ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[jpigott]

34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 130NW

Looks like then the TS windfield will be 20-30ish miles off shore of coastal Palm Beach if Irene stays on the current NHC path.

[Deputy Van Halen]

The yahoo news story on Irene contained this paragraph:

"Officials dusted off evacuation plans and readied for the first hurricane to threaten the U.S. in three years. It's been more than a decade since the East Coast has been hit by a major hurricane, considered a Category 3 with winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)".

I guess they don't count Florida as part of the "east coast"-->Jeanne '04=Cat 3

[psyclone]

Right now TS winds are out 205 miles from the center, so depending on how far west she comes we may get into that wind field. Also has she strengthens and continues to get larger that windfield will probably expand. I remember some larger storms with TS force winds outward of 275+ miles from the center.

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40

ne of the center I believe

Funny, I just asked the same thing in the recon discussion thread. What's the TS windfield look like to the west of the center?

i bet it will drop off fast, especially in a non marine environment.

[MGC]

Checked Grand Turk's weather but there was no observation...guess the power is out. I imagine the island is getting pounded right now. Eye is now looking back at us on the IR channel....hurricane starting to deepen....how low she goes nobody knows......MGC

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240111
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 32 20110824
010130 2104N 07209W 7516 02238 9676 +200 +136 007022 024 025 000 03
010200 2106N 07208W 7512 02242 9683 +189 +147 019024 026 029 004 00
010230 2108N 07208W 7514 02240 9692 +176 +154 036028 029 029 001 00
010300 2110N 07208W 7517 02241 9703 +169 +155 049033 035 036 001 00
010330 2111N 07209W 7515 02254 9708 +176 +153 056042 044 042 004 00
010400 2113N 07209W 7515 02264 9722 +174 +158 062049 052 053 005 00
010430 2115N 07209W 7515 02276 9734 +173 +158 068059 062 066 005 00
010500 2117N 07209W 7512 02293 9755 +166 +158 078063 065 073 008 00
010530 2119N 07209W 7519 02299 9774 +162 +160 084068 071 079 009 00
010600 2121N 07209W 7517 02316 9793 +156 //// 095077 082 075 016 01
010630 2123N 07209W 7505 02345 9816 +150 //// 094093 095 073 019 01
010700 2125N 07208W 7508 02359 9848 +138 //// 086093 095 070 023 01
010730 2126N 07208W 7502 02377 9871 +130 //// 079092 095 069 025 01
010800 2128N 07208W 7521 02373 9885 +133 //// 075082 084 065 027 01
010830 2130N 07208W 7519 02387 9902 +134 +131 080081 082 062 019 00
010900 2132N 07208W 7505 02416 9922 +126 //// 084079 080 060 014 01
010930 2133N 07208W 7512 02417 9930 +127 //// 086077 078 058 013 01
011000 2135N 07208W 7516 02421 9935 +132 +130 088072 074 054 009 03
011030 2137N 07208W 7505 02441 9941 +134 +131 084069 072 /// /// 03
011100 2139N 07208W 7507 02446 9942 +142 +133 083066 069 /// /// 03

95 kts Flt; 79 kts sfmr

[eastcoastFL]

It sure seems strange that all the models are in agreement. To me it seems like Irene wants to go to Cuba. When is the major shift north going to take place?

The latest discussion says that the current wnw motion should continue through tonight and then turn to the NW sometime tomorrow and thats it. It does say went she will start heading due north or NNE.

I hate waiting for a storm to make the nw to N or ne turn when its creeping wnw straight at us.

[CronkPSU]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

what 0z models are out?

well they are run like between 8-9 i think, we just don't see them til around midnight, considering the things he has said in the past, i think he has a direct line to the NHC!

[ozonepete]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

what 0z models are out?

Yeah. What 00Z model runs are out already?

[cpdaman]

wouldnt that be something if the islands of hispanola and the mountains pulled some "voodoo" and she nudged w/ wsw for several hours tonite along N. coast of hispanola.

i mean steering flow seems weak....now ...pressures are building in to her north (for now) and the coast of hispanola has done stranger things in the past....no? like unmodeled things

It would be except it's pretty much past Hispaniola now.

funny it's at 72w longitude which puts it just along the longitude border separating haiti/ and dominican republic so not yet

[ConvergenceZone]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

WXMAN, in your OPINION, how strong of a cane do you think that Irene has the POTENTIAL of being when it gets as far North as Long Island(Assuming it Goes There)

[ozonepete]

wouldnt that be something if the islands of hispanola and the mountains pulled some "voodoo" and she nudged w/ wsw for several hours tonite along N. coast of hispanola.

i mean steering flow seems weak....now ...pressures are building in to her north (for now) and the coast of hispanola has done stranger things in the past....no? like unmodeled things

It would be except it's pretty much past Hispaniola now.

funny it's at 72w longitude which puts it just along the longitude border separating haiti/ and dominican republic so not yet

Well it would take more than a nudge.

[eastcoastFL]

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40[/quote]ne of the center I believe[/quote]

Funny, I just asked the same thing in the recon discussion thread. What's the TS windfield look like to the west of the center?[/quote]
i bet it will drop off fast, especially in a non marine environment.[/quote]


What non-marine environment are you referring to? do you mean inland or irenes location? Because the bahamas is just about the same thing as being in the ocean. I do believe you mean the windfield will miss inland palm beach county?

[Recurve]

Per the discussion of surge, wind field and category, here's a link to recent news about the IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) scale and the forecasts Powell et al at NOAA HRD are developing. I will post a link to any analysis on Irene if it's available.

http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

With a big storm like Irene, the Wind Damage Potential and Surge Damage Potential numbers could give a more realistic indication of the storm's intensity, especially if it drops back down a SSHS category later on near landfall on the East Coast.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 240117
XXAA 74018 99209 70720 08002 99974 27008 19046 00736 ///// /////
92456 24404 20555 85198 21611 22062 88999 77999
31313 09608 80057
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 25
62626 REL 2091N07196W 005726 SPG 2095N07192W 010103 WL150 19553 0
85 DLM WND 21557 973751 MBL WND 20553 EYEWALL 180=
XXBB 74018 99209 70720 08002 00974 27008 11962 26009 22938 25208
33915 23803 44843 21208 55795 18609 66776 20039 77773 20041 88751
18032
21212 00974 19046 11965 19555 22925 20555 33751 22569
31313 09608 80057
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 25
62626 REL 2091N07196W 005726 SPG 2095N07192W 010103 WL150 19553 0
85 DLM WND 21557 973751 MBL WND 20553 EYEWALL 180=

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 25 NOAA2

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 01:17Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 25

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 20.9N 72.0W
Location: 68 miles (109 km) to the SW (235°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
974mb (28.76 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 190° (from the S) 46 knots (53 mph)
1000mb -236m (-774 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 456m (1,496 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 205° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
850mb 1,198m (3,930 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.5°C (68.9°F) 220° (from the SW) 62 knots (71 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:57Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Additional Data
- Temperature data is doubtful between the following levels: 750mb - 770mb

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 180° (S) from the eye center.

Release Location: 20.91N 71.96W View map)
Release Time: 0:57:26Z

Splash Location: 20.95N 71.92W (
Splash Time: 1:01:03Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 205° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 53 knots (61 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 57 knots (66 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 751mb to 973mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 53 knots (61 mph)


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
974mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.2°C (79.2°F)
962mb 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F)
938mb 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.4°C (75.9°F)
915mb 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F)
843mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F)
795mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) 17.7°C (63.9°F)
776mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 16.1°C (61.0°F)
773mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F)
751mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
974mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 46 knots (53 mph)
965mb 195° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
925mb 205° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
751mb 225° (from the SW) 69 knots (79 mph)




[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240130
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 24 20110824
012000 2105N 07210W 6967 02865 9670 +143 +112 014018 021 008 001 00
012030 2105N 07212W 6964 02875 9675 +145 +099 018030 033 020 001 00
012100 2106N 07214W 6970 02880 9681 +152 +098 017038 040 019 002 03
012130 2107N 07215W 6966 02890 9681 +158 +099 023045 049 038 001 00
012200 2109N 07216W 6970 02893 9686 +164 +095 022057 059 048 001 03
012230 2110N 07217W 6966 02911 9698 +159 +098 028061 063 060 001 03
012300 2111N 07218W 6969 02914 9718 +151 +103 034061 062 067 002 03
012330 2112N 07220W 6965 02931 9728 +151 +102 037063 064 075 004 00
012400 2113N 07221W 6972 02929 9763 +128 +117 039063 064 076 008 00
012430 2114N 07222W 6963 02953 9780 +119 //// 044060 061 073 009 01
012500 2116N 07223W 6956 02975 //// +092 //// 054076 082 072 013 01
012530 2117N 07225W 6968 02977 //// +075 //// 047085 093 070 024 01
012600 2118N 07226W 6980 02978 //// +070 //// 039083 085 066 028 05
012630 2119N 07227W 6960 03006 //// +067 //// 045081 083 064 026 01
012700 2120N 07228W 6967 03011 //// +078 //// 045070 074 059 021 01
012730 2122N 07229W 6967 03021 9900 +093 //// 044073 077 056 011 01
012800 2123N 07231W 6969 03026 9911 +092 +090 044076 077 054 005 00
012830 2124N 07232W 6964 03041 9919 +091 +083 047073 075 052 003 00
012900 2125N 07233W 6968 03044 9920 +097 +084 048068 070 049 003 00
012930 2126N 07234W 6966 03049 9920 +103 +083 050065 066 049 002 00
$$
;

93 kt FL, 76 kt SFMR.

[JTE50]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

[Dave]

Missing HDOBS #33 NOAA2

000
URNT15 KWBC 240131
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 34 20110824
012130 2220N 07207W 7505 02506 0017 +131 +135 085051 053 050 012 00
012200 2222N 07207W 7521 02492 0021 +129 //// 089046 048 051 013 01
012230 2224N 07207W 7525 02488 0023 +130 //// 090042 044 050 008 01
012300 2226N 07207W 7515 02501 0026 +129 //// 092045 046 048 007 01
012330 2228N 07206W 7506 02512 0022 +134 +131 093044 045 048 004 00
012400 2230N 07207W 7494 02528 0027 +133 +128 092047 048 050 004 00
012430 2232N 07207W 7508 02514 0035 +127 +130 091050 051 052 003 00
012500 2234N 07207W 7508 02515 0032 +130 +128 089052 053 049 003 00
012530 2236N 07206W 7511 02510 0032 +129 +127 088052 053 048 004 00
012600 2238N 07206W 7520 02501 0035 +128 +127 090052 052 048 003 00
012630 2240N 07206W 7510 02515 0038 +127 +127 088052 052 049 002 00
012700 2242N 07206W 7506 02522 0038 +130 +125 088051 052 050 002 00
012730 2244N 07206W 7510 02518 0038 +133 +123 088052 053 047 001 00
012800 2246N 07206W 7500 02533 0044 +129 +119 086051 052 047 003 00
012830 2248N 07206W 7502 02532 0046 +128 +118 086048 050 045 003 00
012900 2250N 07207W 7505 02531 0051 +127 +119 088049 051 043 003 00
012930 2251N 07209W 7502 02536 0050 +128 +119 084054 056 045 002 00
013000 2252N 07211W 7502 02539 0061 +120 +119 086054 056 045 002 00
013030 2254N 07214W 7500 02540 0060 +122 +117 086056 059 045 001 00
013100 2255N 07216W 7502 02538 0060 +123 +115 085060 061 044 003 00

[Portastorm]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

Jim -- be safe out there and let us know if you need anything!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

ConvergenceZone

I'll give you my two cents worth. I've studied historic East Coast Hurricanes making landfall north of 40 for nearly 20 years now. I've read every report and study I can get my hands on. Based upon everything I've read, 125 mph sustained seems to be the hard maxium limit if environmental conditions are "perfect" for a southern New England or Long Island landfall.