ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

Is recon is on their way home?

[jonj2040]

32


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[Aric Dunn]

The convective outflow out in front of Emily still has that squished west to east orientation, indicative that she still will be moving almost due west; at least in the short term.

[img]http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_08_2011/post-455-0-76993100-1312295373.gif[/img

yep low level up through almost 200mb is due west still and holding... question is does the trough get enough energy coming down the pipe to dig farther south or where its at now as far as its going to get... as the NAM and a couple other models suggest.

[KWT]

The NAM is interesting but alas as others have said when you've got a system that for the time being has almost stalled and undergoing multiple relocations.

Lets see where the *better* models go today and lets see whether they have a decent grip on the motion at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Poor recon...

[img]http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/3373/8211117am.png[img]

yeah they are seriously probably not having fun.. lol

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nimbus,

I don't like to hear that A word. I know they are two different animlas but the thought of it getting stuck near the Bahamas and then coming west again is possible.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021514
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 32 20110802
150430 1515N 06356W 9765 00281 //// +226 //// 202005 007 /// /// 05
150500 1515N 06358W 9772 00275 //// +228 //// 189003 004 /// /// 05
150530 1516N 06359W 9770 00276 //// +238 //// 179001 002 /// /// 05
150600 1516N 06359W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 116001 002 /// /// 05
150630 1517N 06402W 9772 00274 //// +240 //// 120003 003 /// /// 05
150700 1518N 06404W 9776 00270 //// +240 //// 140004 005 /// /// 05
150730 1519N 06405W 9768 00278 //// +240 //// 147006 006 /// /// 05
150800 1520N 06406W 9769 00275 //// +236 //// 138006 007 /// /// 05
150830 1521N 06407W 9774 00272 //// +235 //// 129003 004 /// /// 05
150900 1522N 06408W 9767 00279 //// +240 //// 104005 005 /// /// 05
150930 1524N 06409W 9767 00278 //// +236 //// 099009 009 /// /// 05
151000 1525N 06410W 9781 00266 //// +231 //// 079007 008 /// /// 05
151030 1526N 06411W 9762 00282 //// +238 //// 092006 007 /// /// 05
151100 1527N 06412W 9770 00274 //// +235 //// 089005 007 /// /// 05
151130 1528N 06414W 9774 00271 //// +233 //// 071009 010 /// /// 05
151200 1529N 06415W 9767 00277 //// +240 //// 071010 011 /// /// 05
151230 1531N 06416W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 079010 010 /// /// 05
151300 1532N 06417W 9774 00271 //// +240 //// 081010 010 /// /// 05
151330 1533N 06418W 9769 00277 //// +240 //// 080011 011 /// /// 05
151400 1534N 06419W 9768 00278 //// +240 //// 078011 011 /// /// 05
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

Heading is about 290 degrees.

[Aric Dunn]

Heading is about 290 degrees.

of emily.. ? cant make that assumption.. the recon fixes are not in a line right now that are bouncing forward backwards south north... lol actually she just made a cyclonic loop according the fixes.

[KWT]

Man the lower levels are a real mess at the moment, system seems to be trying to pinch off multiple centers again, looks like the center recon found may have opened up again looking at the last few recon sets.

[madinina]

Too quite here, no wind, no rain, nothing moove.

[Aric Dunn]

The NAM is interesting but alas as others have said when you've got a system that for the time being has almost stalled and undergoing multiple relocations.

Lets see where the *better* models go today and lets see whether they have a decent grip on the motion at the moment.

Again im not looking at the NAM for the storm motion im looking at the NAM for synoptics...

[Ivanhater]

With what is going on with Emily right now and the journey to follow, I dont think anyone has a clue where she is going.

[KWT]

Heading is about 290 degrees.

of emily.. ? cant make that assumption.. the recon fixes are not in a line right now that are bouncing forward backwards south north... lol actually she just made a cyclonic loop according the fixes.

To be fair the old center pretty much tracked the same heading so its certainly possible that 290 is a good true estimate.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021524
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 33 20110802
151430 1535N 06420W 9774 00272 //// +240 //// 068012 013 /// /// 05
151500 1537N 06421W 9768 00278 //// +240 //// 079012 012 /// /// 05
151530 1538N 06422W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 084012 013 /// /// 05
151600 1539N 06423W 9774 00273 //// +240 //// 085012 012 /// /// 05
151630 1540N 06425W 9767 00279 //// +240 //// 089013 013 /// /// 05
151700 1541N 06426W 9769 00277 //// +240 //// 091013 014 /// /// 05
151730 1543N 06427W 9772 00275 //// +240 //// 092014 014 /// /// 05
151800 1544N 06428W 9769 00276 //// +240 //// 094015 016 /// /// 05
151830 1545N 06429W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 101016 017 /// /// 05
151900 1546N 06430W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 099016 017 /// /// 05
151930 1548N 06431W 9771 00275 //// +240 //// 099016 016 /// /// 05
152000 1549N 06433W 9769 00276 //// +240 //// 097017 018 /// /// 05
152030 1550N 06434W 9772 00274 //// +240 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
152100 1551N 06435W 9774 00271 //// +240 //// 094020 022 /// /// 05
152130 1553N 06436W 9767 00279 //// +240 //// 092023 023 /// /// 05
152200 1554N 06437W 9768 00277 //// +240 //// 092024 025 /// /// 05
152230 1555N 06438W 9774 00273 //// +242 //// 093024 025 /// /// 05
152300 1556N 06439W 9768 00278 //// +240 //// 092026 026 /// /// 05
152330 1558N 06441W 9767 00279 //// +240 //// 092027 028 /// /// 05
152400 1559N 06442W 9771 00275 //// +240 //// 090029 029 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Too quite here, no wind, no rain, nothing moove.

Wanna share with us WHERE you are?

[TheEuropean]

Here are the missing obs No. 30 and 31:
000
URNT15 KNHC 021455
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 30 20110802
144430 1553N 06326W 9771 00282 //// +240 //// 104038 040 /// /// 05
144500 1552N 06327W 9772 00281 //// +240 //// 105038 039 /// /// 05
144530 1551N 06328W 9770 00280 //// +238 //// 103038 040 /// /// 05
144600 1549N 06329W 9770 00281 //// +234 //// 103038 040 /// /// 05
144630 1548N 06331W 9770 00282 //// +222 //// 105038 039 /// /// 05
144700 1547N 06332W 9772 00278 //// +198 //// 106041 043 /// /// 05
144730 1546N 06333W 9764 00285 //// +199 //// 111043 045 /// /// 05
144800 1545N 06334W 9779 00267 //// +193 //// 117041 044 /// /// 05
144830 1543N 06336W 9766 00278 //// +190 //// 118040 042 /// /// 05
144900 1542N 06337W 9762 00282 //// +193 //// 129032 035 /// /// 05
144930 1541N 06338W 9775 00273 //// +201 //// 141028 028 /// /// 05
145000 1540N 06339W 9773 00275 //// +213 //// 150029 031 /// /// 05
145030 1539N 06340W 9773 00274 //// +217 //// 147030 030 /// /// 05
145100 1538N 06341W 9768 00278 //// +225 //// 141027 028 /// /// 05
145130 1537N 06342W 9771 00275 //// +219 //// 138028 029 /// /// 05
145200 1536N 06343W 9768 00279 //// +217 //// 135028 029 /// /// 05
145230 1535N 06344W 9771 00275 //// +218 //// 138025 026 /// /// 05
145300 1534N 06346W 9777 00269 //// +210 //// 131021 024 /// /// 05
145330 1533N 06347W 9775 00269 //// +205 //// 127018 019 /// /// 05
145400 1531N 06348W 9769 00275 //// +209 //// 115017 019 /// /// 05

000
URNT15 KNHC 021504
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 31 20110802
145430 1530N 06349W 9768 00278 //// +212 //// 122020 022 /// /// 05
145500 1529N 06350W 9770 00276 //// +209 //// 123020 021 /// /// 05
145530 1527N 06350W 9771 00275 //// +213 //// 117020 021 /// /// 05
145600 1526N 06351W 9772 00274 //// +214 //// 114019 019 /// /// 05
145630 1525N 06352W 9763 00282 //// +221 //// 119017 019 /// /// 05
145700 1523N 06353W 9772 00274 //// +216 //// 118020 021 /// /// 05
145730 1522N 06353W 9776 00271 //// +235 //// 093008 010 /// /// 05
145800 1520N 06354W 9771 00274 //// +236 //// 042005 006 /// /// 05
145830 1520N 06354W 9771 00274 //// +232 //// 038005 005 /// /// 05
145900 1518N 06355W 9768 00277 //// +230 //// 023004 005 /// /// 05
145930 1516N 06356W 9781 00266 //// +213 //// 323001 004 /// /// 05
150000 1515N 06356W 9760 00285 //// +229 //// 241006 007 /// /// 05
150030 1513N 06357W 9772 00276 //// +222 //// 246007 008 /// /// 05
150100 1512N 06358W 9771 00276 //// +219 //// 247009 010 /// /// 05
150130 1510N 06358W 9768 00280 //// +232 //// 238011 011 /// /// 05
150200 1510N 06356W 9768 00280 //// +237 //// 228011 011 /// /// 05
150230 1510N 06354W 9777 00272 //// +234 //// 225009 010 /// /// 05
150300 1511N 06354W 9767 00279 //// +231 //// 225006 007 /// /// 05
150330 1513N 06354W 9769 00277 //// +233 //// 209005 006 /// /// 05
150400 1514N 06355W 9770 00279 //// +222 //// 193004 007 /// /// 05

[madinina]

Martinique

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow,

And I always watch your post, you always seem to know when and where a storm is going, so if you don't know no one does.

[JPmia]

that trough sure is digging down through Florida.. was it forecasted to dig this far south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html