ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

107
URNT15 KNHC 241222
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 21 20110824
121230 2057N 07404W 6963 03095 //// +097 //// 291037 037 /// /// 05
121300 2057N 07402W 6967 03090 //// +100 //// 290038 038 /// /// 05
121330 2056N 07401W 6967 03090 //// +098 //// 288037 037 /// /// 05
121400 2055N 07359W 6967 03090 //// +102 //// 285037 037 /// /// 05
121430 2054N 07357W 6967 03091 //// +105 //// 281038 039 /// /// 05
121500 2053N 07355W 6963 03096 //// +102 //// 279040 040 /// /// 05
121530 2052N 07353W 6972 03084 //// +102 //// 279039 040 /// /// 05
121600 2051N 07352W 6963 03098 //// +105 //// 273041 041 /// /// 05
121630 2050N 07350W 6967 03093 //// +105 //// 272041 041 /// /// 05
121700 2049N 07348W 6967 03093 //// +102 //// 271041 041 /// /// 05
121730 2048N 07346W 6968 03094 //// +099 //// 271041 041 /// /// 05
121800 2047N 07344W 6969 03092 //// +095 //// 267040 040 /// /// 05
121830 2046N 07343W 6962 03101 //// +094 //// 266039 040 /// /// 05
121900 2045N 07341W 6970 03092 //// +095 //// 261037 037 /// /// 05
121930 2044N 07339W 6966 03099 //// +093 //// 260036 037 /// /// 05
122000 2044N 07337W 6966 03099 //// +095 //// 260036 037 /// /// 05
122030 2043N 07336W 6970 03092 //// +096 //// 260036 037 /// /// 05
122100 2042N 07334W 6966 03099 //// +092 //// 262039 040 /// /// 05
122130 2041N 07332W 6969 03094 //// +091 //// 262038 039 /// /// 05
122200 2040N 07330W 6970 03096 //// +098 //// 262037 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[sandyb]

in golf terms, today is the real moving day, all of us look to see that NNW movement happen about mid-day, good luck to all of you in the mid-Atlantic, hope it stays off shore

thanks might stay east of us here in carteret county but not going to depend on that until it has pasted us

[littlevince]

[RL3AO]

389
URNT15 KWBC 241223
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 25 20110824
121330 2228N 07449W 7526 02470 0003 +136 +100 027047 049 044 001 00
121400 2226N 07451W 7528 02468 0004 +137 +093 027047 049 043 002 00
121430 2224N 07452W 7525 02469 9997 +142 +086 025046 047 044 001 00
121500 2222N 07453W 7528 02465 9998 +142 +085 026048 048 044 001 00
121530 2220N 07454W 7530 02465 9999 +142 +086 025050 050 043 001 00
121600 2218N 07456W 7528 02469 0002 +140 +087 026047 049 043 000 00
121630 2216N 07457W 7532 02465 0003 +140 +093 027046 047 040 002 00
121700 2214N 07458W 7520 02478 0009 +134 +093 020045 047 038 004 00
121730 2212N 07500W 7520 02481 0009 +136 +088 018045 047 038 000 00
121800 2210N 07501W 7516 02485 0008 +138 +077 016045 046 038 001 00
121830 2208N 07502W 7517 02483 0008 +137 +081 017044 044 038 001 03
121900 2205N 07502W 7520 02479 0007 +137 +085 014046 046 /// /// 03
121930 2204N 07500W 7520 02478 0006 +138 +082 009044 045 033 000 00
122000 2204N 07458W 7516 02479 9998 +142 +081 007043 044 035 000 00
122030 2204N 07456W 7518 02477 0000 +139 +090 005044 045 036 001 00
122100 2204N 07454W 7521 02471 9999 +137 +095 002041 041 032 000 00
122130 2204N 07451W 7519 02473 9998 +136 +098 003043 044 034 000 00
122200 2204N 07449W 7519 02471 9999 +133 +101 008044 045 037 001 00
122230 2204N 07447W 7519 02467 9995 +133 +100 005046 047 040 001 00
122300 2204N 07445W 7518 02462 9976 +147 +097 004047 048 041 000 00

[NDG]

Can someone explain why this system fared so much better than previous systems this season?

She's away from the death ridge and its northerly shear.
Away from SAL also. She's probably a preview of what the rest of the storms or tropical waves that get to this general area will probably become as it looks like this is the best area with the best environment, as long as they stay away from Hispaniola.

[bob rulz]

Kind of surprised that this is only 115mph looking at its appearance on satellite. It could pass as a strong cat 3/low-end cat 4 (130-135mph).

[littlevince]

[SENClander]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
741 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/TRACK OF
IRENE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE STORM WILL MAKE A DIRECT HIT.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE STORM ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR...AND THIS DISTANCE MAY CONTINUE TO GROW AS MOST OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC TRACK. STORM
IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH THE TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE RAISED FOR THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS LITTLE MORE THAN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH
THAT SAID...THE STORM IS STILL CLOSE TO 4 DAYS OUT AND TRACK
ERRORS WITH IRENE HAVE AVERAGED 175 NM. WHILE UNLIKELY...IRENE
COULD STILL END UP PASSING WEST OF CAPE FEAR BRINGING HIGHEST
WINDS/SURGE TO THE NORTHERN SC/SOUTHERN NC COAST. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS STORM AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THE TRACK SHIFT WEST
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

[RL3AO]

556
URNT15 KNHC 241232
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 22 20110824
122230 2039N 07328W 6963 03104 //// +095 //// 257042 047 /// /// 05
122300 2038N 07327W 6972 03091 //// +084 //// 258043 046 /// /// 05
122330 2037N 07325W 6958 03109 //// +082 //// 249043 044 /// /// 05
122400 2036N 07323W 6962 03102 //// +088 //// 250044 045 /// /// 05
122430 2035N 07322W 6973 03093 //// +080 //// 245048 051 /// /// 05
122500 2035N 07320W 6965 03105 //// +078 //// 240051 052 /// /// 05
122530 2034N 07318W 6967 03101 //// +077 //// 232050 051 /// /// 05
122600 2033N 07317W 6967 03103 //// +080 //// 230049 050 /// /// 05
122630 2032N 07315W 6969 03101 //// +084 //// 229050 051 /// /// 05
122700 2031N 07313W 6969 03102 //// +088 //// 231050 051 /// /// 05
122730 2030N 07312W 6967 03103 //// +086 //// 232050 051 /// /// 05
122800 2029N 07310W 6967 03107 //// +085 //// 231051 051 /// /// 05
122830 2029N 07308W 6967 03105 //// +085 //// 231049 050 /// /// 05
122900 2028N 07307W 6970 03103 //// +085 //// 232048 049 /// /// 05
122930 2027N 07305W 6967 03109 //// +085 //// 231049 050 /// /// 05
123000 2026N 07304W 6967 03109 //// +085 //// 232049 050 /// /// 05
123030 2025N 07302W 6971 03108 //// +085 //// 231049 050 /// /// 05
123100 2025N 07300W 6965 03115 //// +086 //// 230048 049 /// /// 05
123130 2025N 07258W 6967 03114 //// +090 //// 230050 050 /// /// 05
123200 2026N 07256W 6971 03114 //// +086 //// 230048 049 /// /// 05
$$
;



013
URNT15 KWBC 241233
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 26 20110824
122330 2204N 07443W 7521 02458 9969 +149 +102 000045 046 042 001 00
122400 2204N 07441W 7518 02458 9970 +147 +107 359046 046 042 002 00
122430 2204N 07439W 7516 02460 9969 +144 +107 002051 053 047 002 00
122500 2204N 07437W 7521 02445 9965 +141 +117 000052 053 048 001 00
122530 2204N 07435W 7510 02463 9965 +142 +113 000047 048 047 002 00
122600 2204N 07433W 7514 02453 9962 +138 +143 008044 048 044 010 00
122630 2204N 07431W 7511 02452 9956 +138 //// 014046 049 052 021 01
122700 2204N 07429W 7504 02458 9951 +137 //// 015055 058 053 021 01
122730 2204N 07427W 7511 02436 9940 +135 //// 019060 062 052 015 01
122800 2204N 07425W 7504 02442 9934 +140 //// 027057 062 051 011 01
122830 2204N 07423W 7512 02432 9930 +142 //// 026053 055 /// /// 05
122900 2204N 07421W 7515 02422 9925 +142 //// 023053 054 /// /// 05
122930 2204N 07419W 7517 02417 9918 +142 //// 024050 052 /// /// 05
123000 2204N 07417W 7510 02417 9910 +144 //// 024047 048 /// /// 05
123030 2204N 07415W 7512 02413 9907 +146 +148 023047 049 /// /// 03
123100 2204N 07413W 7514 02409 9904 +145 +148 021047 048 /// /// 03
123130 2204N 07411W 7509 02409 9898 +146 +148 018046 048 /// /// 03
123200 2204N 07409W 7514 02399 9888 +153 +143 016043 044 /// /// 03
123230 2204N 07407W 7512 02395 9883 +151 +143 017045 047 050 005 00
123300 2204N 07405W 7508 02395 9879 +150 +143 017046 047 047 003 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view with 5AM EDT track:

[littlevince]

[RL3AO]

492
URNT15 KNHC 241242
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 23 20110824
123230 2027N 07254W 6968 03116 //// +086 //// 233051 052 /// /// 05
123300 2028N 07252W 6974 03110 //// +077 //// 232051 054 /// /// 05
123330 2029N 07250W 6961 03124 //// +080 //// 229051 053 /// /// 05
123400 2030N 07248W 6970 03110 //// +080 //// 224051 053 /// /// 05
123430 2030N 07248W 6970 03110 //// +090 //// 225049 049 /// /// 05
123500 2031N 07244W 6964 03114 //// +095 //// 225049 050 /// /// 05
123530 2032N 07242W 6967 03111 //// +087 //// 225047 048 /// /// 05
123600 2033N 07239W 6967 03109 //// +090 //// 226051 052 /// /// 05
123630 2034N 07237W 6967 03109 //// +094 //// 224051 051 /// /// 05
123700 2035N 07235W 6969 03108 //// +093 //// 223050 050 /// /// 05
123730 2036N 07233W 6966 03110 //// +091 //// 223051 051 /// /// 05
123800 2037N 07231W 6969 03105 //// +092 //// 221050 051 /// /// 05
123830 2038N 07229W 6970 03108 //// +082 //// 219051 052 /// /// 05
123900 2038N 07227W 6967 03107 //// +078 //// 220049 052 /// /// 05
123930 2039N 07225W 6967 03110 //// +095 //// 219047 049 /// /// 05
124000 2040N 07223W 6963 03115 //// +090 //// 218047 048 /// /// 05
124030 2041N 07221W 6967 03114 //// +095 //// 216048 049 /// /// 05
124100 2042N 07219W 6966 03115 //// +099 //// 214048 049 /// /// 05
124130 2043N 07216W 6970 03110 //// +099 //// 214050 050 /// /// 05
124200 2044N 07214W 6966 03119 //// +095 //// 211049 049 /// /// 05
$$
;

[deltadog03]

Looks like Irene is feeling the Ridge again...She has def. speed up just a bit from yesterday. Today is DEF. the most important day of the next couple (with regards to the potential track) The ridge is suppose to be beat back up later today with an incoming short wave over the great lakes....Loop of the steering...You can see that the ridge is back (temp.) Thanks Aric for the link....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[RL3AO]

256
URNT15 KWBC 241243
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 27 20110824
123330 2204N 07403W 7516 02381 9869 +154 +140 015048 049 047 001 00
123400 2204N 07401W 7512 02379 9860 +155 +147 009049 049 048 003 00
123430 2204N 07359W 7511 02376 9859 +149 +150 011049 050 050 000 00
123500 2204N 07357W 7511 02366 9846 +154 +147 007051 052 049 002 00
123530 2204N 07355W 7510 02359 9830 +160 +150 003051 052 052 003 00
123600 2204N 07353W 7510 02347 9820 +158 +148 000051 052 053 003 00
123630 2204N 07351W 7512 02333 9809 +154 +150 000054 055 055 001 00
123700 2204N 07349W 7508 02324 9792 +156 +159 006060 062 054 001 00
123730 2204N 07347W 7512 02303 9768 +165 +152 005061 064 056 003 00
123800 2204N 07345W 7511 02282 9738 +179 +126 002065 067 061 002 00
123830 2204N 07343W 7505 02271 9716 +175 +140 001066 068 061 000 00
123900 2204N 07341W 7514 02232 9685 +174 +156 356070 070 066 001 00
123930 2204N 07339W 7512 02206 9644 +187 +157 346072 075 067 004 00
124000 2204N 07337W 7516 02173 9588 +219 +151 340069 074 070 002 00
124030 2203N 07334W 7548 02109 9554 +232 +149 331048 059 048 001 00
124100 2203N 07332W 7533 02113 9552 +215 +142 314032 036 033 003 00
124130 2203N 07330W 7541 02093 9548 +206 +142 284021 025 /// /// 03
124200 2205N 07328W 7515 02115 9544 +199 +143 218010 013 025 001 00
124230 2206N 07327W 7523 02105 9549 +190 +150 172020 024 024 000 03
124300 2207N 07325W 7525 02107 9552 +193 +148 159025 027 027 000 00

[sandyb]

Can someone explain to me why our local met on tv is saying he thinks the models are over doing the eastward track and he thinks tomorrow that the models will be back to the west over us here in NC

[littlevince]

[hurricaneCW]

I really think were the models are now is the furthest east this thing could go, there's not a huge trough turning this away like there was with Earl, I think we may very well see shifts back west later today or tonight.

[GCANE]

Can someone explain why this system fared so much better than previous systems this season?

She's away from the death ridge and its northerly shear.
Away from SAL also. She's probably a preview of what the rest of the storms or tropical waves that get to this general area will probably become as it looks like this is the best area with the best environment, as long as they stay away from Hispaniola.

The other systems all were experiencing cycles of intensification and weakening.

Roughly, a repeating pattern of 12hrs intensification followed by 12 hrs weakening.

I showed many times, with AMSU sounding data, that the cores were being compressed during the weakening part of the cycle.

The core would bounce back to a normal height during the intensification part.

I didn't see this phenomena with Irene.

I have a theory that solar activity was high during those times and was anomalously heating the ionosphere which in turn pushed down on the troposphere.

[RL3AO]

280
URNT15 KNHC 241252
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 24 20110824
124230 2044N 07212W 6968 03118 //// +094 //// 210049 050 /// /// 05
124300 2045N 07210W 6966 03120 //// +084 //// 206048 050 /// /// 05
124330 2047N 07209W 6967 03119 //// +080 //// 203049 051 /// /// 05
124400 2049N 07208W 6965 03121 //// +088 //// 200045 047 /// /// 05
124430 2051N 07208W 6967 03115 //// +092 //// 201042 042 /// /// 05
124500 2053N 07209W 6967 03116 //// +090 //// 201044 044 /// /// 05
124530 2054N 07210W 6968 03113 //// +089 //// 201045 045 /// /// 05
124600 2055N 07211W 6967 03115 //// +096 //// 203046 047 /// /// 05
124630 2057N 07213W 6967 03114 //// +099 //// 204044 046 /// /// 05
124700 2058N 07214W 6969 03109 //// +098 //// 205043 043 /// /// 05
124730 2059N 07216W 6970 03105 //// +100 //// 208044 047 /// /// 05
124800 2101N 07217W 6967 03104 //// +089 //// 208050 052 /// /// 05
124830 2102N 07218W 6967 03103 //// +083 //// 208050 052 /// /// 05
124900 2103N 07220W 6965 03104 //// +080 //// 203053 059 /// /// 05
124930 2105N 07221W 6976 03095 //// +085 //// 203047 048 /// /// 05
125000 2106N 07223W 6960 03112 //// +083 //// 202047 048 /// /// 05
125030 2107N 07224W 6969 03101 //// +082 //// 205051 052 /// /// 05
125100 2109N 07225W 6967 03101 //// +093 //// 202052 053 /// /// 05
125130 2110N 07227W 6967 03101 //// +095 //// 200052 052 /// /// 05
125200 2112N 07228W 6967 03097 //// +093 //// 200054 055 /// /// 05
$$
;

[deltadog03]

Can someone explain to me why our local met on tv is saying he thinks the models are over doing the eastward track and he thinks tomorrow that the models will be back to the west over us here in NC

IDK...Personal opinion??? All of the tracks (models) along or just east of the outer banks. Is it possible that this comes closer to you....ya sure, but likely not really.....All about timing. She will move quicker today, with the ridge having built back in (TEMP) Hope that helps