ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow didn't know NWS off offices in FL were issuing hurricane local statements. They normally only do this usually when theres already a watch or warning in effect for the coast but looks like in this case they're doing it beforehand. Sounds like they are concerned and watching the more westward track as of late and this was issued just a little over an hr ago I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Tropical storm warnings go up for the east-central FL coast.

Full statement
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMLB.shtml

Here are portions of the statement I find interesting

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1218 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THOUGH THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF IRENE WELL
OFFSHORE...YOU SHOULD STILL REMAIN AWARE OF THIS LARGE HURRICANE
AND BE PREPARED THAT TROPICAL STORM GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS
STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

[Macrocane]

The winds just arent picking up with the pressure drop as of yet

That's why it reminds me to Ike, a big hurricane with a ragged eye and a pressure that has fallen but winds have not picked up, I guess the pressure has dropped because its large size anyway there's no doubt that it has become better organized so the winds should pick up sooner than later.

[Dave]

[anarchiver19]

I'm wondering when I'll make it back home to Va Beach from northern NJ. On the NJ Tpke now, headed to my brother's wedding on Fri with plans to return home on Sunday. Irene could make this a very interesting return trip

[Battlebrick]

when was the last time you saw a category one hurricane with a pressure of 966 mb?

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 18

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 72°29'W (21.2333N 72.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the W (260°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 91kts (From the NE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 240531
XXAA 74057 99212 70725 08012 99966 27409 09506 00804 ///// /////
92389 24603 12004 85132 21607 11003 70803 14632 30502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80509
61616 AF302 1109A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2125N07250W 0513 MBL WND 11004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 10
504 966697 WL150 09505 084 REL 2125N07249W 050937 SPG 2125N07250W
051314 =
XXBB 74058 99212 70725 08012 00966 27409 11850 21607 22766 17006
33744 17637 44709 16032 55697 14032
21212 00966 09506 11850 11003 22697 28003
31313 09608 80509
61616 AF302 1109A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 2125N07250W 0513 MBL WND 11004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 10
504 966697 WL150 09505 084 REL 2125N07249W 050937 SPG 2125N07250W
051314 =
;

[WxGuy1]

Considering the decreasing minimum central pressure and the improved satellite appearance, I'd expect that the winds will increase more steadily and quickly than they have the past 24 hours (well, the peak winds have remained relatively steady the past day in the Cat 1 / lower-end Cat 2 range). As others have noted, the water is warm (30-30.5 C sea-surface temperature), the influence of significant land areas is diminishing, and organization has increased with the appearance of an eye. The primary "cons" that I see for rapid intensification are (1) some dry air evident in precipitable water imagery (<40 mm or <1.5" PW isn't very impressive moisture) to the northwest of Irene at this time and (2) moderate 10-20 kts wind shear. We've seen evidence in visible satellite data of that dry air earlier today, when numerous outflow boundaries propagated westward/outward from the northwest side of Irene.

[Sanibel]

If my memory is correct some of those 2005 Gulf storms had unusually low winds for their pressures.

[Dave]

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Dave]

857
URNT15 KNHC 240541
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 49 20110824
053000 2028N 07139W 6970 03097 9996 +088 +082 211045 045 037 000 00
053030 2026N 07138W 6967 03102 0002 +084 //// 214044 045 035 000 01
053100 2025N 07136W 6968 03103 0002 +085 +084 213044 044 034 000 00
053130 2024N 07135W 6968 03105 0002 +089 +078 208043 044 031 000 00
053200 2022N 07134W 6967 03106 0000 +091 +068 209042 042 031 000 00
053230 2021N 07132W 6969 03107 0004 +089 +072 210041 042 031 000 00
053300 2020N 07131W 6969 03106 0010 +085 +076 211042 043 031 000 00
053330 2018N 07130W 6967 03110 0009 +087 +074 214044 044 026 001 00
053400 2017N 07128W 6970 03107 0006 +091 +073 213045 045 027 000 00
053430 2016N 07127W 6959 03120 0002 +094 +069 212045 045 026 001 00
053500 2014N 07125W 6974 03104 0002 +095 +075 214044 045 026 000 00
053530 2013N 07124W 6970 03108 0008 +090 +079 213042 043 023 000 00
053600 2011N 07122W 6972 03109 0011 +090 +075 212044 045 023 000 00
053630 2010N 07121W 6967 03116 0010 +091 +075 213043 044 024 000 00
053700 2008N 07119W 6971 03109 0012 +089 //// 214043 044 021 001 01
053730 2007N 07118W 6974 03110 0019 +084 //// 213042 042 016 002 01
053800 2005N 07116W 6967 03120 0021 +084 //// 215043 044 007 002 01
053830 2004N 07115W 6964 03126 0009 +096 +085 216041 041 001 000 00
053900 2003N 07113W 6970 03120 0015 +092 +087 215041 042 000 000 00
053930 2001N 07112W 6967 03125 0022 +090 +082 215040 040 000 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 240540
97779 05374 40201 71309 30400 21043 0909/ /3077
RMK AF302 1109A IRENE OB 20
SWS = 19 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

Mission over...G'night!

[supercane]

WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[CronkPSU]

back to a cat 2...100 mph, 966 mb

[bahamaswx]

A 30 mile wobble probably means the difference between a 4' storm surge and a 14' storm surge for me. I don't want to see any southerly winds into my southward-facing bay! Keeping a close eye on her overnight, and making a decision on where to ride it out in the morning when conditions will probably be starting to deteriorate.

[CronkPSU]

moved due west .2 degrees according to NHC since 11 PM

[eastcoastFL]

i saw .4 but they are the pros not me. anyhow latest frame was confusing couldnt tell if it was a north jump or if the eye just squeezed a bit

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm wondering when I'll make it back home to Va Beach from northern NJ. On the NJ Tpke now, headed to my brother's wedding on Fri with plans to return home on Sunday. Irene could make this a very interesting return trip

Just don't plan on taking the bridge-tunnel! You'll probably have to go home the long way.

P.S. Also, I'm sorry you're on the NJ Turnpike. I feel for you.

[NC George]

Im not the least bit worried about a landfall, but every bit closer it moves west it increases out chances of getting TS force winds and we have no watches up.

You are really worried about tropical storm force winds with no posted warnings? Really?