ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Looks well right of the track already. Think I definitely dodged a bullet here.

Don't think I'd agree. It may be a little right but well within the wobble factor. Don't let your guard down yet.

What are you guys looking at? looks to pass right over the next forecast point...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure by AF plane=965 mbs.

[Dave]

Not sure if GE is updating correctly...checking.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240030
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 18 20110824
002000 2054N 07210W 6972 02941 9748 +152 +107 312057 059 064 002 00
002030 2053N 07211W 6970 02956 //// +103 //// 311066 071 065 005 01
002100 2052N 07212W 6968 02972 //// +085 //// 305067 071 060 011 01
002130 2050N 07213W 6974 02979 9856 +094 //// 301061 065 057 007 01
002200 2049N 07215W 6968 02994 9875 +084 //// 301058 060 053 009 01
002230 2048N 07216W 6965 03009 9850 +122 +086 300062 065 051 006 00
002300 2047N 07217W 6967 03011 9866 +116 +087 301063 064 048 003 00
002330 2046N 07218W 6968 03018 9881 +108 +094 303060 061 046 001 00
002400 2045N 07219W 6967 03026 9897 +101 +088 305062 063 046 006 00
002430 2043N 07221W 6966 03037 9932 +080 //// 308058 059 046 010 01
002500 2042N 07222W 6963 03046 9932 +085 //// 311058 059 044 013 01
002530 2041N 07223W 6970 03042 9937 +084 //// 316057 057 042 012 01
002600 2040N 07225W 6965 03057 9935 +092 //// 318057 059 039 008 01
002630 2038N 07226W 6966 03057 9935 +099 +075 317056 058 036 002 00
002700 2037N 07227W 6967 03061 9949 +093 +073 313053 053 032 002 00
002730 2036N 07228W 6967 03063 9960 +084 +082 316050 052 032 002 00
002800 2035N 07230W 6969 03066 9963 +085 +084 319052 053 031 003 00
002830 2033N 07231W 6966 03075 9963 +088 +088 319054 055 031 001 00
002900 2032N 07232W 6967 03075 9965 +088 //// 321055 056 030 002 01
002930 2031N 07234W 6967 03080 9968 +087 //// 324053 054 028 003 01
$$
;

No evidence of strengthening yet.

[Nimbus]

She is getting warm moist inflow through the windward passage. Pressure bombed to 965 mb and winds over 85 Knots (looks like that reading got tossed or wasn't actually at the surface) but she could be a cat 3 by morning. These storms don't need a front above 20N to recurve they do that on their own due to Coriolis effect. Usually however there are steering winds such as those that circulate clockwise around a high pressure area.

[Terry]

FYI - two places for info in Abacos:
http://www.hopetownfirerescue.com/
Barometerbob.org

[Dave]

[Jevo]

Looks well right of the track already. Think I definitely dodged a bullet here.

If I were in the Bahamas... I would definitly lose this thinking.. The storm is hitting all forecast points and in 2 days according to the NHC you will have a Cat 3/4 over your head.. The "bullet" is still heading your way

VVVVVVVVV Disclaimer VVVVVVVVVV

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 240035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/00:15:50Z
B. 21 deg 04 min N
071 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2827 m
D. 73 kt
E. 067 deg 15 nm
F. 155 deg 90 kt
G. 068 deg 20 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 6 C / 3051 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C31
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 00:09:50Z
;

[drezee]

Last NOAA drop was insane: check the recon thread

967mb 95° (from the E) 107 knots (123 mph)
965mb 95° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph)
962mb 100° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
954mb 105° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
941mb 105° (from the ESE) 101 knots (116 mph)
937mb 105° (from the ESE) 109 knots (125 mph)
918mb 115° (from the ESE) 113 knots (130 mph)

[KWT]

Lowest pressure by AF plane=965 mbs.

Yep system looks like its strengthening a little faster in the last 6hrs, probably that will continue as the system pulls away from hispaniola, there will come a point where the eye will clear and the bottom will fall out down into the 920s or 930s I suspect.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240040
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 19 20110824
003000 2029N 07235W 6958 03096 9982 +085 //// 322052 053 /// /// 05
003030 2027N 07234W 6967 03085 9983 +085 +079 318051 052 /// /// 03
003100 2027N 07232W 6977 03069 9976 +087 +078 314051 052 029 002 03
003130 2027N 07229W 6967 03076 9975 +085 +077 311051 052 032 001 00
003200 2026N 07227W 6967 03078 9973 +085 +081 308050 051 032 000 00
003230 2026N 07225W 6967 03074 9972 +085 +082 304049 051 033 000 00
003300 2025N 07223W 6965 03081 9972 +085 +078 299051 051 033 000 00
003330 2024N 07220W 6965 03079 9973 +085 +077 295050 051 033 001 00
003400 2024N 07218W 6968 03074 9970 +087 +074 292050 050 034 001 00
003430 2023N 07216W 6968 03072 9967 +089 +080 288049 049 034 001 00
003500 2022N 07214W 6968 03073 9965 +090 +083 288048 049 035 001 00
003530 2022N 07211W 6970 03073 9976 +076 //// 281046 047 035 002 01
003600 2021N 07209W 6961 03084 9974 +077 //// 275047 048 034 002 01
003630 2020N 07207W 6966 03079 9976 +077 //// 268046 047 033 003 01
003700 2020N 07205W 6969 03071 9970 +085 //// 268047 048 034 002 01
003730 2019N 07203W 6967 03080 9970 +085 //// 266046 047 034 004 01
003800 2019N 07203W 6967 03080 9976 +083 //// 258044 045 034 003 01
003830 2018N 07158W 6963 03083 9969 +089 +078 257045 046 035 002 00
003900 2018N 07158W 6963 03083 9965 +095 +072 256046 047 035 002 00
003930 2017N 07154W 6968 03077 9963 +096 +069 255046 047 034 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240031
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 28 20110824
002130 2032N 07252W 7517 02472 0000 +129 +118 341042 042 033 001 00
002200 2031N 07253W 7516 02475 0004 +126 +120 341037 039 033 001 00
002230 2030N 07255W 7517 02477 0004 +130 +115 341040 042 033 000 00
002300 2029N 07257W 7517 02480 0006 +131 +113 343040 042 033 002 00
002330 2028N 07259W 7515 02485 0011 +130 +110 345041 043 033 001 00
002400 2027N 07301W 7515 02485 0008 +134 +114 343037 039 034 000 00
002430 2026N 07303W 7517 02484 0005 +137 +113 343034 035 035 000 00
002500 2025N 07305W 7518 02483 0002 +139 +116 349035 036 033 000 00
002530 2024N 07307W 7518 02483 0003 +140 +116 348035 036 032 001 00
002600 2023N 07309W 7517 02486 0009 +136 +118 348033 035 030 000 00
002630 2022N 07311W 7517 02490 0014 +134 +117 348031 032 031 001 00
002700 2021N 07313W 7516 02493 0018 +131 +119 348029 030 030 000 00
002730 2019N 07314W 7518 02489 0018 +131 +122 352031 031 /// /// 03
002800 2017N 07313W 7517 02491 0020 +130 +122 347033 034 /// /// 03
002830 2016N 07311W 7521 02489 0020 +131 +120 339032 034 031 001 03
002900 2016N 07309W 7518 02493 0023 +129 +120 336030 031 030 003 00
002930 2016N 07307W 7517 02493 0020 +130 +128 335032 034 030 002 00
003000 2017N 07305W 7517 02489 0018 +129 +122 338036 037 029 000 00
003030 2017N 07303W 7517 02488 0016 +130 +119 341034 034 027 001 00
003100 2018N 07301W 7520 02484 0010 +135 +116 337035 035 029 000 00

[Dave]

I can take a mission or do center fixes on graphics...ge is running slow for me tonight. May have to reinstall it tomorrow.

[bahamaswx]

Looks well right of the track already. Think I definitely dodged a bullet here.

If I were in the Bahamas... I would definitly lose this thinking.. The storm is hitting all forecast points and in 2 days according to the NHC you will have a Cat 3/4 over your head.. The "bullet" is still heading your way

VVVVVVVVV Disclaimer VVVVVVVVVV

Strong storm to be sure, and I am prepared. But a track to my right (even by ~20miles) is a godsend indeed.

[ncweatherwizard]

Last NOAA drop was insane: check the recon thread

967mb 95° (from the E) 107 knots (123 mph)
965mb 95° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph)
962mb 100° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
954mb 105° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
941mb 105° (from the ESE) 101 knots (116 mph)
937mb 105° (from the ESE) 109 knots (125 mph)
918mb 115° (from the ESE) 113 knots (130 mph)

That's a little misleading since the surface ob isn't included:

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
978mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)
976mb 90° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)
974mb 95° (from the E) 89 knots (102 mph)
971mb 95° (from the E) 93 knots (107 mph)
967mb 95° (from the E) 107 knots (123 mph)
965mb 95° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph)
962mb 100° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
954mb 105° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
941mb 105° (from the ESE) 101 knots (116 mph)
937mb 105° (from the ESE) 109 knots (125 mph)
918mb 115° (from the ESE) 113 knots (130 mph)
802mb 145° (from the SE) 82 knots (94 mph)
751mb 155° (from the SSE) 82 knots (94 mph)

[Dave]

I can take a mission or post center fixes only....having trouble with GE updating on my system tonight...will reinstall tomorrow.

[bzukajo]

Problem is - that map is incorrect. It associates storm surge height with a Saffir-Simpson category. That's just not the case, as we saw with recent storms (Ike, Katrina). It's the SIZE of the wind field that makes the storm surge, not the peak wind that might occur only in a small area (SS Category). So take the "Cat 3-4-5" area on that map and insert a larger Cat 1-2 (like Irene might be) and you have the resulting surge.

As Ike approached, I was in Houston watching local news footage out of Galveston. It was many hours before the storm arrived. The weather was calm. The footage showed children playing in the water in front of a church with parents nodding approvingly. I was horrified. The surge had already begun. Galveston was already beginning to flood. I yelled at the television. My fiance looked at me strangely. "It's already to late." I said. There was no way those people were going to get off that island in time. I knew that with a surge coming in so early, that the people playing in the water were going to face a nightmare soon.

I am trying to get historic storm surge measurements for Rye, NY. My father lives right on the sound, and after what I saw happen to Galveston, I have some concern.

[rainstorm]

its now a 5.5 on the bastardi scale

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Should deliver hurricane force winds in all states NC to Maine
10 minutes ago
»
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
IRENE EXPLODING! PRESSURE DOWN NEAR 965. NOW A POWER RATING OF 5.5 OUT OF 10 BASTARDI SCALE ( pressure factors into true strength)

[CrazyC83]

I can take a mission or post center fixes only....having trouble with GE updating on my system tonight...will reinstall tomorrow.

Take over the NOAA2 plane. I'll stay on AF302.