ATL: IRENE - Models

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clfenwi
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4981 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:40 am

00Z HWRF stats. 72 hr point is off-shore of Outer Banks (20 mile shift to northeast from 18Z run). 96h point is west-central MA (42 mile shift to the south from 18Z run)

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 25

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -74.90 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -76.90 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 117.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.20 LAT: 27.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 29.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 33.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 34.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 35.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 36.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 38.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -73.30 LAT: 40.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 42.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 44.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 47.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -67.70 LAT: 49.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -65.70 LAT: 52.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -62.80 LAT: 54.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4982 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:41 am

00Z HWRF 72h

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4983 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:43 am

00Z HWRF 93h. Similar landfall point as GFS and NOGAPS, but slightly sooner in time.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4984 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:44 am

00Z HWRF swath

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4985 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:58 am

00Z GFDL 72h point is just south of Moorehead City (whopping 67 mile shift west). Next point is inland NC, then just southeast of Hampton, VA. 96h point is southeast of York, PA (130 mile shift nearly due west. Big jump left for the GFDL.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -75.01 LAT: 23.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.98
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 24.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.19
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.65 LAT: 25.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.03
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 26.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.55
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.41 LAT: 27.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.05
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.73 LAT: 28.34 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.55
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.87 LAT: 29.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.70
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.79 LAT: 30.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.30
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.43 LAT: 30.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.29 LAT: 31.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.25
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 32.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.63
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.98 LAT: 33.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.56
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.75 LAT: 34.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.83
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.44 LAT: 35.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.33
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -76.28 LAT: 36.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.25
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.49 LAT: 38.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.44
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.62 LAT: 39.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.51
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -76.72 LAT: 41.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -76.26 LAT: 42.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.44
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -75.34 LAT: 45.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.95
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -73.74 LAT: 47.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.19
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.70 LAT: 50.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.67
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4986 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:59 am

Euro at 24 hours looks way west to me. Good grief this run will be interesting. Would need to move NE from hour 24-48 to make its 12z forecast point.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4987 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:07 am

00Z GFDL 72h

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4988 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:08 am

00Z GFDL 96h

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4989 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:09 am

00Z GFDL swatch

Image
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#4990 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:10 am

i wonder if the movement west from all these models is because of the continues western movement now or if the front just isn't as strong as predicted going forward in the time period
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4991 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:10 am

maxintensity wrote:Euro at 24 hours looks way west to me. Good grief this run will be interesting. Would need to move NE from hour 24-48 to make its 12z forecast point.

Im on my phone. So ru SURE ur readin the biggest run of nite accurately
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4992 Postby Texashawk » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:14 am

So if I'm reading that right, Irene will be.... blowing straight through Washington, DC?

:eek:

clfenwi wrote:00Z GFDL 96h

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4993 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:14 am

72 hours Euro pretty good shift west.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4994 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:18 am

96H heads basically due N and buries itself in NY

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4995 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:20 am

Max intensity can u pleeease post 24 and 48 hour euro maps
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4996 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:22 am

Texashawk wrote:So if I'm reading that right, Irene will be.... blowing straight through Washington, DC?

:eek:

clfenwi wrote:00Z GFDL 96h

(image snipped)


D.C. is 77 West, so looking at Irene passing something like 20-30 miles to the east of DC. Would be closer to Baltimore.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4997 Postby maxintensity » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:22 am

H24
Image

H48
Image
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#4998 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:24 am

Would that pile up water in the Chesapeake? In the Potomac too?
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#4999 Postby southerngale » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:25 am

Please remember to upload images and not hotlink.

You can go back and edit if you were just trying to get it posted quickly.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#5000 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:31 am

Thank u sir :) looks about 26 near 78
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