ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[JPmia]

Providenciales is getting a lashing: 40 mph with 60 mph gusts

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ECAY2&MR=1

[wxman57]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

what 0z models are out?

Yeah. What 00Z model runs are out already?

The 00Z tropical model suite (based on 18Z data, not 00Z).

[wxman57]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

WXMAN, in your OPINION, how strong of a cane do you think that Irene has the POTENTIAL of being when it gets as far North as Long Island(Assuming it Goes There)

Maybe 85 kts - Cat 2 at LI

[floridasun78]

it look like started moving nw

[Dave]

NOAA 2 CENTER FIXES

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240220
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 29 20110824
021000 2306N 07421W 6961 03172 0062 +098 +046 063036 037 /// /// 03
021030 2304N 07422W 6970 03158 0051 +105 +041 062033 034 030 000 03
021100 2302N 07423W 6965 03164 0048 +104 +042 059032 033 028 000 00
021130 2300N 07423W 6968 03159 0043 +109 +040 055030 030 028 001 00
021200 2259N 07424W 6970 03154 0043 +108 +040 054030 031 028 000 00
021230 2257N 07424W 6969 03157 0046 +106 +040 055029 030 031 002 00
021300 2255N 07425W 6967 03161 0050 +102 +041 057029 030 033 001 00
021330 2253N 07425W 6967 03158 0053 +100 +043 060030 030 034 000 00
021400 2251N 07426W 6967 03156 0051 +100 +042 058030 031 034 002 00
021430 2249N 07426W 6969 03156 0052 +099 +044 059030 032 034 001 00
021500 2247N 07427W 6970 03154 0051 +100 +046 060030 031 033 001 00
021530 2245N 07427W 6961 03163 0057 +091 +076 056031 032 034 011 00
021600 2243N 07428W 6963 03163 //// +069 //// 045033 034 037 010 01
021630 2241N 07428W 6973 03150 //// +069 //// 044034 036 037 008 01
021700 2239N 07429W 6969 03155 //// +070 //// 045038 039 040 010 01
021730 2237N 07429W 6968 03157 0053 +097 +061 047038 038 036 008 00
021800 2235N 07430W 6967 03157 0051 +099 +051 043037 039 034 006 00
021830 2233N 07430W 6967 03158 0051 +098 +049 045037 037 030 002 00
021900 2231N 07431W 6967 03155 0051 +097 +049 045037 037 028 000 00
021930 2230N 07431W 6967 03158 0054 +094 +050 044036 037 027 000 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

it look like started moving nw

Doesnt appear to really be moving much to me.

[cpdaman]

0z nam is a bit slower during first 30 hrs...and a hair SW at closest pass to jupiter florida @ hr 54 or so ....a bit more ridging due to less amplified Great lakes/ NE trough

[cpdaman]

it look like started moving nw

fl sun what link are you lookin at to watch movement

this is one i look at on occasion

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=ir

b/c it updates more frequently and has less of a black out time during the 3-5 am period

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240230
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 30 20110824
022000 2228N 07432W 6969 03152 0057 +091 +053 044036 037 026 000 00
022030 2226N 07432W 6968 03153 0053 +095 +051 042034 035 024 000 00
022100 2224N 07433W 6966 03157 0052 +095 +053 036033 034 025 000 00
022130 2222N 07433W 6969 03151 0057 +091 +059 035034 034 026 000 00
022200 2220N 07434W 6965 03160 0052 +096 +045 034033 034 028 000 00
022230 2218N 07434W 6967 03153 0053 +096 +045 033031 032 028 001 00
022300 2216N 07435W 6966 03156 0051 +095 +053 032030 031 027 001 00
022330 2214N 07436W 6967 03155 0051 +095 +057 031031 031 030 000 00
022400 2212N 07436W 6967 03154 0051 +095 +052 033033 033 028 000 00
022430 2210N 07437W 6967 03154 0047 +099 +045 034033 034 029 000 00
022500 2208N 07437W 6971 03150 0054 +094 +052 033033 034 029 001 03
022530 2206N 07437W 6963 03160 0058 +090 +053 034032 033 023 000 03
022600 2204N 07436W 6970 03149 0055 +091 +055 033031 031 026 000 00
022630 2203N 07435W 6967 03153 0055 +090 +055 031031 032 025 000 00
022700 2201N 07434W 6968 03152 0055 +090 +055 032030 030 023 000 00
022730 2159N 07433W 6967 03152 0057 +088 +056 028030 030 024 001 00
022800 2158N 07432W 6970 03149 0054 +090 +055 026029 029 024 000 00
022830 2156N 07431W 6962 03155 0055 +088 +057 023030 031 025 000 00
022900 2154N 07430W 6970 03147 0055 +086 +064 028031 032 027 000 00
022930 2153N 07429W 6966 03151 0059 +083 +068 027032 033 027 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

I have estimated that in the past 6 hrs or so she has moved at around 8mph at a 290 deg heading at the most north.

[Dave]

Be back..I've got to reboot this thing...

[cpdaman]

yup she's putt puttin it....and

if she want's to go RI tommorrow i hope she doesn't up well all the dang water

upwelling i beleive should be mentioned since she has slowed...or it is "on the table" so to speak

[ozonepete]

what 0z models are out?

wxman57: The 00Z tropical model suite (based on 18Z data, not 00Z)

Oh boo! That's a new one on me, pal. What do we say about 18Z output?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240240
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 31 20110824
023000 2151N 07428W 6967 03150 0060 +082 +074 028034 034 028 001 00
023030 2149N 07427W 6969 03146 0055 +084 +083 031035 036 029 000 00
023100 2148N 07426W 6967 03149 0051 +086 +081 029037 038 027 001 00
023130 2146N 07425W 6968 03145 0046 +090 +079 028037 038 029 000 00
023200 2145N 07424W 6966 03148 0051 +086 +078 025037 037 027 000 00
023230 2143N 07423W 6969 03144 0046 +091 +076 032038 040 029 000 00
023300 2141N 07422W 6966 03145 0039 +095 +062 033041 041 028 001 00
023330 2140N 07421W 6967 03145 0039 +095 +063 029041 041 026 000 00
023400 2138N 07420W 6965 03147 0041 +093 +058 028041 042 028 001 00
023430 2136N 07419W 6969 03143 0044 +090 +056 026042 043 027 000 00
023500 2135N 07418W 6963 03147 0044 +090 +053 023042 043 028 000 00
023530 2133N 07417W 6967 03143 0044 +090 +056 023044 045 028 000 00
023600 2131N 07415W 6969 03140 0037 +094 +050 024044 045 029 000 00
023630 2129N 07414W 6966 03141 0036 +095 +049 023043 044 028 000 00
023700 2128N 07413W 6965 03139 0035 +095 +048 023044 045 028 001 03
023730 2126N 07412W 6969 03138 0034 +095 +049 022045 046 030 000 00
023800 2124N 07411W 6967 03139 0035 +095 +048 021045 046 030 001 00
023830 2123N 07410W 6967 03136 0034 +095 +048 021045 045 031 000 00
023900 2121N 07409W 6967 03134 0034 +094 +048 021044 045 031 000 00
023930 2119N 07408W 6969 03131 0029 +096 +046 021044 044 029 000 00
$$
;

[FireRat]

yup she's putt puttin it....and

if she want's to go RI tommorrow i hope she doesn't up well all the dang water

upwelling i beleive should be mentioned since she has slowed...or it is "on the table" so to speak

Wouldn't that be a good thing as the storm would weaken and not crush the Bahamas?

[rjgator]

What will happen if she continues to lose speed or even stalls. Will it give time for the ridge to build back in or will the trough just dig deeper until it weakens the ridge enough for the storm to start a NW and NNW motion.

[cpdaman]

yup she's putt puttin it....and

if she want's to go RI tommorrow i hope she doesn't up well all the dang water

upwelling i beleive should be mentioned since she has slowed...or it is "on the table" so to speak

Wouldn't that be a good thing as the storm would weaken and not crush the Bahamas?

well i belong to 3 weather boards and it's interesting how some take things much differently....i don't want the bahamas crushed but i wanna see this bomb.

[sunnyday]

How close is that closest pass to Jupiter, Fl, supposed to be?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

NW quad? Isn't the NE Quad typically the most powerful quad of a storm? Anyone know how far the center is supposed to pass east of WPB? And how far the ts force winds are supposed to extend as it approaches the bahamas to our west?

Thanks in advance!

I believe the core of the storm will be AT LEAST 150 miles off the shore of West Palm Beach. I think it's actually closer to 200.

Using 5am advisory points - This is the distance of the "center" should it track directly on the line from NW Broward (Tamarac/CS):

Results for 26.2N, 80.25W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 27.3N, 77.6W or about 177.1 miles (285.0 km) from your location.