ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[MGC]

Looks to be wraping up as the convection is starting to fill in the northern sector of the storm....odds are increasing that Arlene makes hurricane intensity......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be wraping up as the convection is starting to fill in the northern sector of the storm....odds are increasing that Arlene makes hurricane intensity......MGC

The Recon plane missed the center as it is about 40-50 miles east-northeast of the 4 pm advisory estimate. The corrected center location means that it has several more hours over water as well.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Can't stay, just posting one image. Through OB 17.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292110
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 18 20110629
210030 2101N 09558W 9666 00294 //// +227 //// 329022 022 025 010 01
210100 2101N 09557W 9665 00295 //// +225 //// 334021 023 035 022 05
210130 2101N 09555W 9670 00288 //// +205 //// 328020 021 042 022 01
210200 2102N 09553W 9668 00289 //// +224 //// 326020 021 029 017 05
210230 2102N 09552W 9664 00293 //// +237 //// 327020 021 020 007 01
210300 2103N 09550W 9663 00292 //// +240 //// 327022 023 017 005 01
210330 2104N 09549W 9664 00289 //// +239 //// 325021 021 012 005 01
210400 2105N 09547W 9667 00285 //// +241 //// 324023 023 020 002 05
210430 2106N 09546W 9663 00289 //// +241 //// 324022 022 017 003 01
210500 2107N 09545W 9665 00285 //// +238 //// 328020 021 018 004 01
210530 2107N 09543W 9662 00287 //// +235 //// 325015 017 011 005 01
210600 2108N 09542W 9662 00285 //// +231 //// 318009 009 008 005 05
210630 2110N 09541W 9665 00282 //// +230 //// 327007 008 002 006 05
210700 2111N 09540W 9662 00283 //// +230 //// 323005 006 004 006 05
210730 2111N 09538W 9665 00279 //// +232 //// 317007 008 003 006 05
210800 2112N 09537W 9663 00280 //// +236 //// 315007 008 005 005 05
210830 2113N 09536W 9666 00276 //// +238 //// 309007 008 001 004 05
210900 2115N 09535W 9666 00274 //// +240 //// 309008 009 001 005 05
210930 2116N 09533W 9664 00273 //// +243 //// 293009 009 008 004 05
211000 2117N 09532W 9666 00270 //// +243 //// 292008 008 000 004 05
$$
;

Turning back to fix the real center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292120
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 19 20110629
211030 2118N 09531W 9664 00270 //// +236 //// 282006 006 006 004 05
211100 2120N 09531W 9664 00270 //// +233 //// 263004 004 007 005 05
211130 2121N 09530W 9665 00268 //// +232 //// 260002 003 011 006 05
211200 2122N 09529W 9663 00268 //// +231 //// 174001 003 010 005 01
211230 2122N 09529W 9663 00268 //// +233 //// 122004 005 005 005 05
211300 2124N 09526W 9655 00273 //// +234 //// 119002 004 /// /// 05
211330 2123N 09526W 9665 00262 //// +235 //// 344001 003 /// /// 05
211400 2122N 09527W 9662 00266 //// +235 //// 320005 007 000 004 05
211430 2120N 09528W 9664 00264 //// +235 //// 304008 010 004 004 05
211500 2119N 09529W 9667 00264 //// +236 //// 296012 013 011 005 05
211530 2118N 09531W 9665 00268 //// +235 //// 298012 013 004 005 05
211600 2117N 09532W 9664 00271 //// +239 //// 304013 014 003 004 05
211630 2116N 09533W 9666 00270 //// +248 //// 307014 015 007 006 05
211700 2115N 09534W 9663 00276 //// +246 //// 309014 014 005 004 05
211730 2114N 09535W 9664 00276 //// +240 //// 311013 013 000 004 05
211800 2113N 09537W 9664 00279 //// +238 //// 310013 013 000 005 05
211830 2112N 09538W 9663 00280 //// +235 //// 316013 014 008 005 05
211900 2111N 09539W 9664 00281 //// +234 //// 323012 015 000 006 05
211930 2110N 09540W 9668 00278 //// +234 //// 320012 014 010 003 05
212000 2109N 09541W 9662 00285 //// +233 //// 327014 014 006 004 05
$$
;

Center at 21.4N 95.4W. Based on calculations from the last mission, a rough pressure estimate is 997mb.

[OuterBanker]

The GFS beat the ECM, JB the GFS basher will not be happy.

I miss him, but he still doesn't offer enough to pay for his site.

[Portastorm]

I seem to recall some chatter in years past that the GFS erodes ridges, especially in the western part of the Atlantic basin, too fast. Wonder if that is still the case.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292130
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 20 20110629
212030 2107N 09543W 9665 00282 //// +235 //// 328018 019 008 003 05
212100 2106N 09544W 9664 00286 //// +236 //// 332023 025 012 005 05
212130 2105N 09545W 9666 00286 //// +241 //// 329027 028 016 005 05
212200 2104N 09546W 9667 00287 //// +238 //// 327025 025 012 007 05
212230 2103N 09548W 9665 00289 //// +237 //// 324024 024 009 007 05
212300 2102N 09549W 9665 00290 //// +240 //// 321022 024 007 006 05
212330 2101N 09550W 9664 00292 //// +240 //// 325022 023 011 006 05
212400 2100N 09551W 9663 00296 //// +237 //// 320022 022 017 008 05
212430 2059N 09552W 9667 00293 //// +226 //// 320022 023 024 010 05
212500 2057N 09554W 9663 00296 //// +210 //// 325023 024 032 012 01
212530 2056N 09555W 9667 00294 //// +205 //// 330022 023 041 021 05
212600 2055N 09556W 9661 00300 //// +211 //// 337022 023 032 014 05
212630 2054N 09557W 9666 00297 //// +217 //// 343021 022 028 013 05
212700 2053N 09559W 9663 00300 //// +215 //// 352018 021 026 012 05
212730 2052N 09600W 9668 00296 //// +233 //// 343018 020 005 008 05
212800 2051N 09601W 9659 00304 //// +232 //// 344015 017 004 010 05
212830 2050N 09603W 9660 00303 //// +234 //// 343016 021 000 009 05
212900 2049N 09604W 9664 00302 //// +235 //// 328021 023 003 006 05
212930 2048N 09605W 9676 00290 //// +235 //// 323022 022 /// /// 05
213000 2047N 09606W 9658 00308 //// +233 //// 327023 023 007 007 05
$$
;

Returning to original flight plan adjusted for the correct center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 292125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/21:11:20Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
095 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm
F. 163 deg 64 kt
G. 021 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 396 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292140
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 21 20110629
213030 2045N 09607W 9667 00300 //// +232 //// 328021 022 009 007 05
213100 2044N 09608W 9664 00304 //// +229 //// 332020 021 016 009 05
213130 2043N 09609W 9663 00306 //// +230 //// 335021 022 014 008 05
213200 2042N 09611W 9663 00308 //// +232 //// 332022 024 011 008 05
213230 2041N 09612W 9664 00306 //// +236 //// 328025 026 010 008 01
213300 2040N 09613W 9663 00309 //// +218 //// 327024 025 026 017 05
213330 2038N 09614W 9672 00302 //// +202 //// 304034 036 033 012 05
213400 2037N 09615W 9657 00315 //// +214 //// 307037 038 031 011 05
213430 2036N 09616W 9665 00309 //// +231 //// 310035 037 033 008 05
213500 2035N 09618W 9667 00309 //// +234 //// 314036 040 039 010 05
213530 2034N 09619W 9675 00299 //// +198 //// 312044 050 062 032 05
213600 2033N 09620W 9641 00338 //// +193 //// 297039 044 061 055 05
213630 2032N 09621W 9668 00312 //// +196 //// 287043 044 045 049 05
213700 2031N 09622W 9666 00314 //// +217 //// 287044 045 037 024 05
213730 2030N 09623W 9666 00313 //// +224 //// 284044 046 037 010 05
213800 2029N 09624W 9664 00317 //// +223 //// 283044 045 035 006 01
213830 2028N 09625W 9662 00319 //// +226 //// 283044 044 033 007 05
213900 2027N 09626W 9669 00314 //// +226 //// 283041 042 035 006 05
213930 2027N 09627W 9669 00315 //// +223 //// 281041 043 037 007 05
214000 2026N 09628W 9656 00327 //// +222 //// 280042 044 039 004 05
$$
;

[linkerweather]

The GFS has successfully forecast 20 of the last 10 named storms.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 292125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/21:11:20Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
095 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 66 kt
E. 017 deg 45 nm
F. 163 deg 64 kt
G. 021 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 396 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS
;

Decoded VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:11:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°20'N 95°30'W (21.3333N 95.5W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the ESE (112°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 163° at 64kts (From the SSE at ~ 73.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 20:26:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292150
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 22 20110629
214030 2025N 09629W 9656 00328 //// +220 //// 280041 042 033 005 05
214100 2024N 09630W 9667 00318 //// +220 //// 279041 042 031 006 05
214130 2023N 09631W 9664 00323 //// +220 //// 279041 041 029 007 05
214200 2022N 09632W 9665 00322 //// +221 //// 280040 041 031 006 05
214230 2021N 09633W 9670 00319 //// +220 //// 278041 041 024 007 05
214300 2019N 09632W 9665 00322 //// +220 //// 274042 043 /// /// 05
214330 2020N 09630W 9672 00317 //// +220 //// 273043 044 033 005 05
214400 2019N 09628W 9665 00322 //// +221 //// 273045 045 031 008 01
214430 2019N 09626W 9664 00322 //// +220 //// 272044 044 034 007 01
214500 2019N 09624W 9666 00319 //// +219 //// 271044 045 035 007 05
214530 2019N 09622W 9663 00321 //// +212 //// 269043 044 038 007 01
214600 2019N 09620W 9661 00321 //// +214 //// 271046 047 036 009 05
214630 2018N 09618W 9666 00316 //// +217 //// 273047 048 038 011 05
214700 2018N 09616W 9665 00316 //// +218 //// 271048 049 037 013 05
214730 2018N 09614W 9662 00320 //// +208 //// 270049 050 040 016 05
214800 2017N 09612W 9665 00315 //// +202 //// 271050 052 041 019 05
214830 2017N 09610W 9664 00317 //// +194 //// 272049 050 050 020 05
214900 2017N 09608W 9665 00315 //// +193 //// 271049 051 048 020 05
214930 2017N 09605W 9655 00321 //// +199 //// 266049 050 046 012 01
215000 2016N 09603W 9662 00317 //// +199 //// 264048 049 041 017 05
$$
;

[brunota2003]

So...because the winds were convectively induced, what does that mean?

[CrazyC83]

So...because the winds were convectively induced, what does that mean?

Not sure? I guess they think that they are unrepresentative? I would disagree...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292200
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 23 20110629
215030 2016N 09601W 9668 00311 //// +192 //// 266048 049 054 029 05
215100 2016N 09559W 9664 00314 //// +190 //// 261048 050 053 023 01
215130 2016N 09557W 9660 00317 //// +194 //// 258047 048 044 016 05
215200 2015N 09555W 9661 00318 //// +193 //// 255048 049 047 009 05
215230 2015N 09553W 9671 00308 //// +195 //// 252047 048 045 010 05
215300 2015N 09551W 9660 00319 //// +198 //// 249045 046 045 009 05
215330 2015N 09549W 9666 00315 //// +197 //// 245043 045 044 015 05
215400 2014N 09547W 9658 00322 //// +195 //// 242044 044 045 017 05
215430 2014N 09545W 9658 00323 //// +193 //// 238043 044 045 016 05
215500 2014N 09544W 9659 00321 //// +193 //// 235042 043 045 016 05
215530 2014N 09542W 9667 00316 //// +190 //// 231039 040 046 018 05
215600 2013N 09540W 9660 00320 //// +188 //// 230038 041 043 017 05
215630 2013N 09538W 9662 00321 //// +189 //// 224038 040 037 012 01
215700 2013N 09536W 9668 00317 //// +195 //// 222039 040 037 011 05
215730 2013N 09534W 9658 00327 //// +201 //// 225040 041 041 012 05
215800 2013N 09533W 9662 00324 //// +209 //// 225037 038 037 009 01
215830 2012N 09531W 9664 00324 //// +213 //// 222035 036 036 009 05
215900 2012N 09529W 9662 00326 //// +219 //// 219034 035 038 008 05
215930 2012N 09527W 9662 00328 //// +220 //// 218032 033 038 006 05
220000 2012N 09525W 9664 00327 //// +220 //// 219033 033 036 008 05
$$
;

Heading into the SE quad. 53 kt strongest winds in SW quad.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

So...because the winds were convectively induced, what does that mean?

Not sure? I guess they think that they are unrepresentative? I would disagree...

I am sure that before the 7 PM advisory,they will make another pass and hopefully,things are more clear.

[CrazyC83]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 292210
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 24 20110629
220030 2011N 09524W 9663 00328 //// +220 //// 218031 032 037 006 01
220100 2011N 09522W 9664 00331 //// +218 //// 214030 032 037 007 05
220130 2011N 09520W 9658 00333 //// +220 //// 216030 031 034 009 05
220200 2011N 09518W 9671 00323 //// +219 //// 209029 030 036 009 05
220230 2010N 09517W 9662 00332 //// +220 //// 211029 030 036 009 05
220300 2010N 09515W 9671 00325 //// +210 //// 212030 030 042 012 05
220330 2010N 09513W 9664 00332 //// +204 //// 218031 033 040 024 05
220400 2010N 09511W 9662 00335 //// +204 //// 224033 033 043 019 05
220430 2010N 09510W 9665 00331 //// +219 //// 229033 033 041 011 05
220500 2009N 09508W 9667 00330 //// +223 //// 230033 033 039 012 01
220530 2009N 09506W 9666 00332 //// +225 //// 225034 035 035 011 05
220600 2009N 09504W 9663 00333 //// +222 //// 223034 034 036 011 05
220630 2009N 09502W 9664 00333 //// +220 //// 224032 033 034 012 01
220700 2008N 09501W 9663 00333 //// +225 //// 223034 035 038 009 05
220730 2008N 09459W 9666 00333 //// +220 //// 223030 032 033 012 05
220800 2008N 09457W 9659 00340 //// +213 //// 224025 027 033 015 05
220830 2008N 09455W 9667 00334 //// +210 //// 223023 023 032 014 05
220900 2007N 09453W 9669 00334 //// +215 //// 214020 020 025 013 05
220930 2007N 09452W 9664 00338 //// +218 //// 209019 020 023 011 01
221000 2007N 09450W 9666 00337 //// +217 //// 207020 020 021 012 05
$$
;

[HURAKAN]