ATL: IRENE - Models

[fox13weather]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

was something like FoxWeather13...called it on Saturday!

thank you ...I sure did ..... there was no way the storm was making land fall from Florida to South Carolina....the strength of the trough was going to be way too strong ...that being said ..New England is not out of the woods yet ...Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay and all of the inlets along the south side of New England are highly vulnerable to storm surge flooding ...going to be a close call...

[BensonTCwatcher]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

I have to think back a bit for a hurricane track to shift in one direction every forecast. Usually you get a back and forth shifting for a while, until models lock in. Irene was west and went east every advisory.

it wasn't really a difficult call for a pro though, as this is pretty typical and climo bears that out. This is seen as the "right bias" in the GFS we hear about. It is more rare that the storm tracks west and think that in the last 5 years the process of modeling has improved such that once upper air data goes in the dynamical models the flip flopping essentially is over on a consensus view. I have seen storm after storm modeled to landfall in FL and work NW to N to NE such that I would tend to deafault to that outcome unless there is a persistent synoptic feature to change it. Even in this case the ridge cannot stay teleconnected over a 5 day period very often to the extent that it can keep a strong cyclone from turning right. How often have we head "rounding the periphery of the ridge"? We are not in a part of the year when homegrown systems are linking up wiht ULL's and acting erratic like October. I would bet the forecasters at the NHC in their internal office pool could not get any takers for a FL landfall on this one at all. (Not to suggest they are prone to gambling, and of course I am speaking figureatively so please no need to get the flamethrower out )

[otowntiger]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

was something like FoxWeather13...called it on Saturday!

thank you ...I sure did ....

Now, what other little prognostications can we get out of you?

[johngaltfla]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

was something like FoxWeather13...called it on Saturday!

thank you ...I sure did ..... there was no way the storm was making land fall from Florida to South Carolina....the strength of the trough was going to be way too strong ...that being said ..New England is not out of the woods yet ...Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay and all of the inlets along the south side of New England are highly vulnerable to storm surge flooding ...going to be a close call...

That's why we watch you guys down here in Sarasota.

[fox13weather]

over one million hits on our web site yesterday ..we are proud of what we have accomplished...

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com


check it out ...thank you!

[Texas Snowman]

Be Very Careful. A wobble down here would make all the difference in landfall.

Ask the people that went through Charley...

[HurrMark]

So far a tad south...low pressure trough not as strong as 06Z...we will see what that means...

[Jevo]

12z GFS +36



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z GFS +48



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Im off to work.. someone pick up the rest of the run

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

C'mon baby go south of Nova Scotia, and out to sea on this run.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Barely avoiding Carolinas landfall on 12Z GFS

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS developing 98L I see


Thanks for the updates jevo!

[SouthFLTropics]

OT - Look what else is making it's way across the pond with a decent high sitting above it. CV season is in full gear!!!

SFT

[xironman]

The Atlantic ridge is a bit stronger, but the path is the same...

[Jevo]

Barely avoiding Carolinas landfall on 12Z GFS

http://img847.imageshack.us/img847/2846 ... sl084o.gif

hey IWM.. I like your maps.. I was going to use them, but I was looking for one that picked up the initialization down near Haiti/DR.. Can you PM me a link in case I missed it

[GTStorm]

still pounding the OBX...looks alot like 06Z runs up through 93 hrs.

(sorry, I cannot post graphic)

[cycloneye]

For comments about any future developments that the models show,go to the 90L thread and Global Model Runs Discussion thread at Talking Tropics.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Barely avoiding Carolinas landfall on 12Z GFS

http://img847.imageshack.us/img847/2846 ... sl084o.gif

hey IWM.. I like your maps.. I was going to use them, but I was looking for one that picked up the initialization down near Haiti/DR.. Can you PM me a link in case I missed it

Go to my site and click a sublink of GFS Atlantic.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Landfall in Boston at 961mb on 12Z GFS.

[ncweatherwizard]

Just received this from a met friend. It is "a better version of the GFS" according to him.
Just giving you a head up about a version of the GFS with the EnKF used to initialize the model. Much better than the 3DVAR used in the operational

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... 82406.html


I thought everyone would like to see this.

Uh oh...bringing in the big boys! Might want to repost to get the full link though; it's got a '...' in it.

I've been quietly trying to advertise these ensemble prediction systems every once so often this week, but it just gets lost very quickly (and no one looks at the TA forum any more!). Thought I'd take this opportunity to tout them again. Maybe I'll do a thread on these type of modeling systems once things settle down.

[xironman]

That's going to hurt, is Rhode Island considered landfall?