WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[HURAKAN]

TXPN24 KNES 260304
SIMWIR

A. 04W (SONGDA)

B. 26/0232Z

C. 15.1N

D. 126.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... OW EYE EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR DT=6.5.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN
20 NM (37 KM).

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[oaba09]

The eye is so well defined...Amazing....

[oaba09]

TY 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 26 May 2011
<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50'(17.8°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 923.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[dexterlabio]

Good thing we were able to be back home before those rainbands from Songda affect the north. Now I can monitor this howler minute by minute. The eye is so defined it can be seen clearly in visible satloop.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

The close up image says it all. I guess this should be at least 135kts in intensity. No doubt we have our 1st typhoon and supertyphoon this season.

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 920.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

[Chacor]

JMA now forecasting a 100 kt peak, extremely rare.

WTJP31 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1102 SONGDA (1102) 930 HPA
AT 15.1N 126.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 18.3N 124.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[dexterlabio]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 MAY 2011 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 15:28:43 N Lon : 125:49:35 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 918.1mb/140.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.6 degrees

[oaba09]

PAGASA finally changes their track

[RobWESTPACWX]

Glad to see your back Dexter, also glad to now see PAGASA finnally taking the storm to the N, I honestly believe they were just playing it safe over the past several days. Rather cuase a panic than not cuase one and it did make landfall I suppose.

[rdhdstpchld]

So is it me or is this storm playing hopscotch with the island of Okinawa? What is the factor in that continual east coast/west coast swapping? Seems like at one 6hr update, it's going up the west...at the next 6hr point, it's going up the east side of the island...I get steering currents (on a very basic level) but can anyone elaborate what's playing with the forecast? I'm curious...I don't need an answer ('cause we'll just have to wait for that, I get it) just looking for the theoretical reasoning type info...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, I'm back everyone, finnally back in here so just put a video up! Please check it out and let me know what you think.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoe6draOQm8[/youtube]

[oaba09]

105 knots!



<Analyses at 26/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N15°35'(15.6°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°05'(28.1°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[Infdidoll]

Welcome back, Rob! Could you add a link to the video on your Westernpacificweather.com Facebook page feed? I just posted your video on the Kadena Air Base page and told people to like your page for updates. If you post it in your news feed, people see the video immediately.

[Infdidoll]

Regarding Okinawas Typhoon Condition of Readiness (TCOR), per Commander of Fleet Activities:

"At 1520 (3:20PM) on 26 May local time we went to TCCOR-3. Typhoon Songda is projected to visit us this weekend, with her eye passing 10 miles of Kadena Air Base by 2000 (8PM) on 28 May local time. She's forecast to weaken a bit before she strikes, but still bring strong winds. With many taking a long weekend, now is the ideal time to prepare as much as possible without compromising missions. ~The EMO"

[rdhdstpchld]

Regarding Okinawas Typhoon Condition of Readiness (TCOR), per Commander of Fleet Activities:

"At 1520 (3:20PM) on 26 May local time we went to TCCOR-3. Typhoon Songda is projected to visit us this weekend, with her eye passing 10 miles of Kadena Air Base by 2000 (8PM) on 28 May local time. She's forecast to weaken a bit before she strikes, but still bring strong winds. With many taking a long weekend, now is the ideal time to prepare as much as possible without compromising missions. ~The EMO"

Ok - so that was what the Giant Voice was saying...all I got was "3:20" -- the rest was so garbled it's useless...LOL. God forbid it was a tsunami warning or some attack imminent...we'd be screwed; tying down lawn furniture as the enemy marches up Douglas...LOL!!!

[rdhdstpchld]

and ps - welcome back Rob - I love the updates!!! Now if only I could get my Mediocre cable to buffer more than 20sec at a time, I could watch it

[Infdidoll]

Regarding Okinawas Typhoon Condition of Readiness (TCOR), per Commander of Fleet Activities:

"At 1520 (3:20PM) on 26 May local time we went to TCCOR-3. Typhoon Songda is projected to visit us this weekend, with her eye passing 10 miles of Kadena Air Base by 2000 (8PM) on 28 May local time. She's forecast to weaken a bit before she strikes, but still bring strong winds. With many taking a long weekend, now is the ideal time to prepare as much as possible without compromising missions. ~The EMO"

Ok - so that was what the Giant Voice was saying...all I got was "3:20" -- the rest was so garbled it's useless...LOL. God forbid it was a tsunami warning or some attack imminent...we'd be screwed; tying down lawn furniture as the enemy marches up Douglas...LOL!!!

LOL! We get the Giant Voice out here in town, too...but it's only in Japanese...so I only understand "kudasai" and "wakarimashita" and the rest is all...uh, foreign? Believe it or not, when the tsunami happened, I had no idea anything was going on. Thank God a neighbor who was out walking her dog on the sea wall came down and told me I'd better evacuate because they were chasing people off the wall!

I'm waiting to see which side of the island this darn thing is going to hit us on. If it hits on the Western side (where I live), I'm thinking I might just go up there and join my husband on his duty shift after all, like he is now encouraging me to do after seeing this thing on satellite. LOL I think he might actually be a little scared. However, if we get a giant storm surge with how close we live to the water, I'M going to be scared! I'm still in disbelief that it will actually hit us. I'm preparing anyway, but I'll admit the nonchalance of being threatened too many times.

[Chacor]

105 kt from JMA happens maybe only two or three times a year. Crazy strong storm.