ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

she wobbled westward in the last two or three frames

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

what time is 0600z

2am eastern

isn't 12z 7 am and 6z 1 am

[HurricaneRobert]

....wow.

*saves image*

Mark Sudduth: This is a forecast map that you are not likely to see again for a long, long time:... http://t.co/B6uQsY6" ( 106200185012633601@hurricanetrack - 3m, 30s ago via Facebook )

Everyone run to the West Coast!

[phwxenthusiast]

what time is 0600z

2am eastern

isn't 12z 7 am and 6z 1 am

that's for DST

[cpdaman]

she wobbled westward in the last two or three frames

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

yup she did...it's wabbble watchin time in bahamas for sure

but i am interested to see what she does in the relatively weaker steering flow over next 24 hours....imagine if she went back to like a 275-280 heading...i mean may not make much difference...but the board would perk up for sure

i'm more interested in seeing what the gfs does with the depth /heights in thursdays NE trough and the associated bermuda high ridging

EDIT looks like she "wobbled" west again at 315 utc

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

Is it just me or does it look like the trough off South Carolina is trying to produce a cut-off low? I don't believe that was forecast by any of the models....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[CronkPSU]

i know i can probably google this but do we have to worry about satellite eclipses/blackouts any more at night? haven't seen anyone mention them this year

[HurricaneWarning92]

how could that affect the track?

[RL3AO]

what time is 0600z

2am eastern

isn't 12z 7 am and 6z 1 am

In central time zone now and eastern timezone in the winter.

[Bocadude85]

Is it just me or does it look like the trough off South Carolina is trying to produce a cut-off low? I don't believe that was forecast by any of the models....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

I noticed that earlier... not sure what is going on there..

[CronkPSU]

Is it just me or does it look like the trough off South Carolina is trying to produce a cut-off low? I don't believe that was forecast by any of the models....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

i'll gladly play the newbie...what do you think that means if your hunch is right?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240330
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 36 20110824
032000 2055N 07229W 6958 02950 9767 +125 //// 310069 073 064 002 01
032030 2056N 07228W 6983 02901 9733 +140 +124 308057 060 059 000 03
032100 2058N 07227W 6960 02919 9715 +144 +116 308051 053 047 001 00
032130 2059N 07227W 6966 02903 9704 +143 +114 306047 051 029 002 03
032200 2101N 07226W 6973 02878 9684 +152 +107 305040 043 026 000 00
032230 2102N 07225W 6966 02879 9671 +153 +102 306033 034 020 001 03
032300 2104N 07224W 6966 02872 9658 +160 +094 305024 029 007 000 00
032330 2105N 07223W 6970 02860 9659 +154 +107 326009 012 000 000 03
032400 2107N 07222W 6966 02863 9658 +152 +110 025008 009 000 002 03
032430 2108N 07221W 6967 02863 9658 +151 +110 079012 013 000 001 03
032500 2110N 07220W 6966 02863 9655 +155 +105 091018 020 008 000 00
032530 2111N 07219W 6967 02867 9656 +159 +098 103023 023 /// /// 03
032600 2111N 07218W 6965 02866 9664 +149 +105 115020 023 /// /// 03
032630 2109N 07218W 6963 02864 9665 +143 +103 121015 017 000 001 03
032700 2108N 07219W 6970 02856 9666 +141 +106 140006 009 002 001 03
032730 2108N 07219W 6970 02856 9667 +141 +117 042001 004 000 002 03
032800 2106N 07222W 6965 02870 9657 +158 +105 347008 010 /// /// 03
032830 2108N 07223W 6969 02867 9652 +164 +095 026010 012 /// /// 03
032900 2109N 07222W 6967 02858 9654 +157 +103 065011 012 000 001 03
032930 2109N 07220W 6963 02862 9664 +143 +105 101012 014 001 002 03
$$
;

Pressure 965mb.

[Dave]

[NDG]

Looks like Irene's latest fix is still closer to 21.1N not 21.3N like the 11PM advisory had estimated her center to be.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like it's about to really explode, to me.

respectfully i don't think she's ready yet

lets get her 100 miles NW from here so she gets a nice southerly inflow ...that is'nt comin off 8000 foot mountains

i realize she isn't on hispanola ..but irene is a big girl and needs her space to go to town IMO

I agree with you. Look at this latest image. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg Looks like she has multiple eyes now, as she must be entraining some dry air into the core...That's also why they kept it at 90 MPH probably...

[cpdaman]

wouldn't it just keep a weakness in place so to speak? or keep the ridging from getting far enough west ...i would think it would be aiding a MISS in n.c

[SouthDadeFish]

Is it just me or does it look like the trough off South Carolina is trying to produce a cut-off low? I don't believe that was forecast by any of the models....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

i'll gladly play the newbie...what do you think that means if your hunch is right?

Well if it is a cut-off low it all depends on the track it takes. It is possible it prevents the ridge from building as far westward and induces a more easterly track. But, don't take my word for it, because I'm not even sure if it will cut-off. (This is far from a professional forecast )

[eastcoastFL]

I was just looking at the same thing trying to figure out what that is. Also looking at the massive size of irene, tomorrow afternoon we will start to get some thick cloud cover here. I do like watching those thick clouds spin.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah I'm still in the camp of dry air hindering development. The dry air was very evident earlier today on TPW, but when I said that I had many who disagreed with me

It does now look like she is slowly mixing out the dry air:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

In my opinion I would give her six more hours before we start to see some real intensification begin.