ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Rgv20]

Unless that High over Kansas accelerates east during the next 24hrs, Bret is still on schedule to go northeastward in 24-36hrs.

[Recurve]

FYI -- They've taken off, heading east near Pascagoula.

[Aric Dunn]

Unless that High over Kansas accelerates east during the next 24hrs, Bret is still on schedule to go northeastward in 24-36hrs.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 0_036m.png

only if the Ridge to SE strengthens ... otherwise.. a southerly drift or little motion at all is likely. check the steering..

[artist]

FYI -- They've taken off, heading east near Pascagoula.

thank you, aren't they early?
I can post the obs for awhile, but can't do the images. Can't get google earth to download again to my computer.

[HurricaneBrain]

Was not expecting Bret to accelerate this far south. Might need to watch this!

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180255
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 03 20110718
024530 3028N 08830W 5174 05661 0341 -030 //// 138014 015 /// /// 05
024600 3028N 08828W 5033 05885 0360 -041 //// 124013 013 /// /// 05
024630 3028N 08825W 4927 06049 0369 -052 //// 104011 012 /// /// 05
024700 3028N 08823W 4815 06238 0387 -064 //// 087011 012 /// /// 05
024730 3028N 08821W 4722 06391 0398 -073 //// 077010 011 /// /// 05
024800 3028N 08819W 4631 06541 0408 -086 //// 072009 009 /// /// 05
024830 3028N 08817W 4522 06724 0417 -096 //// 069013 014 /// /// 05
024900 3029N 08815W 4428 06882 0424 -106 //// 056020 024 /// /// 05
024930 3029N 08812W 4324 07067 0437 -109 //// 054023 024 /// /// 05
025000 3029N 08810W 4259 07182 0444 -117 //// 060020 020 /// /// 05
025030 3029N 08808W 4182 07319 0453 -126 //// 071020 021 /// /// 05
025100 3029N 08806W 4112 07453 0463 -137 //// 078020 020 /// /// 05
025130 3029N 08803W 4094 07485 0467 -139 //// 076020 020 /// /// 05
025200 3029N 08801W 4097 07481 0467 -136 //// 075019 019 /// /// 05
025230 3029N 08758W 4100 07480 0469 -139 //// 079018 018 /// /// 05
025300 3029N 08756W 4099 07479 0468 -139 //// 080017 017 /// /// 05
025330 3029N 08753W 4099 07477 0467 -140 //// 079017 017 /// /// 05
025400 3029N 08751W 4100 07479 0469 -139 //// 075018 018 /// /// 05
025430 3029N 08748W 4099 07479 0468 -140 //// 073017 017 /// /// 05
025500 3029N 08745W 4103 07467 0465 -136 //// 070017 017 /// /// 05
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Dry air is really starting to push towards Bret. I'm not sold on him strengthening too much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[Recurve]

I've got it on google earth, but I should be in bed by the time they get near it, about 2 hours to go I'd say.

[Raininfyr]

This is reminding me of Katrina with how it was supposed to start taking off to the North and it kept going South and West and finally the tracks were greatly shifted West. Tomorrow should tell us a lot more.

Not too concerned with the projected path at this point in the game. Will be interesting to see what happens overnight.

[Rgv20]

Unless that High over Kansas accelerates east during the next 24hrs, Bret is still on schedule to go northeastward in 24-36hrs.

only if the Ridge to SE strengthens ... otherwise.. a southerly drift or little motion at all is likely. check the steering..

I have checked the steering and it still points to a NE movement starting tomorrow albeit a slow one.

[Recurve]

some convection wrapping around the center, I think, hard to tell from the long range Melbourne radar.

The plane is in the air, heading east across MS.

[ozonepete]

Unless that High over Kansas accelerates east during the next 24hrs, Bret is still on schedule to go northeastward in 24-36hrs.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 0_036m.png

Right. But the outside chance is that the central U.S. High shifts a little further east and merges with the Bermuda High, producing more of a pronounced easterly 500 mb flow over Bret. Not likely, but it's too early to say, and the further south Bret goes, the more likely the weakness north of it could close off before it can move into it.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180305
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 04 20110718
025530 3030N 08742W 4099 07479 0468 -137 //// 072017 017 /// /// 05
025600 3030N 08740W 4099 07477 0468 -134 //// 073017 017 /// /// 05
025630 3030N 08737W 4098 07480 0468 -135 //// 073017 018 /// /// 05
025700 3030N 08734W 4098 07479 0468 -133 //// 076015 017 /// /// 05
025730 3030N 08732W 4099 07479 0469 -130 //// 078013 014 /// /// 05
025800 3030N 08729W 4098 07479 0468 -134 //// 078014 015 /// /// 05
025830 3030N 08726W 4098 07480 0468 -135 //// 076014 015 /// /// 05
025900 3030N 08724W 4098 07479 0468 -135 //// 077014 014 /// /// 05
025930 3030N 08721W 4098 07481 0469 -134 //// 081012 013 /// /// 05
030000 3030N 08718W 4098 07482 0470 -133 //// 085010 010 /// /// 05
030030 3030N 08716W 4101 07480 0470 -135 //// 072012 014 /// /// 05
030100 3030N 08713W 4098 07481 0469 -140 //// 066014 014 /// /// 05
030130 3031N 08710W 4099 07479 0469 -139 //// 069014 014 /// /// 05
030200 3031N 08707W 4099 07480 0469 -140 //// 069015 015 /// /// 05
030230 3031N 08705W 4098 07480 0468 -140 //// 067015 015 /// /// 05
030300 3031N 08702W 4099 07479 0469 -140 //// 068014 014 /// /// 05
030330 3031N 08659W 4099 07480 0469 -140 //// 069013 013 /// /// 05
030400 3031N 08657W 4098 07480 0469 -140 //// 070012 013 /// /// 05
030430 3031N 08654W 4101 07456 0452 -140 //// 068011 012 /// /// 05
030500 3031N 08651W 4099 07459 0448 -140 //// 066011 012 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Rgv20]

That is true there is always a chance that something could go terribly wrong when your trying to forecast tropical weather haha. Anyways in my opinion chances of Bret going west are really slim only time will tell.

[artist]

Florida panhandle now

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180325
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 06 20110718
031530 3028N 08555W 4098 07456 0445 -146 //// 050016 016 /// /// 05
031600 3027N 08552W 4100 07454 0445 -146 //// 051017 017 /// /// 05
031630 3026N 08549W 4098 07455 0446 -149 //// 049016 016 /// /// 05
031700 3026N 08547W 4098 07455 0445 -150 //// 048016 016 /// /// 05
031730 3025N 08544W 4099 07454 0444 -150 //// 046015 015 /// /// 05
031800 3024N 08541W 4099 07453 0442 -150 //// 047014 015 /// /// 05
031830 3024N 08539W 4099 07453 0443 -150 //// 050012 013 /// /// 05
031900 3023N 08536W 4098 07454 0443 -150 //// 048013 013 /// /// 05
031930 3022N 08533W 4101 07450 0442 -150 //// 051014 014 /// /// 05
032000 3022N 08531W 4098 07455 0443 -145 //// 054014 015 /// /// 05
032030 3021N 08528W 4098 07454 0442 -150 //// 053013 013 /// /// 05
032100 3020N 08526W 4099 07453 0442 -148 //// 055013 014 /// /// 05
032130 3020N 08523W 4098 07455 0442 -149 //// 057013 014 /// /// 05
032200 3019N 08520W 4101 07449 0442 -145 //// 062014 014 /// /// 05
032230 3018N 08518W 4096 07459 0443 -145 //// 061012 013 /// /// 05
032300 3018N 08515W 4099 07453 0442 -148 //// 065010 011 /// /// 05
032330 3017N 08512W 4101 07450 0442 -146 //// 061011 011 /// /// 05
032400 3016N 08510W 4098 07454 0443 -145 //// 059012 012 /// /// 05
032430 3015N 08507W 4098 07454 0442 -145 //// 058011 011 /// /// 05
032500 3015N 08505W 4099 07451 0442 -145 //// 062011 011 /// /// 05
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Agreed.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180345
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 08 20110718
033530 3000N 08410W 4103 07462 0459 -155 //// 063011 012 /// /// 05
033600 2959N 08407W 4099 07445 0439 -155 //// 076011 012 /// /// 05
033630 2959N 08405W 4102 07440 0435 -155 //// 078013 013 /// /// 05
033700 2958N 08402W 4097 07451 0436 -155 //// 079014 014 /// /// 05
033730 2957N 08400W 4099 07445 0435 -155 //// 076013 014 /// /// 05
033800 2957N 08357W 4099 07445 0435 -155 //// 071014 015 /// /// 05
033830 2956N 08355W 4098 07446 0435 -155 //// 072014 014 /// /// 05
033900 2955N 08352W 4099 07444 0434 -155 //// 074013 014 /// /// 05
033930 2955N 08349W 4099 07443 0433 -155 //// 072013 014 /// /// 05
034000 2954N 08347W 4101 07439 0432 -155 //// 070014 014 /// /// 05
034030 2953N 08344W 4099 07443 0432 -155 //// 070014 015 /// /// 05
034100 2952N 08342W 4095 07446 0431 -155 //// 066016 017 /// /// 05
034130 2952N 08339W 4102 07435 0430 -154 //// 064017 017 /// /// 05
034200 2951N 08337W 4098 07443 0430 -155 //// 064016 017 /// /// 05
034230 2950N 08334W 4099 07439 0430 -155 //// 063016 017 /// /// 05
034300 2950N 08331W 4098 07443 0429 -155 //// 062017 017 /// /// 05
034330 2949N 08329W 4099 07438 0429 -152 //// 061018 018 /// /// 05
034400 2948N 08326W 4098 07441 0429 -151 //// 060018 018 /// /// 05
034430 2947N 08324W 4101 07436 0429 -150 //// 058018 019 /// /// 05
034500 2947N 08321W 4097 07442 0429 -154 //// 059017 018 /// /// 05
$$
;

over Apalachee Bay

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: That is true there is always a chance that something could go terribly wrong when your trying to forecast tropical weather haha. Anyways in my opinion chances of Bret going west are really slim only time will tell.

Exactly. They got a mind of their own.

[ROCK]

lets all remember IKE as it raced SW and missed the weakness....the EURO sniffed it out and prevailed as all the other models had it going up the spine of FL....

Bret gets too far south and it will miss the weakness....I might have to stay up for the EURO tonight with Ivan...