like a christmas tree now and dark and stormy all over the Orlando area...like i said earlier, storms coming from the east while the front is coming in from the North and East is very strange...all the forecasters talked about the small front coming through from the north

[sunnyday]

So, what happens if she stalls and the trough moves out quicker? Could she miss it--if so, then what?

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231909
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 38 20110823
185900 1942N 06939W 6907 03199 0025 +086 +061 198036 037 039 001 00
185930 1941N 06937W 6769 03375 0032 +075 +057 196035 036 038 000 03
190000 1940N 06936W 6544 03658 0032 +059 //// 198036 038 037 000 05
190030 1938N 06935W 6326 03934 0026 +047 +044 198038 039 037 000 00
190100 1937N 06933W 6135 04187 0026 +034 +028 203039 040 038 000 03
190130 1935N 06932W 5953 04396 0003 +019 +009 206040 040 039 000 03
190200 1933N 06931W 5779 04646 0000 +004 -029 210042 043 039 000 00
190230 1932N 06930W 5621 04865 9992 -000 -073 213043 043 039 001 00
190300 1930N 06928W 5467 05099 0193 -009 -029 217040 041 037 000 03
190330 1929N 06927W 5331 05300 0204 -026 -039 217041 041 036 001 00
190400 1927N 06926W 5196 05503 0217 -033 -050 217040 041 036 001 00
190430 1926N 06925W 5065 05703 0230 -038 -065 219038 039 036 000 00
190500 1924N 06923W 4959 05877 0242 -050 -073 217037 039 031 001 03
190530 1923N 06922W 4854 06046 0255 -058 -085 216036 038 024 000 03
190600 1922N 06919W 4744 06227 0267 -072 -100 220033 034 026 000 03
190630 1921N 06917W 4641 06397 0279 -078 -112 225031 033 /// /// 03
190700 1920N 06915W 4535 06584 0297 -090 -125 227031 032 /// /// 03
190730 1919N 06913W 4439 06757 0315 -099 -138 236031 032 /// /// 03
190800 1918N 06911W 4340 06930 0325 -109 -150 243026 028 123 020 03
190830 1917N 06908W 4251 07088 0335 -118 -170 247028 030 029 000 03

[mutley]

She was at 20.5N, 71W at 11am. Last VDM has her at 20.44N, 71.14W. She put the brakes on.

Yes, but I wonder if it's because the turn is or will be starting soon, or because she doesn't feel the weakness and wants to muddle on westward a little more? On visible, it sure looks like mostly westward, but very slowly.

[Blown Away]

Aric,
How many miles closer was the 12z GFS run to WPB compared to the 06z run?

[canes04]

she basically has stalled today. Still wondering what implications this will have on the track.

[Nimbus]

The eye is clearing out and expanding. Notice the stadium effect in the western eyewall? She is getting closer to the windward passage now and pulling farther away from the north coast of Hispaniola. CDO is wrapping tightly around the southern semicircle. Could be a Cat 3 by 11PM.

The slowdown in forward speed is probably temporary but it will be interesting to see what effect that has on the model runs. Once the first trough lifts out there may be some ridging before the strongest steering trough can pull Irene north.

[clfenwi]

Flight headed home. Next scheduled mission launches in 2-1/2 hours, per POD.

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71

A. 24/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 1109A IRENE
C. 23/2145Z
D. 21.2N 73.2W
E. 23/2330Z TO 24/06Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

So, what happens if she stalls and the trough moves out quicker? Could she miss it--if so, then what?

pretty sure the reason she has slowed and now maybe stalled is that the trough is lifting out much faster than forecast leaving a very weak steering behind. It is unclear what willl happen over the next few hours. if the steering has weakened then the trough and short wave will both miss it and she may just begin to drift north slowly into the weakness till something comes to pick it up ..

[bexar]

Irene is still not building impressive convection on the southern part