ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[mutley]

she basically has stalled today. Still wondering what implications this will have on the track.

I'm guessing more nervousness about it.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,
How many miles closer was the 12z GFS run to WPB compared to the 06z run?

not sure exactly but taking a guess. 30 to 40 miles ?

[SootyTern]

Puerto Rico is still getting pelted by the outer bands of Irene.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Any information on total rainfall for PR?

Your question got lost in the excitement over the earthquake. From NWS in San Juan:

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM
AST HAVE RANGED FROM 8.7 INCHES AT RIO BAYAMON AT ARENAS...7.28
INCHES IN GURABO ABAJO AND 4.77 INCHES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN TO .29 INCHES AT SAN GERMAN AND .90 INCHES AT
THE GUAJATACA DAM. THESE LOWER AMOUNTS WILL HAVE INCREASED IN THE
LAST FOUR HOURS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS MOVING INTO THAT AREA WHERE
OVER AN INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 4
TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LARGEST RIVERS NOW IN FLOOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER 24 HOURS...BUT COULD HOLD
EVEN LONGER.

and:
.DISCUSSION...HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND PROVOKING RIVER RISES AND CONTINUED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
EXCEEDED 6 INCHES IN AIBONITO AND THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO IS
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE BELOW LAGO DOS BOCAS. OTHER
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD INCLUDING RIO GRANDE DE MANATI...RIO
CIBUCO...RIO DE LA PLATA AND RIO GURABO. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNINGS
AND FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR A MORE COMPLETE PICTURE. MEDIUM RANGE
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO EACH OF THESE DAYS IN VARIOUS AREAS

[Aric Dunn]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

[sandyb]

sorta off topic for a minute but a little more than a hour ago we felt a eatherquake here in eastern nc, I dont know about yall but I am not wanting a hurricane and a earthquake in the same week!

I just got a call have not looked at models yet but a friend told me most models are pushing more off shore now i know that a question for the model thread but just wanted to thow that out while i was here.
thanks for the new info yall are such good help keep us informed thanks

[wxman57]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

[GTStorm]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

yeah, but how much would it really change...aren't there other stronger short waves expected to make it down to pick Irene up?

[kamqercam]

Based on current forecast what is the max sustained winds we will see in Wilmington NC?

[Aric Dunn]

trough very quickly lifting out.. I dont recall any models stalling her or moving this slow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 3java.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[Lowpressure]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

Agreed 100%, what is your take on the near stall? Much speculation on here as to what happens next.

[Aric Dunn]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

yeah, but how much would it really change...aren't there other stronger short waves expected to make it down to pick Irene up?

if there is they have not developed yet and with the trough lifting out they wont be able to drop too far south .

[bexar]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

I agree, most likely. I don't see why others find Irene currently strenthening?

Her appearance looks ragged and she is under moderate shear and dry air.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sfwx]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

According to the NHC at 2:00 p.m., they don't expect the turn to start until tomorrow...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

[BigA]

trough very quickly lifting out.. I dont recall any models stalling her or moving this slow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 3java.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

If I recall (I was just a little guy then), didn't Bonnie in 1998 do something similar? I remember that most of the models forecasted a miss east of North Carolina, but then Bonnie stalled at around 24N 72W and started moving northwestward, left of the models. Could we have a similar situation here

[Blown Away]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

It does look like it's pretty close to the NHC track, last few frames looked like a NW wobble, probably overall WNW movement.

[Aric Dunn]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

According to the NHC at 2:00 p.m., they don't expect the turn to start until tomorrow...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

There track has a NW motion now. but its not moving NW

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looks like she is slowing and trying to turn to the north, may miss the next forecast point well to the east.

Wouldn't be surprised if these models trend a bit more eastward. Still a chance it could miss the United States entirely but not sure yet.

I still see no threat to Florida at this time.

[Canelaw99]

I have full confidence in the NHC and the models, however....I'm starting to see posts from S2Kers I trust about a stall??/turn??/trough lifting out faster/Irene not being as strong/etc. and I'm just wondering if we could get some pro or close to it to comment on the potential this would have. Also, *IF* Irene is not as strong, wouldn't that cause a different set of steering currents, and wouldn't she be less likely to turn poleward. (yes, there are exceptions to every rule...I'm just wanting an intelligent spin on how things are progressing this afternoon )

[Riptide]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looks like she is slowing and trying to turn to the north, may miss the next forecast point well to the east.

Wouldn't be surprised if these models trend more eastward. Still a chance it could miss the United States entirely.

There appears to be a distinct stair-stepping pattern involved with Irene's movement.

[tolakram]

Max wind will probably be lowered to 80 kts on the next advisory. It appears that the location of the DR to its south is severely impeding inflow in that direction. It will need to get away from the DR to really get going.

I agree, most likely. I don't see why others find Irene currently strenthening?

Pressure readings from recon. Pressure is dropping, winds will follow.