ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[perk]

Not NE shear, increased low-level flow I mentioned yesterday. Lower level winds now 25-35 kts south of the DR. That's disrupting convection. Have to wait for it to slow down by the Yucatan.

Wxman57 do you still think 90L has a chance at development.

[perk]

Don't see anything becoming of it. Next!

Like wxman57 said, we should wait until it slows down around the Yucatan. That's where develop may take place.

[tailgater]

This still has a decent low level structure that is easily seen centered over Hispanola now that there are no T-storms in the way.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, so it's not even an Invest anymore? I didn't expect development, but I also didn't expect the Invest going completely away..... Talk about obliterating into nothing.....
Moving on...........

[drezee]

It is not dead yet. It is still a match waiting for a powder keg. It may find it or it may get blown out by the Cuba mountains first.

[ConvergenceZone]

It is not dead yet. It is still a match waiting for a powder keg. It may find it or it may get blown out by the Cuba mountains first.

but at least before there was something for it to develop "from" But now that "from" seems to be just about gone.....
The mountains will probably take care of whatever is left of it at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 84.0W AT 26/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 27/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, so it's not even an Invest anymore? I didn't expect development, but I also didn't expect the Invest going completely away..... Talk about obliterating into nothing.....
Moving on...........

It's still an invest because it hasn't been deactivated in the ATCF but I guess because no models have been run since yesterday it dropped from the map.

AL, 90, 2011072412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 700W, 25, 1013, DB

[Sanibel]

If it does re-fire it will be about as big a come-back as you can get.

[jinftl]

Agree, there have been fully developed hurricanes that have succumbed to the mountains of hispanola and extended landmass of cuba...this invest had no chance since there wasn't really much in the way of organization prior to encountering these landmass obstacles.

If any remnants make it west of 80w, then we will have to see if anything is there to get going...or if it runs into another landmass again, this time the yucatan. Probably it's legacy will be just something that enhances typical afternoon thunderstorms in the greater antilles and yucatan. One of many invests to come...can't even say that it could make a comeback....that is overvaluing what it actually was/is....

It is not dead yet. It is still a match waiting for a powder keg. It may find it or it may get blown out by the Cuba mountains first.

but at least before there was something for it to develop "from" But now that "from" seems to be just about gone.....
The mountains will probably take care of whatever is left of it at the moment.

[Rgv20]

90L is still on schedule to slow down in the NW Caribbean where it will have the best shot at development during the day Tuesday.

[Rgv20]

12zNam dropped 90l after being so consistent with it. On the other hand 0zUKMET tries to close off a low in the NW Caribbean by 60hrs Tuesday July 26.

0zUKMET

[blp]

I think a couple of years ago the GFS would have been all over this. It tended to develop quite a few phantom storms, so it is interesting to see how the upgrades have changed the model. I will be curious to see if the model plays out more conservatively towards development as the season goes forward.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have been laying low for a while, just watching things come and go. This system aroused my interest some earlier this week, thinking it may have a chance even while many were thinking it was all systems go when it was just east of the islands . Have to say though it did look like it could take become at least a depression for a moment there. And of course models tracking it into the gulf. Anyway must agree with CZ this morning. Its done. Time to move on and look elsewhere. Whatever is left come tomorrow should be eaten up by Cuba next. Should bring some higher rain chances to some parts of south Texas next week, but nothing else. If it even makes it that far north. Could get pushed due west into Mexico again. Just for arguements sake maybe could still give it a < 2% chance of doing something down the road.

[HURAKAN]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

[sunnyday]

I was not surprised to see it gone from the map this morning. What's up next? Is anything out there that may develop any time soon?

[rockyman]

It's worth noting that NHC didn't drop to zero percent at 2pm

[Ivanhater]

It likes the day time

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it doesn't look that bad on satellite right now. I don't think this system's development chances are at 0% yet. It still could try to get its act together in a few days.

[BigB0882]

Of course NHC will leave it at 10%. Why put it at 0% and possibly get burned? There seems to be a small window of good conditions in a couple of days so might as well wait it out until then.