ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=05

toggle image 63 -65.. check the times for cmc

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL 12z is more east. Landfall in the middle of the DR and a clear recurve away from the USA:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl ... _nest3.png

[KWT]

pressure is down at least 2 milibars..

Yep, center looks like its on the western edge of the convection, interesting to see exactly where it is...wonder whether the LLflow has picked up again?

Probably 40kts right now.

[AdamFirst]

Looking at these model runs I have a feeling the NHC's current track is right on target.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021756
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 09 20110802
174600 1541N 06439W 9778 00247 0060 +224 +179 168008 009 /// /// 03
174630 1541N 06440W 9770 00256 0060 +231 +179 168008 008 /// /// 03
174700 1540N 06442W 9770 00257 0061 +230 +179 156005 006 /// /// 03
174730 1540N 06443W 9770 00257 0063 +226 +180 155005 006 /// /// 03
174800 1539N 06445W 9770 00259 0064 +213 +180 117004 005 /// /// 03
174830 1538N 06446W 9766 00262 0066 +211 +179 067006 007 /// /// 03
174900 1537N 06447W 9783 00246 0065 +228 +177 207003 005 /// /// 03
174930 1536N 06448W 9772 00259 0064 +235 +176 211008 008 /// /// 03
175000 1535N 06449W 9768 00261 0064 +235 +178 203008 008 /// /// 03
175030 1534N 06450W 9769 00260 0064 +235 +179 195010 010 /// /// 03
175100 1533N 06451W 9771 00260 0064 +238 +181 198011 011 /// /// 03
175130 1531N 06452W 9768 00262 0065 +233 +183 200011 011 /// /// 03
175200 1530N 06453W 9770 00261 0066 +239 +184 205010 011 /// /// 03
175230 1529N 06454W 9772 00259 0067 +237 +186 208010 011 /// /// 03
175300 1528N 06455W 9770 00262 0067 +239 +188 209010 010 /// /// 03
175330 1527N 06456W 9770 00263 0067 +237 +191 202011 012 /// /// 03
175400 1526N 06458W 9770 00263 0068 +236 +193 199011 012 /// /// 03
175430 1525N 06459W 9769 00264 0068 +237 +195 202010 011 /// /// 03
175500 1524N 06500W 9770 00263 0068 +240 +197 201010 011 /// /// 03
175530 1523N 06501W 9774 00259 0067 +239 +198 197011 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[hurricaneCW]

Some very sharp curves, maybe this will pull a Jeanne if a ridge can rebuild.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
....
$$
FORECASTER ORAVEC

Hmm...

[caneseddy]

If I'm looking at this right and not mistaken the Euro has Emily making landfall in the Keys and riding the west coast of Florida

At 120 hours: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

At 144 hours: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

Am I seeing things????

[HurricaneWarning92]

Some very sharp curves, maybe this will pull a Jeanne if a ridge can rebuild.

yeah this is what im referring too. Last night some models showed strong ridging back in i think. but idk.

[wxman57]

Center looks to be near 15.5N/65.1W - exposed west of the convection. Emily remains very poorly organized, though there could be some 40kt winds in the convection well east of the center.

[AdamFirst]

Still no 2 PM advisory.

San Juan radar is back up and running.

[KWT]

Some very sharp curves, maybe this will pull a Jeanne if a ridge can rebuild.

Yep there are some very sharp curves but chances of it pulling a Jeanne are pretty close to nothing, simply because the flow is once again too progressive and troughy, like last year at the moment...

[HURAKAN]

LLC looks poor

[tolakram]

Live visible, rapid scan. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

New convection building west of main blob.

['CaneFreak]

I will hold you to that statement...so when it pulls a Jeanne, I am going to come find you!

Some very sharp curves, maybe this will pull a Jeanne if a ridge can rebuild.

Yep there are some very sharp curves but chances of it pulling a Jeanne are pretty close to nothing, simply because the flow is once again too progressive and troughy, like last year at the moment...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah hwrf.. farther west.. almost on the coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[wxman57]

Still no 2 PM advisory.

San Juan radar is back up and running.

Just remember that due to the curvature of the Earth, that radar is looking at around 50,000 ft above the water's surface in that convection east of the center.

[KWT]

Center looks to be near 15.5N/65.1W - exposed west of the convection. Emily remains very poorly organized, though there could be some 40kt winds in the convection well east of the center.

Very interesting, system looks further west then the last advisory then, thats not really gaining that much latitude then...

Wouldn't be shocked to see the system try to relocate again, also new convection trying to form over that area you pick out...messy system!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY BACK ON TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT 12
MPH...19 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...70
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

Some very sharp curves, maybe this will pull a Jeanne if a ridge can rebuild.

Yep there are some very sharp curves but chances of it pulling a Jeanne are pretty close to nothing, simply because the flow is once again too progressive and troughy, like last year at the moment...

the models are actually all still building the ridge north of it.. just this run its weaker and farther west..